Hamas's gamble

"Once the West's project to bring the Brotherhood to power in the Middle East and North Africa via the Arab Spring collapsed, Hamas's shelf life also expired," after making this assessment, we had set today's date for the answer to the question, "Why did Hamas open the door to such a process that would lead to its total destruction by attacking Israel?"

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First of all, let us state that Hamas was aware that its expiration date had passed.

In its new strategy document published in 2017, a few years after the Brotherhood-affiliated governments in the Middle East and North Africa were toppled one by one, it did not even mention the name of the Brotherhood, to which it had pledged allegiance in its founding charter; in a sense, it wanted to send a message to the West: "Do not discard me like the others."

Those who closely follow developments in the Middle East saw that Hamas had been losing ground in the region for some time and was looking for a way out.

The fact that Israel began to normalize relations with Arab countries, primarily Saudi Arabia, without making any concessions on the Palestinian issue, had caused alarm bells to ring.

The fact that two arch-enemies, Iran and Saudi Arabia, sat down at the table and reached an agreement with China's intervention showed that the balances in the Middle East would change and a new strategic equation would be established.

In a Middle East where Iran and Saudi Arabia have made peace and Israel is getting closer to all Arab countries, the Palestinian issue would have been pushed to the background, if not shelved entirely.

It was clear that Hamas could not have a place in this picture!

Even though a religious, racist, and populist figure like Netanyahu was leading the country, Israel was strengthening its position against Arab countries and coming to the fore politically and diplomatically.

Moreover, things were not going well in the West Bank and Gaza.

In addition to the Netanyahu government's forced settlement of Israeli settlers on Palestinian lands, economic hardships, corruption, and increasing oppression with the suspension of democracy had exhausted people.

It was within such a picture that Hamas played a political gamble, the price of which would be paid with human lives.

Let us open a brief parenthesis here and emphasize once again that sentimentality does not mean much in international relations, that the main, fundamental determining factor is the cold, hard interests of countries, that countries strive entirely to maximize their own interests, and that leaders use rhetoric and sentimentality to consolidate their own base in domestic politics, and let us continue.

Hamas would either organize a very large and shocking attack and wait for Israel to retaliate blindly, and through this, ensure the international community takes action; it would sit at the table with Israel with the intervention of Western countries that would have to take public sensitivity into account; thus, it would both gain legitimacy and tie its security to an international agreement.

Furthermore, after such an agreement, the reconstruction of Palestine would come to the agenda, and billions of dollars would flow into Gaza.

Or, Israel would ignore the sensitivity of the international community and the suggestions of Western countries, lose its composure, and run over Hamas and Gaza like a steamroller.

Hamas took that risk.

It was more or less predicted that Israel would respond heavily after the attack from Gaza on October 7, which also targeted civilians, by ignoring human rights, the laws of war, international agreements, and conventions.

And that is exactly what happened!

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's words in Lebanon, "Just as bigger wars can emerge from this war, a historic peace can also emerge. Our President, Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, believes that it is possible to produce a historic peace here and is carrying out the necessary work for this," also show that Turkey is aware of this strategy of Hamas.

The Middle East has once again turned into a bloodbath.

On the other hand, although Israel is ruthlessly displaying all the capabilities of its terrible war machine on the field, let us note that the psychological superiority lies with Hamas.

For example, the "two-state solution," which had been shelved until a while ago, is back on the agenda,

The status of Jerusalem is being discussed again.

There is intense diplomatic traffic in the countries of the region.

Even these are noteworthy developments.

The fact that the retaliation Israel has been carrying out since October 7 has long since exceeded the measure of fairness, that it has turned into a massacre in Gaza, and that Palestinians are being fired upon regardless of whether they are children or adults, has naturally wounded the conscience of the international community severely.

The latest example of this was the attack on the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza before US President Biden's visit.

World public opinion rose up in the face of this brutality.

Even though Israel did not take responsibility after the attack and pointed to Hamas first and then Islamic Jihad, this was not taken into much consideration.

Israel's past criminal record is more than extensive.

The press conference held by the Deputy Minister of Health of Palestine in Gaza, Yusuf Abu al-Rish, among the corpses in the bombed hospital, was enough to make the world's skin crawl.

Hamas was waiting for such an attack to be carried out in order to consolidate its position in the psychological war it is waging against Israel, to mobilize the international community quickly, and to ensure that Western countries tell Israel to "stop" as soon as possible; let us not say it expected it, but let us state that it would want to take full advantage of the consequences of this crime against humanity.

Unfortunately, this is the ruthless reality of the Middle East!

Politics is, one way or another, conducted through human blood.

At the end of the day, "Will Hamas win this gamble, will its plans work out, will the pressure on Israel bring about a ceasefire or a peace process?" There are many questions waiting for answers, but as long as the games played over religion and sect in the Middle East and the calculations made do not end, days full of peace and prosperity seem very far away.

Finally, let us end our article by saying that surprising developments may occur in the Israel-US axis after Biden's visit.