Özgür Özel and Garfield

Do not let the title immediately bring to mind that famous cartoon character created in 1978 by the American animator, producer, writer, and screenwriter James Robert Davis; the cute, yet equally sluggish, lazy, gluttonous, indifferent, and at the same time arrogant and sarcastic tabby cat, Garfield.

We are not going to do what Bahçeli does, either!

You know, before the 2018 Presidential election, when the CHP's feisty Group Deputy Chairman Özgür Özel criticized him, Bahçeli called him "Tipitip," and Özel replied by calling Bahçeli "Gargamel"; of course, we are not about to start comparing anyone to Garfield now.

Naturally, we will not fall into the shallowness of political criticism by walking the path of "ad hominem" attacks, talking about glasses, noses, Botox, and the like.

Let's not beat around the bush. The subject of our article is not a cat, but America's 20th President, James Garfield!

In other words, there is only a similarity in names.

Let us put on our reading glasses and look at this extraordinary story from the dusty shelves of American politics.

Perhaps it can tell us something about today.

The year is 1880.

It had been 15 years since the end of the Civil War. America was striving to recover politically, economically, and, more importantly, socially. Slavery had been abolished on paper, but healing wounds that had been gangrenous for centuries was not easy at all. This task fell to the victors of the civil war. But things were not falling into place as quickly as one might hope.

Grant, who brought the legendary Confederate General Lee to his knees, had served two terms as President and then left his seat to Hayes. After Hayes's term ended, a fierce competition began among the Republicans.

Grant wanted to be President again. But his record during his presidency was not very bright. For this reason, a delicate balance had emerged among the delegates.

The post-war period was very painful, and rumors of corruption were rampant. The system was rotting from within. Not just Republicans, but the vast majority of Americans were in favor of change.

The convention to determine the Republican Party's presidential candidate met between June 2 and 8.

The Republicans were divided into three parts. On one side was Grant, who had emerged victorious from the civil war and was still seen as a "hero"; on the other side were Blaine and Sherman, who wanted to shake off the fatigue of the post-war period, end corruption, restore justice, and, in short, make a fresh start.

The third candidate was the brother of the war hero General Sherman, and he was serving as Secretary of the Treasury. He was an ambitious personality.

Of course, there was another name in the hall who had no expectations.

James Garfield!

He was the head of the Ohio delegation. Although he was a member of the House of Representatives, he spent most of his time on his modest farm in Mentor.

Before the convention, Sherman had written a letter to Garfield and asked for his support. He thought the speech he would give would be influential among the delegates.

He was not wrong.

After reading the letter, Garfield packed his suitcase and went to Chicago.

When he entered the Interstate Exposition Building, he certainly did not know that he would emerge from there as the Republican presidential candidate.

The convention started off lively.

The applause following the speeches showed the delegates' preference for Grant, but the knot could not be untied.

No candidate could get 379 votes, which was one more than half of the total number of delegates.

At the most critical moment of the convention, Garfield took the podium.

He gave a speech that showed great respect for Grant, praised Grant's services to soften the Grant-Blaine feud that was dividing the party, but did not belittle Blaine, and at the same time had a unifying quality.

Besides that, his eloquence, which emphasized freedom, democracy, and hopes for the future, was so powerful that it practically shook the hall. The Stalwarts, that is, those who supported Grant, were very impressed by Garfield's oratory.

At the end of his words, he said, "My candidate is Sherman," and asked the delegates to cast their votes for Sherman.

The arrow had left the bow.

The delegates cared not about who he supported, but what he said on the podium, and more importantly, how he said it. An explosion of enthusiasm occurred in the hall.

In fact, before coming to the convention, his task was to play "second fiddle" and tidy things up. But after a point, the delegates could not carry Grant, Blaine, or Sherman. As the two ends of the party blocked each other, everyone's attention suddenly focused on Garfield, who stood out with his eloquence.

Although he was not a candidate, he first received one vote, and in the following rounds, this number increased exponentially.

Garfield was extremely uncomfortable with the votes cast for him.

He went straight to Sherman, intending to say that he had no such preference, but he was met with the words, "The great man from Ohio, James Garfield. I have never been so humiliated in my life."

Even though he tried to say things like, "I will not accept any of the votes. I will transfer them all to you," he was cut off with, "That's not how things work, Jim." His words, "I expressed my loyalty, Mr. Secretary, I cannot step back," also found no response. Sherman then delivered the final blow:

"Loyalty? If the presidency didn't lie in his heart, no one would give such a speech."

With factions eating each other for 34 rounds without being able to produce a candidate, while blood didn't exactly flow, the delegates reached a point where they were almost ready to gouge each other's eyes out. But at the end of the day, Garfield became the Republican presidential candidate with 399 votes.

He won the election held on November 2, 1880, and took the presidential seat on March 4, 1881. But unfortunately, he would only be able to hold this office for three months.

Let's come to today.

When we look at the debates taking place in Turkey, we see that, interestingly, the arithmetic of a similar process is being discussed.

So, can we find a parallel between the possible answers to the question "Will Özgür Özel be a presidential candidate?" which is voiced from time to time in the CHP, and Garfield's story?

Until yesterday, Özgür Özel had announced many times that he would not be a candidate. He brought İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş to the forefront by saying, "I have two strikers," and said that he was the "technical director," and so on.

However, last week he came out and said:

"I am making a call to Erdoğan that will be a turning point for Turkish politics. If you apologize to this nation, I am ready to fight you politically at the ballot box from now on. If you say in the spring, I am ready for the ballot box in the spring; if you say in the snow and winter 2 months later, I am ready for the ballot box in the snow and winter; I am ready to compete with you if you are a candidate, and to retire you if you cannot be."

While it has become clear that İmamoğlu can no longer easily get out of Silivri, and while his path is effectively blocked due to the diploma issue, even if he does not have a political ban for now, could this statement by Özgür Özel be a signal flare for his own candidacy?

It is possible. If so, there will be objections both from the voters and within the party. But the mathematics of politics does not work that way.

Let us translate what Garfield experienced in the Congress hall in 1880 into Turkish politics.

"Even if Özel seems to be running away from this, what happens if everyone in the hall starts pointing at him?"

Garfield also wanted to run away. But as Sherman said, if the presidency didn't lie in his heart, he couldn't have made that historic speech at the Congress.

The same applies to Özgür Özel.

Today he is trying to say "I am not a candidate," but let's look at the speeches he makes at rally squares and his party's group meetings. If the fire of the presidency, which he cannot say, cannot confess, and cannot reveal, were not burning in a corner of his heart, could he have engaged in politics with such superhuman effort since he became Chairman, and could he have appeared with such powerful eloquence almost every day?

It is no secret that Tayyip Erdoğan also wants to see Özgür Özel as a rival. We also know that he often carries water to the government's mill, but in politics, two times two does not always equal four.

In short, let us end our article by saying: let us not be surprised if we see Özgür Özel as the CHP's presidential candidate when the 'matrix' of politics begins to unravel in the near future.