‘If the master does it, not even a leaf trembles’

In my column last Tuesday, I said that if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan were to come out today and push the button for a Kurdish opening, it would take him three nanoseconds at worst to convince his own base.

Some of my friends must have thought I was exaggerating, as I received calls and messages criticizing this assessment. 

There were those who said, 'The people won't buy it, he wouldn't dare do this anymore, he can't take such a step while the MHP is around, he would lose the support of nationalist voters, Turkey would rise up.' 

Others claimed he was keeping this on the agenda to win Istanbul, that he had no such actual intention, and that he was floating this idea to throw a bone to the Kurds and prevent them from supporting Ekrem İmamoğlu in the local elections.

There were even those who argued that Islamist Kurds are doing just fine and wouldn't want their comfort disturbed by any sort of opening.

They are all right in their own way.

How could Recep Tayyip Erdoğan easily convince his voters—nearly one in every three people who cast a ballot—on such a critically important issue, when Özgür Özel gets hit with a heavy barrage of fire even if he just intends to walk past the door of the DEM Party?

This is perhaps a subject for political psychology, political sociology, or psychiatrists interested in politics, but let us proceed through our own observations as journalists.

Retired Ambassador Onur Öymen is not only a diplomat but also a politician, as well as a writer who blends 40 years of diplomatic experience with his intellectual background to produce high-quality works.

During his time as a CHP deputy, I had asked him where Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s power to influence the masses came from.

"Directly the voice of an imam," he had said.

Before I had a chance to ask what he meant, he continued.

When our people go to Friday prayers, whatever the imam says—whether he gossips, talks about a match, or engages in politics—they see it as a divine message. This divine message is loaded into the imam's tone of voice, his emphasis, the words he uses, his gestures, and his facial expressions, and then transmitted. Thus, the perception of the mosque congregation is shaped. From then on, whenever they hear the same tone of voice, the same intonation, and the same emphasis, their subconscious is triggered, and they perceive what is being said as a divine message and accept it as absolute truth. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan does exactly this. Because he is an Imam Hatip graduate, he knows the 'imam voice' very well and uses it effectively when engaging in politics.

What Onur Öymen said was very clear.

The perception that whatever Recep Tayyip Erdoğan says carries a divine message and is beyond criticism or questioning was being carefully implanted into the subconscious of the conservative voters who make up the entire mosque congregation in Turkey.

When he takes the podium and speaks with his gestures, facial expressions, and emphasis, using that imam-specific tone of voice where he raises and lowers his voice according to the importance of the message he is delivering, he can easily lead his voters behind him.

The people of my country, who are gasping for air from hunger, who haven't had a bite of meat in months, who cannot pay their rent due to lack of money, who cannot light their stoves, who cannot give pocket money to their children, who haven't been able to buy a new shirt for years, and who think they are well-fed when they eat dry bread, do not find a single fault in Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and hold him blameless.

Can the irrational approaches seen in street interviews—where people say 'Whatever the Reis says is true, whatever the Reis does is right, if there is a problem, the Reis will solve it, is there anyone else to vote for besides the Reis?'—which infuriate those who look at issues with a slightly more worldly perspective, be explained by Onur Öymen’s findings?

The fact that his own voters do not find it strange when he calls something white today that he called black yesterday, when he calls someone his "friend" today whom he cursed and insulted yesterday, or when he starts by saying "As long as this soul remains in this body" and then completely changes his stance, and that no price is ever paid for these shifts, could be a lesson in political sociology!

No matter what anyone says, it must be appreciated.

Since 2002, he has made his conservative voters perform 180-degree turns perhaps dozens of times.

How the Ummah keeps up with the Reis's speed of rotation is a separate topic of discussion, but throughout his time in power, he became pro-American and was applauded, he became anti-American and anti-EU and was applauded again.

He received the same support from his voters both when he was practically handing the state over to the Gülenists and when he declared the Fethullahists terrorists. 

He started a secret Kurdish opening in 2008 and received nearly half the votes in the 2011 elections. 

He made a U-turn from the Kurdish opening in March 2015, and although he faltered slightly in the June 7 elections due to the economic crisis, he managed to maintain his power strongly in the November 1 elections by fortifying his base through security issues.

What was truly surprising was that in the referendum held one year after the trench operations in the Southeast in 2015-2016, 53 percent of the regional voters said "yes" to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan governing the country as a one-man leader. 

In the 2018 presidential election, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan received nearly 50 percent of the vote from the Southeast.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan crossed the finish line first again on May 14-28.

Leaving aside the incompetence of the opposition, their mistakes, and the absurdity of the 'Table of Six,' despite the economic and social crisis, terrorism, the problems created by refugees that have increasingly become a matter of national survival, inflation, corruption, and injustices, he managed to convince the masses he had enchanted using that 'imam voice' and align them behind him.

In summary, I still claim that even though the MHP is keeping him in power, if he were to say today 'I am launching a Kurdish opening,' it would not take three nanoseconds for his own voters to applaud, Turkey would not rise up, and the world would not shake!

Once upon a time, there was an imam in a village. Every Friday, he would preach that adultery had increased, immorality had increased, there would be an earthquake, stones would rain down on us, and the dome of the sky would collapse upon us. The congregation would listen to the imam with their heads bowed.

One day, the villagers caught the imam committing adultery with the dairy farmer's wife. Naturally, the village was up in arms. They started to berate the imam. The imam heard every insult and rebuke imaginable, and on top of that, they gave him a good beating. Just as they were about to throw the imam out of the mosque, one of the village's clever children jumped up and said, 'Wait.' I have a question for the imam.

- You said there would be an earthquake because we committed adultery, that stones would rain on us, and the dome of the sky would collapse on us. Look, you were committing adultery; there was no earthquake, no stones rained down on us, and the dome of the sky didn't collapse on us?

The imam, with his face covered in blood, straightened up while trying to pull up his trousers and answered in a tearful voice!

- If the master does it, not even a leaf trembles!

A lesson to be learned, let it be for Özgür Özel.

Of course, no one expects him to be a “master of politics” like Recep Tayyip Erdoğan! 

However, he needs to stop wavering politically, stand behind what he says, be resolute, not engage in politics with generic, hearsay sentences, and adopt an attitude and stance that can fortify his own voters.

Unfortunately, he did not pass the test well regarding the candidate selection process before the local elections!

As the country speeds downhill like a truck with broken brakes, let us end our article by saying that the CHP's brand-new chairman does not have much time left to come to his senses.