USA 2025 / Weimar Republic 1933

TRUMP IS CARRYING OUT A REVOLUTION AGAINST STATE INSTITUTIONS

As Trump leaves behind six months of his second presidential term, which began on January 20, what does the political vortex the US is going through tell us?

What is clear is that Trump has launched a revolution against state institutions, and his goal is to reshape the state structure in his own image. The agenda is dominated by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids on the streets and the constitutional crisis they have created in the country; economic and legal pressures on higher education institutions; and threatening lawsuits against opposition media outlets and the law firms that defend them.

Threats of arrest against Democratic governors and mayors, mass layoffs in the judiciary, revocations of citizenship, and politically motivated retaliatory lawsuits complete the current picture. This picture indicates a new political formation in the US where the line between leadership and tyranny has vanished. These developments, each of which serves as a warning in its own right, point to the erosion of the principle of the 'separation of powers' and indicate that Trump is attempting to consolidate all state power within himself through extraordinary authorities.

Trump had demanded that federal inspectors be appointed to Harvard University to oversee all academic departments and courses to ensure ideological alignment with the government; upon the rejection of this proposal, he froze the $2.2 billion in federal grants and $60 million in contracts that the university was set to receive.

Evaluating the situation on April 15, law professor Andrew Manuel Crespo stated that such a scene could only be seen in countries where dictators have come to power.

In a speech delivered in San Francisco on April 22, former US Vice President Al Gore emphasized the damage Trump has inflicted on democratic institutions, describing Trump as, "someone who wants to gain more power at any cost" and reminded his audience that the American Constitution was written by the Founding Fathers precisely to protect the country against "threats identical to Trump."

How is Trump so successful on the path to becoming an autocrat?

ARTIFICIAL CRISES, EXTRAORDINARY POWERS

The most defining and constantly recurring element in Trump's style of governance is his endless 'crises'.

Trump has declared eight different states of emergency so far by misusing 'The National Emergencies Act of 1976,' which grants the executive branch over 120 'emergency' powers. In doing so, he has bypassed Congress and the federal bureaucracy, legitimizing his own overreach of authority.

In other words, by declaring and inciting 'emergencies,' he creates the political maneuvering space he desires through the destruction caused by the crisis. It is legally possible to invalidate Trump's 'emergency' orders. However, a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress is required to override a veto, and this is not possible under the current parliamentary arithmetic dominated by Republicans.

Amidst the fentanyl crisis, energy crisis, and trade war crisis, Trump made his most alarming move in June against crowds protesting ICE arrests. Despite no request from California Governor Gavin Newsom, Trump took 4,000 California National Guard troops under his own authority and sent them to Los Angeles. Furthermore, by deploying 700 Marines to the streets on June 9, he effectively politicized the American military to serve his own agenda.

Exactly one day later, in a speech delivered at the Fort Bragg military base that carried the tone of political propaganda, Trump said, "We will save Los Angeles, we will make it free, clean, and safe again. We will not allow an American city to be occupied and conquered by a foreign enemy." he stated.

He accused Democratic administrations of not loving the U.S. and emphasized that they remained indifferent to—or even supported—this 'occupation'.

Claiming that the American military was fighting against an internal invasion, he asserted that he had saved the city of Los Angeles from "destruction." Declaring himself the President who loves the American military the most in history, Trump signaled that he could call the military again to cities governed by Democrats where "crime reigns supreme" whenever he deemed it necessary.

In a speech he gave in Iowa on July 3, he targeted the administrations of Chicago, New York City, and Los Angeles, declaring that "the entire city has been taken over by criminals." Referring to Democrats who did not vote for his tax law, his remarks, "I hate them. I cannot tolerate them because I truly believe they hate our country," drew significant attention.

On July 9, regarding New York City and Washington D.C., he used the expression, "We can take control of the administration by electing the right people in places where there is crime."

At this point, the issue of 'illegal immigrants' is essentially a strategic pretext for Trump. His real goal is to use the military and ICE for provocation, fuel protests, and portray Democratic administrations as incompetent and ineffective through the resulting images of looting and violence. Therefore, images of gas-masked protesters burning cars and waving the Mexican flag are exactly what the Trump administration desires.

So much so that a senior White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, summarized the situation regarding what happened in Los Angeles by saying, "we couldn't have written a better script ourselves." Trump's goal is to use the extraordinary Presidential powers offered by the "emergency" law to make seizing control of state administrations appear routine and legitimate wherever he sees political benefit.

When viewed from a historical perspective, the policy Trump is pursuing is reminiscent of the process that began with the Reichstag fire on February 27, 1933, and culminated in Adolf Hitler seizing control of the State of Bavaria on March 15, using the social unrest incited by his paramilitary stormtroopers as a pretext. In this respect, the powers and activities of ICE—a civilian agency with a $70 billion budget, larger than that of the French military ($47.2 billion), and which is essentially accountable only to Trump—are suspicious.       

Speaking on July 9, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said that Los Angeles is being used as a testing ground, and that the general public's attitude is essentially being tested through external intervention in state governance. If you can seize control of the second-largest city in the U.S. without seeing social resistance, you can always repeat this in a similar way in another city. California Governor Gavin Newsom, while noting that California is a first but will not be the last, emphasizes the indifference of Congress and the loss of the balance of power between the legislative, executive, and judicial branches.  

THE NOVEMBER 2026 MIDTERM ELECTIONS WILL BE A TEST AND WILL BE EVENTFUL

The November 2026 midterm elections are of vital importance for Trump's political career. If the arithmetic in Congress shifts in favor of the Democrats, the path to Trump's impeachment will be cleared, and accusations of constitutional violations and abuse of power will be brought to the agenda by the Democrats. For this reason, Republicans need to maintain their numerical superiority in both chambers of Congress. However, after the $1 trillion budget cut to the national health insurance program (Medicaid), which affects 70 million Americans, and new bureaucratic hurdles, it is highly likely that the 2026 midterms will backfire on the Republicans. The changes made to this program, which one in five American citizens benefits from, will cause 17 million people to lose their health insurance by 2034. Following this law, which will make it harder to access 'food stamps' used by 42 million low-income people and will cause the closure of nursing homes and hospitals in rural areas, it is very difficult for Republicans to retain their seats in the 2026 elections under normal circumstances. So, how did Trump pass this law even though he knew it would jeopardize the elections?  

After losing the 2020 presidential election, Trump claimed the election was stolen, attempted to overturn the results, and turned a blind eye as the mobs he incited stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Will he risk the 2026 midterm elections?

The Trump administration could legitimize interference in elections using "emergency" powers by creating a crisis environment, as we saw in the case of Los Angeles. For example, if he expresses the view that local governments are not adequately protecting their computer systems, the postponement of elections, the seizure of administration in states, and the arrest of election officials could come to the agenda. He might accomplish this time what he could not in the 2020 presidential election. Moreover, unlike his first presidential term, Trump now has a cabinet that will carry out his every order without question. The FBI, the Department of Defense, and the Department of Justice are composed of bureaucrats loyal to Trump.

In March, Trump requested that Attorney General Pamela Bondi investigate certain state election officials on suspicion of committing irregularities in previous elections. In a letter sent to nine states, Bondi demanded that state and local governments send documents regarding election management procedures, including the voting machines used, as well as all voter lists, including "personal information," to the Department of Justice. Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold, in her findings, draws attention to election uncertainty, stating, "If we look at the big picture, Donald Trump is trying to relive the 2020 election, and his goal is to disrupt and destabilize the upcoming 2026 and 2028 election processes."

Trump knows very well what will trigger his opponent in order to create political maneuvering room for himself. His policies, driven by a lust for power and control, are guided by the view that "blue states are not America." At this point, the November 2026 midterm elections serve as a test for the social and ideological evolution of American politics.