In plain sight...

We had written that the writing was on the wall regarding the cancellation of Ekrem İmamoğlu's diploma and his subsequent arrest.

The Political Research Center (SİYASAM), headed by the esteemed researcher Bekir Ali Yüksel, has prepared a very insightful simulation describing this process. It is a good resource for those who want to see the big picture.

In short, the "civil coup" that Özgür Özel named from the very first day has arrived in plain sight.

Let us take a structured look at the issue through this study!

1st phase: Operations targeting Istanbul, provincial and district chairs:

The operations conducted against district mayors in Istanbul were the first stage of the process leading to Ekrem İmamoğlu. The purpose of these operations was to establish the legitimacy of the move against İmamoğlu and to obtain testimonies from mayors against him.

The operation began with Esenyurt Mayor Ahmet Özer and continued with the arrest of Beşiktaş Mayor Rıza Akpolat. The detention of these figures provided an opportunity to gauge public reaction and paved the way toward İmamoğlu.

2nd phase: Political operation against the İYİ Party:

The İYİ Party faced a serious political operation because it was the party conducting the most effective opposition to the second opening process and Erdoğan. By transferring deputies from the İYİ Party at regular intervals, attempts were made to break the party's resistance and rhetorical power.

3rd phase: The detention of Ayşe Barım via the Gezi file:

The second step of the operation was implemented with the detention of Ayşe Barım through the Gezi Park case. Ayşe Barım was also a name quite close to Dilek İmamoğlu. This move served as a rehearsal for the large-scale operations to be carried out later in the Gezi Park case. At the same time, it was a clear intimidation directed at the masses and the art world who might consider taking to the streets against future legal violations. The message was clear: "Do not move, the price will be heavy."

4th phase: The arrest of Ümit Özdağ:

The other leg of the operation was directed at Ümit Özdağ. Özdağ was one of the actors who could mobilize Turkish nationalists and develop effective opposition to the new solution process being conducted with the PKK. He was neutralized as someone who could influence street protests and provide mass mobilization on social media.

The arrest of Özdağ was one of the most critical steps on the road to the solution process and the İmamoğlu operation. Because the street reflex lost one of its most effective callers. The government did this masterfully with its timing. Özdağ was taken the moment he was effective on the street, and the process was completed before society could organize its reaction. This was also one of the stages of testing the reaction society would give to the removal of İmamoğlu.

5th phase: Operation against the TÜSİAD President:

This was another intimidation given to the business world. The nerves of capital groups holding a considerable portion of the Turkish economy were touched. This step can be read as a simulation of possible operations to be carried out against major businessmen who supported Gezi Park. Just as the reflexes of the art and business worlds were tested during the Gezi process, the reaction of big capital was measured in the TÜSİAD move.

6th phase: Designing the traditional media:

In December, channels belonging to Ciner Holding, including Show TV, Habertürk, and Bloomberg, were sold for 800 million dollars. Rumors emerged that there were different groups behind the acquisition. The owner of Flash TV was arrested, operations were carried out on Halk TV, and the process of designing the media was completed.

7th phase: The Ekrem İmamoğlu Operation:

Ekrem İmamoğlu was arrested before he was announced as the CHP's presidential candidate. This step was similar to the simulation previously tried with Ümit Özdağ. Just as in the examples of Ayşe Barım and the TÜSİAD President, public reaction was measured in advance. At each stage, social and international reactions were analyzed before moving to the final move.

The operation against the TÜSİAD President could be a harbinger of larger steps toward business world figures. The messages given to the art and capital worlds in the process that started with Gezi were moved to a new phase at this stage. And finally, İsmail Saymaz was arrested.

Foreign policy factors paving the way for the İmamoğlu operation.

The operation against Ekrem İmamoğlu should be evaluated not only through the internal political equation but also with the opportunities that the international conjuncture offers the government. The fundamental elements that allow the government to commit this lawlessness and make the question "why now?" meaningful are fed by ruptures and new equations in foreign policy.

The administration changed in the US and pressure decreased.

With the end of the Biden administration and Trump's return to power, Washington's foreign policy approach toward Turkey underwent a radical change. The Biden era's emphasis on human rights, democracy, and the rule of law functioned as a boundary for the internal politics of countries like Turkey. In particular, pressures on the opposition and fundamental rights violations were on the American administration's radar. The Trump administration, on the other hand, is completely focused on its internal affairs. A structure has emerged that is far from an interventionist foreign policy understanding and does not limit authoritarian-leaning governments.

For the government, this means a period where its hands are freed and international pressures are minimized. The government saw the weakness of the reflexes coming from the West and found a ground where it could act more freely in implementing the steps it had been preparing for a long time.

The EU has become dependent on Turkey.

Europe has become dependent on Turkey with the deepening of the migration crisis. Countries like Germany and France, in particular, see Turkey as an actor that limits migration and acts as a buffer in the Middle East. This pushed the critical rhetoric regarding human rights and democratic standards that existed in the past in Turkey's relations with the EU into the background. Security and stability concerns pushed the EU to tolerate the current regime in Turkey. This situation was another factor that freed the government's hand.

The approaching intervention in Iran.

A more speculative but not-to-be-ignored factor is the changes that have emerged in Turkey's regional positioning. It is seen that the US and the Western bloc are trying to form a new front against Iran. The possibility of Turkey taking a position in this bloc, especially against Iran, is increasing. Such a positioning requires absolute control internally.

Israel's expansion of its security paradigm also increases the pressure on Iran in this process, and we all know that the government's attitude toward Israel consists only of internal political rhetoric. It should not be thought that only internal political factors have an effect on the government's daring to commit these lawlessnesses.

The operation against Ekrem İmamoğlu cannot be explained only by internal political calculations. This step was made possible by the opportunities that emerged in foreign policy, the decrease in the West's interest and pressure on Turkey, and the regional balances and the expansion of Israel's security paradigm.