The calculation stretching from Kashmir to Hormuz

Almost three weeks of the war in the Middle East have passed.

Everyone can now see this: America failed to calculate that Iran would be a "tough nut to crack."

Perhaps they did calculate it, but...

They most likely did not foresee that it would be this severe.

The cost of the war is increasing every day.

It is not just the regional economy that is taking a hit; the global economy is also suffering, and the system, already shaken by oil prices, has begun to sound the alarm.

We can say that regional balances are on the verge of being irrevocably overturned.

There is one very clear reality: this will not end just by exchanging missiles.

Sooner or later, there will be a ceasefire, or everyone will run out of breath...

The first option does not seem to be on the table for Israel; Netanyahu has made up his mind. If things continue this way, it is very difficult to predict where and how it will end.

But the second possibility is related to the weapon capacity they possess, the quality of those weapons, and the endurance of the public.

At the end of the day, will Israel be unable to cope with Iran and resort to using nuclear weapons?

Before saying, "No, they wouldn't go that far," one should pause and think. They seem to have long since stopped making rational decisions.

The most uncertain part of the matter is this:

What will Trump do?

We are talking about someone whose yesterday does not match his today, and whose today does not hold up to his tomorrow.

Moreover, there are midterm elections in November. Everything is not exactly rosy for him, but he continues to come out and say absurd things every day.

Therefore, there is no clear answer to this question.

So, will a ground operation come?

Let us say it upfront: it is possible on paper.

But on the ground...

It is not that easy.

The reality of ground warfare is different. It is worth being realistic. If America decides on a ground operation against Iran, it will not do it alone with its own soldiers. It cannot do so anyway. Especially when Trump's job approval rating has plummeted.

He needs local ground elements to deploy to the field.

Until yesterday, there were two options: the Kurds and the Baloch.

But the calculation did not hold up.

The Kurds initially seemed willing.

But then they shifted into reverse.

In fact, the wife of Iraq's Kurdish President came out and openly said, "We will not fight for you." Let us not see this as a simple reaction; Iraqi Kurds are not very enthusiastic about this either.

This was a serious fracture from Washington's perspective.

Only one option remained: the Baloch...

But it seems their enthusiasm has also been dampened.

Now, let us put on our reading glasses.

Just before America and Israel attacked Iran, an interesting development occurred:

Pakistan struck Afghanistan with "flimsy excuses." It was dismissed by many as an unnecessary local conflict, so not much attention was paid to it.

At first glance, it might seem unrelated.

But it is not.

This move was actually of vital importance for Iran.

By keeping Afghanistan militarily occupied, Pakistan prevented Afghan armed elements from creating pressure on the Iranian border.

In other words, it made a strategic move.

If America had not been late, it could have put Iran in a difficult position with the tension it would create along the Afghan border line.

But Pakistan acted first, drawing Afghanistan into a conflict and tying the hands and feet of its armed forces.

Thus, the Tehran administration did not have to mass troops on the Afghan border, did not have to divide its forces, and was able to concentrate on the main front. No security vulnerability emerged in the Baluchistan region that would threaten the country's territorial integrity.

In short, Iran entered the war without being spread thin.

This is a detail critical enough to change the fate of the war. Let us underline this with a thick pen.

Why did Pakistan do this? Why did it offer such a strategic contribution to Iran out of the blue?

The answer is clear: China...

Once upon a time, Pakistan was one of America's most loyal allies in the region; with Afghanistan operations, intelligence sharing, economic and military aid, there was an almost intertwined relationship between the two countries.

But later, America's strategy of prioritizing India against China caused its relationship with its old ally to deteriorate.

The result: India moved closer to the US, and Pakistan moved closer to China...

This was not just a diplomatic rapprochement. It soon turned into a military, technological, and strategic partnership.

Indeed, we saw the results of this cooperation in the conflict between India and Pakistan last year.

Pakistan's weapon systems, developed with Chinese technology, posed a serious threat to India's most modern aircraft.

In fact, when Pakistan hunted down India's Dassault Rafale and Mirage 2000 aircraft like shooting sitting ducks, Modi was forced to ask for a ceasefire.

Thus, we saw that the China-Pakistan military integration was not just a partnership on paper.

As for Beijing's Iran calculation...

This is exactly where the big picture emerges.

The Beijing administration wanted a return for the support it gave Pakistan against India.

Where?

In the Iranian theater.

Because for China, Iran is not just an ally; it is also an energy supplier, a geopolitical buffer, and a critical link in the Belt and Road project.

Therefore, the Beijing administration does not and cannot allow Iran to weaken or its oil resources to fall under American control. Because China meets a very significant 13 percent of its oil needs from Iran.

Pakistan's Afghanistan move was part of this strategy.

Let us come to the most critical part of the issue, the crux of the matter...

The Baloch!

They live in both Pakistan and Iran. That is, they are on both sides of the border. Moreover, they have armed militias.

If they start an uprising with America's support, it is highly likely that they could carve out territory from both Iran and Pakistan.

More importantly, the region where the Baloch live is at a strategic point due to its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz. We do not need to emphasize separately that one of the biggest trump cards in Iran's hand today is the Strait of Hormuz. If the Baloch were to take control of the region in question, it would be a dream come true for America.

This is also a region of critical importance for Pakistan.

Because Baluchistan is Pakistan's gateway to the Indian Ocean, and furthermore, the Gwadar Port, where China has made huge investments, is located here.

If Baluchistan becomes independent, Iran would lose its control over Hormuz, Pakistan's access to the sea would be closed, and China's hundreds of billions of dollars in investments would be at risk.

This is a nightmare scenario for all three countries!

In short, the political, military, and strategic equation has completely changed.

That is why Pakistan's Afghanistan move was not a coincidence.

With this move, no breach was opened in Iran's defense line, plans that could have been built through the Baloch were thwarted, and the possibility of an American ground operation weakened.

But it has not disappeared.

Let us conclude our article by asking whether Trump will be able to pull any other rabbits out of his hat in the coming days.