The multiplier effect of Trump's China obsession and Modi's ambition for power...

Last week, I focused on the possibility that the Pakistan-India tension could trigger an all-out war, and we had set today's date for the background of the issue.

The visible pretext for the crisis was a terrorist attack that took place in the Baisaran Valley in the Pahalgam region of the Himalayas, a tourism hub.

A group called the “Kashmir Resistance,” which is not very well known, claimed responsibility. According to India, this organization was linked to the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizbul Mujahideen.

However, Pakistan had denied the accusations from the very first day.

According to them, this was a “false flag” operation.

“False flag” is defined as “covert operations designed by intelligence agencies to deceive the public by making it appear as if certain events they carried out themselves to provoke or manipulate the people were actually conducted by the targeted individuals.”

In other words, someone had planned and implemented a terrorist attack to drag the two countries into war.

It is hard to say for now how much this reflects the truth, but what was striking here was India's approach.

After the terrorist attack, it quickly brought the Indus issue to the agenda and escalated the crisis. It threatened, “We will cut off your water,” hitting a raw nerve for those in Islamabad.

They certainly knew that this was a “casus belli” for Pakistan.

This is exactly where the crux of the matter lies.

The statements were not made in a moment of anger.

Indian Prime Minister Modi needed a crisis that would unite his people behind him to protect his power.

Because in the elections held last year, the Bharatiya Janata Party, which he leads, failed to secure a majority on its own for the first time in 10 years, and the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, formed under the leadership of the Indian National Congress, received far more votes than the polls had predicted.

In other words, his seat was shaking!

Naturally, this caused alarm bells to ring.

In short, a victory to be achieved against Pakistan could have allowed Modi to regain his former strength.

Don't say, “Oh come on, it wouldn't go that far...”!

It is not a conspiracy theory or anything; no matter how you look at it, Modi is cut from the same cloth as the world's right-wing populist politicians like Trump, Putin, Netanyahu, Erdoğan, Orbán, Vučić, and Meloni.

What these politicians do to stay in power and what they are willing to risk is written on the pages of recent history that have not yet gathered dust.

That is to say, Modi is also one of those politicians who, when cornered domestically, might look for a crisis abroad at the cost of his people losing their lives...

That is one aspect of the issue!

The other aspect is Trump's China obsession...

It is well known that he wants to crush China, which has become a global supplier over the last quarter-century, by raising customs duties.

But at the same time, he is also calculating to cut off the trade routes extending from China to the West!

He plans to make India the production hub of the West by substituting it for China.

In fact, Trump revealed his true intention by supporting India before it was fully understood what was going on.

One end of the issue is in the Middle East.

With Hamas pulling the pin on the bomb, Israel has razed Gaza to the ground in the last 19 months and removed Iran and Syria as threats.

The background to this was the calculation of “ensuring the security” of a new trade route that would extend from India through the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf to Saudi Arabia, and from there to Israel's port of Ashkelon.

Just as Hamas became a target because it threatened the outlet of energy and trade routes to the Mediterranean, Pakistan is now more or less being put on the target board because it is a strategic pressure element in the Arabian Sea section of the trade route extending from India to the West.

In other words, the Americans are concerned with doing their own brand of political engineering so that ships departing from India can traverse this route without encountering any problems.

As for the aspect of the issue that concerns China...

Today, the most important sea route from China to the West passes through the Strait of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia.

Likewise, ships carrying Middle Eastern oil to China also use the Strait of Malacca.

This is a matter of critical importance for Beijing because if the Strait of Malacca is closed, ships departing from China and the Middle East will have to pass south of Indonesia, which means shipping costs will skyrocket.

The Pakistan route is extremely important for China.

For this very reason, those in Beijing are investing in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea coast, which is the most strategic point of this corridor, and the route extending from here to the West. Even if the Strait of Malacca closes, they will be able to conduct trade through Pakistan.

The operational management of the port is already with the China Overseas Port Holding Company. This is a very important connection point between the Belt and Road Initiative and the Maritime Silk Road projects.

If Pakistan and India clash, all the economic, commercial, and political investments China has made in Gwadar will go to waste.

Let's wrap up the issue; the crisis between the two countries is not just about a terrorist attack, nor is it just about India's threat to cut off the waters in the Indus basin.

These are the excuses presented to the world public.

The real issue is the arm-wrestling between America and China on the Subcontinent and Indian Prime Minister Modi's concern to protect his power by seizing the opportunity.

On the other hand, when we look at the alliance relations of the two countries, there is a tangled picture. For example, they have been inseparable lately, but Azerbaijan is behind Pakistan, while Israel is behind India. As for Turkey, it is a situation of “damned if you do, damned if you don't.”

Let's say Trump picks up the phone and says, “You will cut your support for Pakistan, you will stand behind India, or else there is no appointment for you.”

Let's ask what ours would do, and leave the answer to the discernment of our readers as we put a period to our article.