Could a Pakistan-India war break out?

Make no mistake, it could!

Following the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir on April 22, which claimed the lives of 26 people, India and Pakistan have once again come to the brink of war.

The two countries have begun to trade threats.

India has canceled visas for Pakistani citizens and given Pakistanis under the exemption category 48 hours to leave the country, starting from April 24.

Then, it made its most critical move and announced that it was suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 under the guarantee of the World Bank.

Pakistan's retaliation was not delayed. It expelled Indian diplomats and closed its airspace to Indian aircraft.

Although a full-scale war has not yet begun between them, the border skirmishes are not a good sign.

Tensions are high.

If they had never meddled with the waters of the Indus, the issue might have cooled down with a few minor border skirmishes and plenty of domestic rhetoric.

But India has grabbed it by such a sensitive point that every step it takes is of vital importance for Pakistan.

In other words, there is a real existential issue at stake.

Let us explain it as best we can.

With this treaty, the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers in the east of the Indus basin were allocated to India, and 80 percent of the water in the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers in the west was allocated to Pakistan.

Today, Pakistan meets more than 80 percent of the water it uses in agriculture—which corresponds to 90 percent of its food production—and approximately 30 percent of its hydroelectric energy from the Indus basin.

This accounts for nearly a quarter of its gross domestic product.

In other words, the Indus basin is, in a sense, the country's life source, its lifeline. That is why it is viewed as a matter of national security.

It would not be an exaggeration to say that if the water is cut off, life as we know it in Pakistan would cease to exist.

They already consider this a "cause for war."

One should not dismiss the fact that former Foreign Minister Zardari said, "Either our water will flow through this river, or the blood of the Indians will flow."

Is it practically possible for India to interfere with the water in the Indus basin?

There are debates that India cannot cut off the water even if it wanted to, especially during the rainy season when the flow rate of the rivers is very high.

But let us not even get into that, because even the mere mention of the issue in a few sentences causes alarm bells to ring in Pakistan.

Especially in the dry season, a 10-15 percent drop in production would mean the collapse of the rural economy, which depends on industrial agriculture, and it is impossible for Pakistan to risk that.

I did not think they took the issue this seriously until I heard it from government officials in Islamabad in 2007.

One of them had said that while a water war did not break out between Turkey and Syria, it is likely that a water war could break out between India and us. He then added that India uses it as a diplomatic lever against Pakistan, complaining, "Water should not be a threat or a tool for blackmail. But whenever India wants to threaten us, it brings up the water issue."

18 years have passed since those words were spoken.

It appears that the possibility of a water war starting, even if the pretext is a terrorist attack, is steadily increasing.

Considering that both of these countries possess nuclear capabilities, there is no situation here to be taken lightly. Moreover, they literally hate each other.

The armies of both countries are waiting with their fingers on the trigger.

It is estimated that tens of millions of people in the region would lose their lives in a potential nuclear war.

If such a war were to break out, its global political, social, and economic impacts would also be extremely significant.

China is behind Pakistan, and America is behind India.

It is a bit too early to comment on whether America and China will face off over this crisis, but let us also note that for us, it is a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation.

Before concluding the article, let us set an appointment for next week to address the background of the issue, which is rarely discussed, and let us put an end to our article by celebrating May 1st Labor Day for all workers.