In whose hands does the country's fate lie?

The Institute for Social Studies has conducted a remarkable piece of research.

Despite the country experiencing its most severe economic, political, and even social crisis in history, the study has X-rayed the 30 percent of the electorate that keeps the AKP government in power and refuses to withdraw its support under any circumstances.

The results are extremely significant.

For instance, it has emerged that nearly two-thirds of the AKP's vote comes directly from the non-working segment of the population.

At the forefront are housewives.

“Tomorrow When asked 'Which party would you vote for if there were an election?', half of the housewives answered 'AKP'.

This accounts for 15 percent of the votes the ruling party received.

Hold on tight, retirees come in second place.

You know, the segment that has been forced to live below the hunger threshold in recent years due to the government's economic policies that make the rich richer and the poor poorer.

Despite this, one in every five retirees reportedly supports the AKP.

Four percent of the votes the ruling party received come from this group.

It really is like a joke...

Students are in third place.

Interestingly, one-quarter of students, the segment of society that should be most prone to change, reportedly favor the AKP in their political preferences.

When we add these rates together, the votes the AKP receives from just these three groups across Turkey reach 20 percent.

In other words, this is the segment that the government has carefully made dependent on itself for years.

Considering that support for the AKP is around 30 percent according to polls, it is possible to say that the remaining 10 percent consists of the rabid Islamist minority that enjoys the cream of the country thanks to the government.

Housewives following the government's lead perhaps more so from a political psychopolitical perspective, it is in dire need of explanation, but the result of this research that truly needs to be discussed is the rate that has emerged regarding the voting behavior of retirees!

Let us write with complete candor.

If retirees withdraw their support from the AKP, the government will experience a major collapse as it will reach the threshold of the critical 25 percent mark.

In other words, the key to changing the government is in the hands of the retirees!

It is difficult to say how aware they are of this or whether they truly have such a concern.

Domestic politics in Turkey has been trapped in a vicious cycle for years.

The government has turned retirees into a mass that selects three tomatoes, two cucumbers, and five tangerines by the piece at the market; that turns a box of medicine over and over at the pharmacy, thinking, 'I can skip buying this this month'; that silently watches the price hikes on products at the grocery store; that develops swollen tonsils from swallowing hard while looking at lamb chops and tenderloin in the butcher's display; and that has fallen into a state where they cannot even dream of a summer vacation with their children or eating out once a month.

Today, retirees have no money in their pockets.

They cannot give pocket money to their grandchildren.

The market bag is empty, the home heating is turned off, and the pot on the stove is boiling with only one meal in mind.

We would say that, theoretically, political loyalty can only be sustained within a system that meets people's basic needs, but for some reason, it is the same retirees who stamp their seal on the mentality that created this picture in every election!

The country's greatest sociopolitical dilemma is this:

Let's summarize it in one sentence: in the bazaars, markets, and grocery stores, their anger is high, but their loyalty to the ballot box is even higher.

Whoever understands, come forward.

In January, pensioners have now begun to slowly make their voices heard as the period for salary adjustments has arrived.

Petition campaigns are being organized on social media, in associations, and on various platforms under the heading 'A Human Life for Pensioners.' The demand that 'the lowest pension cannot fall below the hunger threshold' is finding serious support both among pensioners and in society at large.

Of course, these are not yet a threat to the current government; however, we do not know if they could be a sign of a fracture in the political preferences of pensioners.

Because the government has been applying the same tactic for years:

On one hand, they condemn retirees to poverty; on the other, they keep the door of "loyalty" locked.

Holiday bonuses, collective bargaining increases...

Bonuses before the election...

Price hikes after the election...

A salary eroded by inflation over the following six months...

This cycle has become so normalized that millions of retirees have settled for temporary relief rather than real improvement.

Will this picture change?

Will the segment that has acted with a sense of "fatalistic loyalty" for years—that is, the retirees, who have been the most victimized yet quietest group in society for years—reach the point of saying, for the first time, "If I have no rights, I have no loyalty"?

This is where the rubber meets the road.

At that point, let there be no doubt that Turkey's fate will change.

Naturally, the government does not want the pensioners' agenda to grow. If it grows, it knows very well that the collapse of its salary policy will become visible.

The CHP took an extremely important step by organizing a pensioners' rally in Tandoğan.

This rally provided moral support for the signature campaigns.

However, everything the CHP explains in the field consists of facts that pensioners already know. It is much more important for the CHP to offer pensioners a "model, not just figures." In other words, instead of manipulating the anger of pensioners, it needs to promise them a concrete future.

Let us conclude the article with a ten-point expert question: when the ballot box comes before them, will the pensioners this time Will they continue to reward the policies that condemn them to struggle and the mentality that deems this acceptable for them? Or will they, for the first time, show the courage to say, 'This order must change'?

Whatever the answer may be, let us conclude our article by stating that this is precisely what will determine Turkey's political balance.