Is this a ‘don’t want it, but put it in my pocket’ strategy!

Politics in Turkey has long been conducted not by the ballot box, but by the very shadow of the ballot box.

We know that shadow all too well.

The charts circulated on screens, the colorful pie slices, and the poll results presented as “breaking news”... And the so-called expert commentators who pontificate on these things...

Data that appears on a television program yesterday and on a website today is pushed onto the people of my country as if it were a photograph of social reality.

One of the latest examples is the poll shared by Fatih Altaylı, presented to the public as “if the election were held today.”

According to the numbers, the CHP is ahead under all circumstances, the government is behind; and opposition candidates Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş are both winning.

At first glance, it can be read as a picture that serves as a morale booster for CHP voters and an alarm bell for government voters.

What is truly striking in the research is that Özgür Özel, who has said “I will not be a candidate” many times until now, is also on the list!

He has come out ahead of Tayyip Erdoğan by a small margin!

This is not the first time; even though he emphasizes “I am not in this race” whenever the topic comes up, we see his name in polls frequently.

Why?

In the words of my country's people, could it be a ‘don’t want it, but put it in my pocket’ strategy!

Let us play devil's advocate!

If this is actually a perception construction being carried out to serve a deeper function, for example, to slowly insert Özgür Özel into the minds of my country's voters as the new Presidential candidate...

One day after Ekrem İmamoğlu was detained, that is, on March 20 last year, we said: “Tayyip Erdoğan is actually paving the way for Özgür Özel with this regional cleanup... Özgür Özel, in his own words, will ‘necessarily’ take responsibility as his two important strikers are taken out of the game, he will say ‘One cannot run away from responsibility,’ and he will try to make the nation accept it by saying ‘What could be more natural than the Chairman’s presidential candidacy?’...”

If these polls are a preliminary preparation to get Özgür Özel into the election race...

Because the issue is no longer who actually gets how many votes; it is what people are made to believe.

It is that clear.

We have seen this movie before.

Moreover, the ending was not good for any of us.

While it was obvious that the polls announced in 2023, claiming Kılıçdaroğlu would win with 60 percent, did not reflect the truth, voters were thrust into such a storm of perception that those who dared to say the election results might be a disappointment were accused by my country's opposition of working for the AKP or even being traitors.

When they asked for my prediction in a high school WhatsApp group, I said, “It doesn't look like Kılıçdaroğlu will win,” and I had friends who said all sorts of things to me and left the group.

Of course, I don't have a crystal ball; nor have I drunk from a fortune teller's cup. But as a journalist, I can take the pulse of the people of my country on the streets. From taxi drivers to barbers, from the uncles and aunts in the bazaar to the neighborhood tradesmen, they are all reliable sources for me.

I can say that I value them even more than the polls.

The current mood of the streets does not coincide with the results of the polls.

There is a disappointment regarding the CHP.

Especially their tagging along with the DEM party, jumping headfirst into the commission established in Parliament because Öcalan wanted it, supporting the betrayal process, and the scandals occurring in municipalities are pushing voters toward indecision. Those who truly take the pulse of the public can understand that even though the people of my country are fed up with the government, they will not blindly stamp the seal for the CHP.

Let us continue...

The theoretical purpose of a poll is clear; in its simplest explanation, it is to reveal the trend in society.

However, in Turkey, this function has long since lost its character. Polls no longer measure the pulse; let us say it openly, they are nicely determining the pulse. Instead of asking people what they think, they are whispering what they should think without them noticing.

Which of the dozens of polls that give different results every week should the voters of my country trust?

Actually, none of them!

Unfortunately, every poll contains a construct of its own, from its research method to its sample, from the way the question is asked to the presentation of the data. It is obvious that this construct is shaped more by political needs than by scientific rigor most of the time.

In fact, if you pay the money, the poll produces the result you want. There are so many research companies on the payroll in Turkey. There are even those who say, “Let us make some bread here too,” and establish a polling firm.

The whole point is to put data into someone's hands that will provide the perception that “we are ahead.”

We also know very well that the rhetoric of “we are the leading party in the polls,” which we frequently see on the opposition front, is aimed at exempting the party from criticism and the management staff from being questioned.

Let no one fool anyone.

The classic “let us not oppose the opposition” approach, a preemptive stance, a strategic defensive line; this has three main functions: to suppress internal opposition, to neutralize criticisms rising within the party or the voter base with the argument “but we are winning,” to make questioning seem almost like treason rather than a “right”; to consolidate leadership, to create an image of a “winning leader” through polls even if political success has not yet been tested at the ballot box; to perform psychological fortification.

Because the voters of my country want to think they are on the winning side. The “we are ahead” perception is the cheapest and most effective way to keep voters.

In the literature, this is called the “bandwagon effect,” that is, the tendency to jump on the winner's bandwagon!

It would not be an exaggeration to say that polls in Turkey use this effect consciously.

Because it is very clear that the goal is not to find the truth, but to manage expectations. Expectation management is also one of the most powerful tools of politics. We live in a country where people take political positions not only based on the current situation but also according to their expectations for the future.

If voters constantly hear that their side is winning, this increases their motivation. In the opposite case, disintegration begins.

Examples where election results seriously contradicted polls until just yesterday remain fresh in memories. Despite this, the fact that the same mechanism is reactivated before every election is a situation that seriously needs explanation from a psychosocial perspective.

One reason why polls are so effective is the role of the media.

Data is often presented without being questioned, without discussing the methodology, and by being taken out of context.

Imagine a screen; there is a sentence on the lower ticker: “BREAKING NEWS: CHP IS THE LEADING PARTY.” But which company is behind that breaking news, how many people were interviewed, on what date it was conducted, what questions were asked, how the sample was selected...

We do not know; it is not important at all, and these are not talked about most of the time anyway. No one bothers to think about it either.

So-called “research” has turned into a propaganda tool today.

Keeping all this background in mind, let us return to the beginning of the article and ask; will Özgür Özel come out of the paddock in the near future and announce his Presidential candidacy?

It is possible!

It is no secret that Tayyip Erdoğan wants Özgür Özel as an opponent. Because he is exactly to his liking. He knows that if he snaps his fingers, he will come running and stand at attention before him. Don't mind him thundering even if it doesn't rain now; he is on the verge of tearing the CHP to pieces, but he has always been very fond of softening, normalizing, warming up, and kissing and making up with the government!

If Tayyip Erdoğan loosens the noose around the CHP's neck today or tomorrow, let us understand that he is strengthening Özgür Özel's hand and preparing the ground for him to announce his candidacy.

In short, let us put a period to our article by saying that politics may be pregnant with surprising developments in the coming days.