'The outsider'

If I may use a figure of speech, domestic politics is currently a bloodbath. There is plenty of "material" to write about, but let's look outward for a moment today.

Trump has taken a hand in the Ukraine issue, and he has taken it with a firm grip.

First, he met with Putin, then he lined up the European leaders like a row of glasses, and gave them a proper dressing-down.

Let's set aside the tabloid fodder—Meloni rolling her eyes while Macron spoke, her gazing dreamily at Trump as he took the floor, Zelensky wearing a black jacket, Merz wiping his runny nose with his hand—but this meeting, held in Washington with a highly unusual format, seems destined to be a turning point in 21st-century history!

From another perspective, it looks like the Yalta Conference of February 1945, where Churchill, Roosevelt, and Stalin came together.

At that time, their stated intention was to establish a peaceful order after the war, but by the time the anniversary of the conference arrived, the world had already found itself in the midst of the Cold War.

Unfortunately, this initiative does not promise a long-lasting or permanent peace either.

For now, the guns will fall silent and fingers will be taken off triggers, but it is certain that the diplomacy Trump is conducting without his nearsighted glasses will leave the world facing new and much more difficult problems after a while.

For instance, if China, following Russia's example, decides to invade Taiwan, thinking "the perpetrator gets away with it anyway," what will happen then? How will we legitimize a world order where the strong get what they want and the aggressor is never held accountable?

Let's not beat around the bush.

Putin was the one who declared victory at the end of the negotiations held behind closed doors.

He has essentially taken almost everything that was on the table.

Most importantly, he has put Crimea in his pocket. By the end of the process, he will have largely incorporated the territories he wanted into his country, NATO membership will be a pipe dream for Zelensky, and once the size, capacity, and capabilities of the Ukrainian army are limited, he will surely be saying, "It doesn't get any better than this."

Of course, the suspension of sanctions against Russia is just the bonus...

With the situation as it is, Zelensky and the haughty leaders of Europe have been left empty-handed.

They were comfortable for years because they had outsourced security issues to the US and NATO.

But now, the pot has boiled over.

They think they will save the situation with security guarantees to be provided to Ukraine.

After the meeting, they announced, "Now is the time to create a strong security mechanism, similar to NATO's Article 5, that will also include the US." They pointed to the importance of the active participation of a "Coalition of the Willing" in the process, and so on...

Perhaps having finally come to their senses, they remembered that the Ukrainian army is Europe's "first line of defense," and they took a political stance of their own by saying, "Ukraine's security is Europe's security."

And well, the market in Bor has long since closed...

Putin must have laughed a lot when he read that statement.

Now, let's get to the crux of the matter.

What will the security guarantees to be given to Ukraine cover in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement with Russia?

After leaving the White House, Macron didn't waste any time; he stated that soldiers from Turkey, as well as France, the UK, and Germany, could go to that country's territory. When asked if these forces would be obligated to resist in the event of a possible Russian attack, he replied that "this is the purpose of the security guarantees."

Upon reading this sentence, let's not immediately say, "Hold your horses, champion."

Tayyip Erdoğan was not invited to the White House, and as far as it is understood, no one bothered to ask for his opinion on the decisions made; they openly treated Turkey like an "outsider," but we know that the government is already eager for the matter.

Macron counted on this and included Turkey among the countries that might send troops.

Let's refresh our memories.

Last March, the Ministry of National Defense issued a statement saying, "The issue of contributing to a mission that has been mentioned in various channels but has not yet been placed within a conceptual framework will be evaluated mutually with all relevant parties if it is deemed necessary for regional stability and the establishment of peace."

In other words, it left the door open to the option of sending troops to Ukraine.

Tayyip Erdoğan also said at the "like-minded countries" summit organized online by the EU, "We are of the opinion that it would be in our mutual interest for all steps regarding European security to be planned together with Turkey."

We do not yet know the technical dimensions of the issue.

No matter how you look at it, if the Turkish Armed Forces go to Ukraine, they will be in the line of fire.

It is by no means an easy task.

If Turkish soldiers are attacked, no one should expect NATO to intervene. Rest assured, Trump wouldn't lift a finger to avoid upsetting his relationship with Putin. It would be our soldiers who pay the price.

Let's say Tayyip Erdoğan was very angry and offended because he wasn't invited to the White House, and he snapped at Europe, saying, "I'm not giving you any soldiers or anything..."

Please don't laugh... Think of this as a fictional "contingency plan"!

It's impossible, of course, but let's engage in a little mental exercise anyway.

Would Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hesitate!

Even if he did, let's conclude our article by saying that all it would take to convince him is a "behave yourself" phone call from the White House.