It is not just the AKP, earthquakes are also hitting the middle class

Let us continue to focus on the issue of earthquakes, both to remember and to ensure it is not forgotten.

In our previous article, we wrote that from the Ottoman Empire to the present day, whoever has been at the head of the state has tended to focus on healing wounds and trying to soothe the pain of disaster victims after natural disasters like earthquakes and floods occur, rather than anticipating their likely consequences and taking precautions.

Yet, what should have been done was to take the necessary steps in advance from a rational perspective and to prevent or minimize the potential damage that natural disasters would cause.

Things have not really worked that way until today.

Let us open a brief parenthesis here and emphasize that the political Islamist mentality that has governed the country since 2002 is the only administration that has linked the helping hand extended by the state following natural disasters in the history of the Republic of Turkey to the votes cast by the electorate.

We had read the report by Geological Engineer Dr. Hakan Çavaş and chronologically listed the laws enacted and regulations made since the proclamation of the Edict of Tanzimat.

Now, let us share some remarkable assessments from the report titled Economic Impacts of the 1999-2023 Earthquakes.

First, let us underline the finding that there is a significant difference between the socioeconomic impacts of the 7.4 magnitude earthquake on August 17, 1999, and the earthquake that struck southeastern Turkey last year.

The report states, "While property losses were increasing in the 1990s as natural disasters in at least partially urbanized areas were more frequent and intense, it is thought that the 2023 earthquake had a lower loss cost for industrial structures compared to the Marmara earthquake, as rural areas were more affected."

In other words, although the area affected by last year's earthquake was larger, it would not be wrong to say that the 1999 earthquake struck the Turkish economy right in its heart.

As for the finding in the title of the article…

The report says the following:

“In both developed and developing countries, some social groups, and especially the poor, are at the highest risk; their exposure is generally a function of the location and quality of their housing. However, most of the people affected by the earthquakes in Turkey are not the poor, but the middle class.”

The meaning of these sentences is as follows:

While the poorest segments of society around the world are affected by earthquakes because they live in the lowest-quality housing, in Turkey, earthquakes kill people in the middle class, most of whom would be considered well-off.

In other words, the middle class in Turkey is being hit not only by the AKP's economy, which is fed by rent-seeking and corruption, but also by earthquakes linked to these factors.

This finding in the report is explained very well along with economic data.

It is pointed out that the share of the provinces affected by the 2023 earthquake in the total national income is 9.3 percent.

That is, almost one-tenth of Turkey as a whole…

Furthermore, the share of the agriculture, industry, and manufacturing sectors in the provinces affected by the earthquake is above their share in the general gross domestic product.

This means serious production capacity in every field…

The agricultural sector of the 10 provinces also has a significant share in this.

The share of the finance and insurance sector appears to be only 4.4 percent.

In other words, production is at the forefront in this region rather than banking, trade, or buying and selling.

The ratio of total businesses in the disaster region to the country as a whole is 11.7 percent, and the ratio of active income tax payers is 11.1 percent.

9.2 percent of active corporate tax payers and 10.5 percent of active VAT payers are also located in the provinces affected by the earthquake.

Let us continue reading the details of the economic data.

The provinces exposed to the 2023 earthquake produce 20.9 percent of the country's crops and 12 percent of its grain and other crops.

Again, in these provinces, total cultivated agricultural land corresponds to 14.5 percent of the country's total, 12 percent of cattle, and 16.3 percent of small livestock.

The 10 provinces in question have a 9 percent share in total loans and a 5.2 percent share in deposits.

While analyzing this data, let us not skip the ratio of non-performing loans.

This ratio is 17.6 percent. Other loans are distributed as 40 percent for the textile and textile products sector, 18.3 percent for the metal and processed mining sector, and 15.5 percent for the agriculture and fishing sector.

Total consumer loans are 10.4 percent.

The provinces in the earthquake zone account for 8.7 percent of Turkey's total exports.

This is not a figure to be underestimated.

Let us point out that more than half of the exports, which were 19.76 billion dollars in 2022, were realized from Gaziantep with 10.52 billion dollars.

Similarly, during this period, Hatay exported 3.56 billion dollars, Adana 3 billion dollars, and Kahramanmaraş 1.46 billion dollars.

Cereals, pulses, oilseeds and their products, steel, agricultural products, textiles and raw materials, and ready-to-wear clothing products were exported to the world.

The 1999 earthquake occurred in a region where per capita income was high and population growth was managed through the construction of multi-story housing that replaced traditional buildings. The ratio of houses destroyed in the Marmara earthquake was seen as extraordinary compared to other earthquakes in OECD member countries.

However, the 2023 earthquake, which emerged with seismic activities at short intervals, was geologically more deadly and destructive than the 1999 earthquake.

The earthquake struck an economy of the magnitude I tried to explain with numerical data above. When looking with a magnifying glass, it is seen that not only these provinces but the Turkish economy as a whole has been shaken.

My statistics professor at the university used to say, thinking with data enlightens you and always leads you to the right conclusion.

Aside from looking at issues emotionally, it is necessary to approach disasters like earthquakes, floods, or the landslide at the mine in Erzincan from the framework of science and reason, prioritizing the public interest, and to analyze the consequences of these disasters in the same way.

Unfortunately, Turkey is moving further away from this day by day.

Since the government sees Turkey as a huge rent-seeking opportunity in almost every respect, it does not care about the public interest.

The result is obvious.

Let us refresh our hope by saying that days when reason will prevail are not far off, without losing heart, and let us put a period to our article.