When will the US-Iran war end?

Let no one have any doubts,

A ground operation cannot be carried out in Iranian territory.

It is practically a natural fortress. And no war without a ground operation can reach a conclusion. Because the words of the Ottoman statesman Halil Rıfat Pasha, "The place you cannot reach is not yours," still hold true.

Let us look at Iran's neighbors;

To the north are Turkmenistan and Turkey. Turkmenistan, which has solidified its internal structure and remains under Russian influence, will not permit a ground operation.

The situation for Turkey is not like the Iraq War. Although Turkey said "No" to a Northern Iraq ground operation in Parliament with the March 1st memorandum, and later gave permission through the government, current conditions are very different. For Turkey to enter the war would mean the collapse of its fragile economy alongside a war economy, and the fragmentation of the country's territory.

Turkey cannot risk this.

To the west of Iran lies Iraq.

Remember, it started in 1980 and lasted for 7 years. And 1 million people lost their lives. As a result, both countries exhausted their resources to the end; Iraq was destroyed, but Iran remained standing.

Iran is not like the 20-year Iraq or the 3-5 year Syria.

To the south of Iran is the Persian Gulf. A naval operation is impossible because there is the Strait of Hormuz. America cannot even get close.

To the east are Pakistan and Afghanistan. The geography of both countries does not permit a ground operation. Besides, America could not hold on in Afghanistan and withdrew its troops at one point.

Therefore, a ground operation against Iran is not possible.

Let us come to the air operation;

If an air operation were effective, America would have been successful in Afghanistan. If by air operation one means missile wars, Iran has already stockpiled more than enough missiles. It will not be fooled by 3-5 missiles launched from American aircraft carriers.

Even if, hypothetically, America turned Iran into hell with missile attacks, it would not matter.

Iran is already physically living in hell. Hunger, famine, disease, housing problems, and so on. It would not be effective.

Moreover, Iran has a deep-rooted state history in terms of its past and life. It possesses a state culture that began with the Persians. If we also count the Medes and the Elamites, it is older than 3,000 years. A 3,000-year-old state cannot be destroyed by 3-5 air operations.

So, can it be destroyed from within?

At this point, that does not seem very possible either.

Because of this war, the leftists, rightists, religious, and non-religious people within Iran have united.

Due to Iran's deep-rooted state tradition, it has responded to this attack made against it with a "nationalist" reflex.

Furthermore, it is the biggest mistake for America that Reza Pahlavi, who is thought to lead the country to be established by fueling a civil war, started his work from Jerusalem, from the Wailing Wall.

Because, although there is a vein of brotherhood between Jews and Muslims stemming from Abraham in terms of Islamic roots, blood is now flowing from this vein. Muslims view Israel with a Zionist perspective due to its expansionist policy in the Middle East. And they are not considered wrong in this.

The idea that someone from Israel will come to lead the Iranian Azeri Turks, who are supposedly going to rebel, and save them—this is not possible. On the other hand, those who govern Iran are already Turks.

It is impossible to understand how America, which is an expert in psychological warfare and fragmenting countries through internal rebellions, made such a mistake.

So, can it get the United Nations behind it, as it did while fragmenting Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, and Syria?

A big no. Europe is in open opposition, while the Arabs are in a silent wait. While Europe reacts openly, the Arabs are waiting for the end of the madman Trump with the mindset of "as long as he doesn't touch me."

What about the Security Council?

China, France, Russia, Britain, and America.

According to some, the gang of 5; according to others, the 5-man squad that rules the world.

Well, this five, which looked like each other for their interests just yesterday, has now turned into five misfits.

Britain has approved the use of its own bases against Iran in line with its defense objectives. But "specific and limited." To prevent Iran's missile attacks in the region and to protect the lives of civilians, primarily British citizens.

France is the same.

Italy and Spain are already against the war. They challenged America.

Therefore, world support is not fully behind Trump either.

However, the citizens of these countries do not think the same. It is a strong possibility that the American and European publics will not "vote for the warmonger and the madman Trump" in the upcoming elections due to the economic and moral burden the war will bring, and will kick these men out in the first election.

In other words, American and European voters do not want war. If they were beating the war drums, they would not have elected the Muslim Zohran Mamdani as a New York City Council member, for example.

What I mean is that the war will not last 3-5 weeks as Trump says. 3-5 years, not even that. If you ask me how long it will last, in my opinion, the elections in America and the increase in anti-war protests will determine the process.

This business will end when Trump realizes he will lose the election in his domestic politics in America. He will leave this region immediately. Of course, by finding an excuse. America, which sold out the Kurds, will of course sell out Israel too.

If one must give a timeframe for when it will end, this war will first turn into a low-intensity conflict, and then it will end according to the public opinion polls and survey results that Trump will conduct regarding the 61st United States presidential election, which is planned to be held on November 7, 2028.

That will take at least 2 years...