Did Fidan go to seek approval?

There are only 10 days left until March 31. Turkey's agenda seems entirely locked on the local elections.

The situation is chaotic.

The ruling party is determined to win back the municipalities it lost in 2019.

Everyone is very confused about what kind of Turkey awaits us after April 1. But one thing is certain: Turkey is heading toward a breaking point.

From now on, nothing will be the same.

Putting aside what is written and drawn on the thin line between conspiracy theories and reality, it seems that three closely related important issues will be at the top of the agenda in the coming period.

The first is the future of Erdoğan's Neo-Hamidian regime.

The issue of whether the dystopia we live in will become institutionalized or not. Can Turkey move toward a constitutional amendment after the local elections that would keep Erdoğan in power for life?

The real question that stands out here concerns what comes after...

That is, when his time comes, who will replace him?

The second is the transatlantic dimension of this.

Will the US say to Erdoğan, "You designate someone to replace you, and if we approve, we will continue to work with them"?

Or will it send a message to plan for what comes after by saying, "Enough is enough, you have completed your mission"?

The third is whether Erdoğan, while he is still capable, will point to a successor, or will he hold the reins until the very last moment?

The answers to all these questions seem likely to trigger discussions that, one way or another, are already surfacing in different places.

Although it does not come to the forefront much amidst the hustle and bustle of the local elections, the answers to these three questions are being quietly sought in Ankara.

There are some names circulating for the post-Erdoğan era, but for now, these are nothing more than rumors.

Cliques within the ruling party may want to promote their own favorites through the grapevine, or they may be deliberately putting forward certain names to ensure Erdoğan crosses them out.

However, a development that took place two weeks ago was noteworthy.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan went to the US for the Turkey-US Strategic Mechanism Meeting.

The agenda of this visit, which took place especially after Sweden's reservation regarding NATO membership was lifted, was already more or less clear.

In fact, at the press conference he held while leaving the US, he listed the topics they discussed, stating that they had exchanged views with his American counterparts on main topics such as energy, economy, finance, fiscal policy, counter-terrorism, and regional issues including Gaza, Syria, and Ukraine, and noted that they had clearly stated Turkey's position on these issues.

There were no surprises up to this point.

But on Hakan Fidan's first day in Washington, an article written by American academic Michael Rubin, who is no stranger to those interested in these matters in Turkey, created new question marks in people's minds.

Rubin openly emphasized and criticized the idea that Hakan Fidan aspires to govern Turkey after Erdoğan:

“Rather than rolling out the red carpet for Fidan or supporting his ambitions to be Erdoğan’s successor, it would be better to defend US interests, regional security, and Turkey’s own freedom and ability to develop. If there is any figure who deserves the title of the Global Magnitsky Act, it is Fidan,” he said, making his stance clear from the very beginning.”

Let us underline in bold that Rubin's reference to the Global Magnitsky Act is particularly noteworthy.

Could this be a flare or a message for the coming period?

Apart from this, another point stands out in the article.

Erdoğan's desire to visit the US before the end of the year, and Fidan seeking support for this in Washington...

Rubin says;

“Officially, Fidan wants to reset relations. Discussing defense and energy cooperation, as well as the current wars in Ukraine and Gaza, are also high on the agenda. Fidan may also want Erdoğan to make an official visit to the White House before the end of the year.

... Succession discussions are very common in Turkey. Conspiracy is a part of Turkish political culture. Erdoğan received significant support for the premiership when former American officials like Richard Perle introduced him in Washington. Therefore, he assumes that others will seek a green light from Washington to take the helm of Turkey.”

So, will Washington give Erdoğan the green light?

It is difficult to make a prediction because it is not clear whether Joe Biden will be sitting in that chair a year from now. He knows that inviting Erdoğan for an official visit and hosting him at the White House would have political consequences for him. He would not want to face the reaction of the Jewish lobby just before the elections.

If he takes that risk, he will expect significant concessions from Turkey in return.

There is no need to beat around the bush; if Erdoğan sits at the table with Biden, this bargain would involve Ankara recognizing the Kurdish structure in Syria and pressing the button for a Kurdish opening in Turkey in exchange for US support for the institutionalization of the one-man regime.

This could strengthen Biden's hand domestically before the election, and he might risk meeting with Erdoğan.

Let us conclude our article by saying that we need to carefully watch the developments on the Ankara-Washington line in the coming period.