Nasrallah and what comes next...

After Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023, it was more or less clear that the issue would reach this point.

At the time, we asked, “Will the gates of hell open?”

Over the past year, we have witnessed that even if they haven't been thrown wide open, they have been left ajar enough to make their heat felt all too well.

The chessboard of the Middle East has turned into a bloodbath.

Following Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh, Israel has now eliminated Hezbollah's legendary leader Hassan Nasrallah in an assassination.

It killed not only Nasrallah but almost the entire brain trust and administrative staff of the organization.

Yet, until very recently, the fake leftists who were so fond of romanticizing the issue and the Islamist crowd who mistook what was in their minds—fed by medieval fairy tales—for reality were busy selling dreams to our people, saying things like, “If Netanyahu moves the war to Lebanon, Hezbollah will slap them so hard...”

Those who paid attention to the “keyboard warriors” pontificating on state-sponsored news channels in an effort to curry favor with the presidential palace, and the simpletons who glorified Islamist organizations while foaming at the mouth, were expecting Hezbollah to enter Israel, for Iran to level Tel Aviv, Ashdod, and Ashkelon with the missiles in its possession, and for Hamas militants to emerge from the tunnels where they were hiding in the ruins of Gaza and grab Netanyahu by the throat.

There were even those who believed that the missiles fired by Yemen would change the balance of power and that Israel would be defeated.

In short, according to them, Israel's military power would melt away in front of the resistance front, it would suffer a major defeat against Hezbollah just as it did in 2006, and the Zionists would be thrown into the dustbin of history.

But that is not what happened.

It is clear that Israel learned a good lesson from the debacle it experienced during the Summer Rains operation and learned that it needed to take its opponent more seriously.

It was clear that it was making medium- and long-term plans.

In the end, it first blew up the pagers and cell phones of the staff forming the backbone of the organization, and then struck the heaviest blow in Hezbollah's history with a precision strike.

Whether the organization can easily recover from this, when it might regain its former strength, or if it even can, remains unknown for now.

But it does not look easy.

Let's come to Nasrallah...

He was an extremely important figure for Lebanon. Since 1992, he had effectively turned Hezbollah into a state within a state. Its militants were Lebanon's unofficial army, and they had taken on the defense of not just the Shiites, but everyone in the country. Despite being represented by 13 deputies in Parliament, he had become the determinant of domestic politics. In addition to the Shiites, he also had the support of Sunnis, Christians, and Druze.

It would not be wrong to say that with his death, a new but uncertainty-filled era has emerged for Lebanon.

But it is worth emphasizing with a thick pen: when dealing with the Middle East, one must be free from sentimentality, ideological attachment, and bigotry, and most importantly, one must not lose touch with concrete reality.

Neither does Israel perish by saying “Damn Israel,” nor does the Shiite Crescent in the Middle East grow stronger by saying “Long live the resistance front.”

The issue is not about being right or wrong, conscientious or unscrupulous, merciful or ruthless!

Those who invest in science, technology, education, production, and their people win in one way or another. Religion, faith, and scripture only go so far. Even if they are morally right to the end, those who base their politics and strategy on 7th-century Arab fairy tales ultimately end up disappointed.

Unfortunately, this is the cold, hard truth.

The fact that Netanyahu, an undeniable racist, is ruthlessly committing war crimes does not change this reality. One needs to look at the issue with the eye of reason, without resorting to simplifications like “Well, he has America behind him.”

So, what comes next...

The developments of the last three months point to a significant fracture in this geography.

Whether dramatic changes will be triggered in the Middle East is hard to say at this stage, but it is clear that the constant high tension in the region will make the political, military, and strategic fault lines even more fragile.

The Shiite Crescent, stretching from Iraq and Syria to Lebanon, seems to be gradually ceasing to be a military and strategic pressure element on Israel. The Tehran administration's recent tendency to keep a lower profile, its refrain from retaliating under various pretexts, the signs of softening in its rhetoric, and the new President's eagerness to conduct back-channel diplomacy with those in Washington are not very good signs.

Netanyahu, feeling the unconditional support of the US behind him, is acting like a king in an empty castle.

He is openly spreading terror.

For instance, if Hezbollah is removed from the equation, a significant gap will open in Lebanon's defense.

While Israel has achieved what it considers a significant tactical success by killing Nasrallah, will it risk sending troops into southern Lebanon and suffering casualties one way or another; or, while everyone expects this, will it launch a comprehensive operation against Syria directly through the Golan Heights; or will its ultimate target be Iran with the US getting involved? We will learn the answers to these questions by living through them in the near future.

The Greater Middle East Project (BOP), which hit a wall during the Arab Spring, is now operating in a different way.

But before concluding the article, let's ask the ten-point expert question. While the Middle East is burning, what measures are those in power in our country taking to keep us out of this fire, or let's ask openly, are they taking any measures at all? Or are they intending to put the gear in neutral, saying “the ship has sunk anyway, as long as I keep my seat”?

As always, leaving the answer to the discernment of our readers, let us put a period to our article.