Give up Istanbul, get Demirtaş!

We don't know yet if it will stick.

That is, Başak Demirtaş will be the DEM candidate for Istanbul in the local elections, the votes will be split, Ekrem İmamoğlu will lose, Murat Kurum will win, the AKP will take back Istanbul, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will be at peace; in return, Selahattin Demirtaş will be released!

As far as can be understood, this is exactly the scenario!

These things have been written and drawn constantly since Başak Demirtaş's candidacy came to the agenda. There is no hidden or secret aspect to the matter.

But in the language of diplomats, not many have dwelled on "contingency planning."

If we take a closer look;

The DEM members are in close contact with the CHP, discussing where and how they can cooperate in the election. But the real subject of the bargain is Istanbul. Because everyone knows that DEM is the key party in Istanbul. It is thought to have around 7-9 percent of the vote. Not just their direct support, but even their decision not to field a candidate is of critical importance for the CHP!

However, Kurdish politicians are at a point of making a new decision after the May 14-28 elections. We cannot gain anything by acting together with the opposition, so let's reconcile with the government, they say, preparing to fall back into line with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

All balances in Turkey could change.

For this reason, they are conducting back-door diplomacy with the AKP quietly. It is even said that the bargaining file is quite thick. It is said that the DEM members have even asked for written guarantees from the Palace for the abandonment of the trustee practice in critical places in exchange for support, and for the steps to be taken after the election.

We do not know for now the answer to the question of how they risk this again after not developing a politically conditioned reflex in any way and being betrayed by the AKP dozens of times.

Of course, when political bargaining is transparent, the Palace's sycophant media attacks the CHP as if to say "beat the weak," but when it comes to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, no one makes a sound.

Let's give the AKP its due!

As they say, if the master does it, not even a leaf trembles!

Moreover, if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan were to put aside Başak Demirtaş's candidacy and come out tomorrow and say, for example, we will go into full cooperation with DEM in the local elections, and we will make a Kurdish opening after the election; it would take at most a few nanoseconds to convince his own base. He knows very well that no matter what he does or says, no question marks arise in the minds of the base he has enchanted with his Imam Hatip rhetoric.

As for Devlet Bahçeli, no one takes him very seriously. He already produces excuses for himself under any circumstances and supports the AKP in one way or another.

We can guess what happens next to some extent.

He will declare the CHP an enemy of the Kurds, say "let mothers and sisters not cry," and proceed through Islamic brotherhood, again saying that he has trampled all kinds of nationalism underfoot.

He will slip a few pennies into the hands of the 'Yes, but...' crowd, put a dab of honey in the mouths of the soft-brained pseudo-intellectuals; the sycophant press will start dancing with drums and pipes, and the aggressive pundits on news channels will get more and more excited. We don't know if the Kurdish voter will go and cast their vote for Murat Kurum, and if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will take Istanbul on March 31 and go to Eyüp Sultan or Hagia Sophia to perform a prayer of gratitude.

But what about after April 1st?

Will he shift into reverse again as he has done many times before, will he backtrack on what he said before the election and say, "Where did this opening come from?"

He might.

The Dolmabahçe issue is still in memory...

But he might not...

To make the one-man regime permanent, to completely change the country's political and administrative structure with a new constitution, and to pave the way for his heir, he could unhesitatingly press the button for a process that would shake Turkey to its core.

This is a simple matter of calculation for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan:

How do I maintain my power, how do I distribute the country's rent to the Islamist minority...

Let's continue...

If Selahattin Demirtaş is released thanks to his wife's candidacy, his political charisma will be severely damaged, that is a fact.

The issue also has Kandil and Imrali dimensions. Will the organization's mountain cadre and Abdullah Öcalan want Selahattin Demirtaş to be released?

It seems there is no reason for them not to want it. Selahattin Demirtaş getting out with the scenario in question would lower his prestige; this would strengthen the hands of both Imrali and Kandil; since he would lose his political influence, he would not pose an obstacle in the bargaining to be conducted with the AKP. After a while, he would become a political corpse and retire to his corner.

Let's come to the CHP;

Due to the inexperience of Özgür Özel, who took the helm in place of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the CHP is constantly wobbling.

While Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is conducting politics with forty foxes running in his head without letting any of their tails touch each other, and while he manages to keep his base behind him by distributing favors to everyone, Özgür Özel is just shouting until his throat is torn.

Even if he thinks he is influencing the masses this way, his capacity is not enough to develop result-oriented political tactics. Today's political developments show that the local election is not just a local election, and that the picture that will emerge after the election closely concerns the future of Turkey.

Unfortunately, the opposition is not very aware of this.

Let us end our article by saying let's not be surprised if the CHP wakes up to a major defeat on the morning of April 1st.