Those who follow the Middle East closely know well that Israel is extremely reckless when its "own security" is at stake.
Even before you walk the streets of Tel Aviv, Haifa, or Jerusalem, you begin to feel the social paranoia in Israel the moment your plane's wheels touch the runway at Ben Gurion Airport.
This social paranoia is carefully nurtured by right-wing, racist, and bigoted governments.
Israel has no reservations about responding in kind to an attack on its territory.
It does not allow anyone to question this.
When the time comes, it recognizes neither the laws of war, nor international law, nor human rights!
Wherever it perceives a threat, it strikes without hesitation.
With the military technology, economic power, intelligence infrastructure it possesses, and the unconditional support it receives from the other side of the Atlantic, it acts in the Middle East as if it were walking through an unguarded village.
It ignores reactions from the international community and ensures the continued support of Western countries in particular through its lobbies and political connections.
These are things everyone knows!
We have already been witnessing this more than enough over the last 10 months regarding the Gaza issue.
However, when it thinks that some of the steps it takes might have strategic consequences, it seeks not necessarily the approval of America, but its "concrete assurance."
Those who read the diplomatic history of the Middle East over the last half-century with a close-up lens are aware of this.
The killing of Hamas leader Haniyeh yesterday at the residence where he was staying in Tehran must be evaluated from exactly this perspective.
Dozens, perhaps hundreds of questions remain behind that may never find an answer, but before we examine the issue under our own lens, let us recall the applause Netanyahu received in the US Congress last week.
Because this is where the crux of the matter lies.
He had given a speech at a joint session held upon an official invitation, compared Hamas's October 7 attacks to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 and the Al-Qaeda attacks on the Twin Towers in 2001, and thanked Biden for his support for Israel and for saying he was a "proud Zionist."
But what was truly remarkable was that he was given a standing ovation by members of Congress for a long time at the end of every sentence throughout his nearly hour-long speech.
In other words, America was both showing its support and, in effect, saying, "Go for it, champ, no one can stop you."
This was the visible side of the issue.
It is clear that it had been discussed in detail beforehand, a consensus had been reached, plans had been made, and a message had been sent to the international community with the "applause" show in Congress.
We do not yet know how anyone received and interpreted the message, but there must have been a weakness in understanding and making sense of it in Ankara, as they did not feel the need to warn Haniyeh, with whom they were quite friendly, beforehand, in the sense of "Do not go to Tehran. Netanyahu is not returning from America empty-handed."
Moreover, Hakan Fidan, the former intelligence chief who should have known about every bird flying in the Middle East and the new Foreign Minister, was also there.
When a retired diplomat friend of mine in Ankara said that despite all the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza, the support given by Congress was important and that attention should be paid to the steps Netanyahu would take from now on, I had started to think, "What more can he do?"
He was already continuing his operations in Gaza. He could strike Damascus and Lebanon whenever he wanted.
"Perhaps," I said to myself, "he will either occupy southern Lebanon as he did in 2006 or start targeting Hezbollah leaders."
But it had not crossed my mind that he could target both Hezbollah commander Fuad Muhsin Shukr in Beirut and Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran within about seven hours of each other.
Let's say Israel targeted Fuad Muhsin Shukr because it held Hezbollah responsible for the rocket attack on July 27 in the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Syrian Golan Heights, which has been under occupation since 1967, and which killed 12 children playing football.
Well, why did he eliminate Haniyeh now? Moreover, he did this in Tehran and immediately after the inauguration ceremony of Iran's new President, who does not hide his eagerness to open up to the world.
Since it is impossible for such an operation that will affect and even change political and strategic balances to have been carried out without America's knowledge and support, it is necessary to focus on the answers to the questions of who benefits from this and how it affects whom.
For example;
What kind of foreign policy will Iran's brand-new President follow from now on?
Who will replace Haniyeh?
Will there be a change in Hamas's politics and strategy?
What will be the fate of the consensus reached in Beijing a week ago with China taking the initiative?
The list is very long.
But the China issue needs to be followed more carefully from now on. It is no secret that every step Beijing takes in the Middle East causes great anxiety on the other side of the Atlantic.
In short, let us not say that all of this is also a warning to the countries that threaten Israel, but it is clear that the cards are being reshuffled in the Middle East.
It is difficult to say whether the government will throw Turkey into a fire with the irrational foreign policy it tries to conduct by looking from an ideological perspective, but let us end our article by saying that as long as we cannot solve this equation with many unknowns with our minds and logic, it is also clear that we will not be able to easily get out of the Middle East quagmire.
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