'The PKK is gone, let's pivot to religious-secular polarization'

The rabbits pulled out of the hat to keep the government in power have never run out, and it doesn't look like they will anytime soon.

No one should get their hopes up in vain.

Until yesterday, the government was tearing the CHP apart, saying, "They are collaborating with a terrorist organization"; that was until the mathematics of politics—you could call it parliamentary arithmetic—showed that the Palace needed the DEM Party to keep its seat.

Yet, the strongest tool for polarization in its arsenal was the strategy of portraying the opposition as "linked to terrorism."

It operated through the PKK, allowing it to easily consolidate the nationalist-conservative base. Especially when the ethnicist, sectarian faction in the CHP was singing the praises of the terrorist organization at every opportunity, it was like a dream come true for them.

Once they placed the CHP side-by-side with the PKK, they didn't have to think much about the rest; this policy had always yielded results until now.

They kept the Kurdish issue and the PKK topic constantly on the agenda. However, they have recently lowered the dose of this rhetoric.

It is as if that card has been tucked under the table for now.

Let's be more explicit; when the "process" they pushed as a "Terror-Free Turkey"—where they were in bed with the Kurdish nationalists—began, they changed their strategy, or rather, were forced to change it.

Since it made no sense to both work with Kurdish nationalists and accuse the CHP of collaborating with the PKK, they made a U-turn.

From then on, there was no point in beating the CHP over the head with the PKK; that is why they started digging through old files.

Let's put on our reading glasses.

The intention is to settle this matter once and for all before the inevitable end; remaining "President" depends on constitutional change, and constitutional change depends on fulfilling the demands of the DEM Party.

They are paving the way for an Islamist-Kurdish federation step by step.

Everyone already knows this.

We have talked until we are blue in the face, but the truly critical issue here is that the formulation, which they have calculated down to every single line, is not strong enough to guarantee the continuation of their rule.

At least for now!

Things are easier in Parliament, but what if they are forced into an early election...

That is where the trouble begins.

Because the balance is on a knife's edge.

Even if the earth were to split, the world to collapse, or the sky to fall, they are constantly brainstorming on how to add to the 30 percent base they believe will never shrink, but even if they add the DEM Party, MHP, BBP, and HÜDA PAR supporters, it is still too close to call.

Moreover, the rate of undecided voters and those demanding an "early election" is at a frightening level for them. With this rate, the risk increases. They know they have to trap them one way or another.

In short, the current political and social landscape does not bode well for their future plans.

Let's not say the country has fallen apart, but it is on the verge.

Without beating around the bush; they have distorted socio-economic balances so much to transfer capital to their cronies, the nouveau riche, and the rabid minority that benefits from the blessings of power to the fullest, that the people of this country have reached their breaking point.

The nation is gasping for air. The vast majority of retirees are being tested with hunger, the situation of minimum wage earners is dire; production has come to a standstill, agriculture is finished, and small tradesmen are bleeding.

The classic "a hefty raise right before the election will turn the tide in our favor" doesn't seem like it will work this time. I am not saying this; Şamil Tayyar, one of the government's own pens, wrote it recently. Even though the people of this country may have a short memory, they haven't yet forgotten that what was given with a spoon before the previous election was taken back with a shovel after the election.

As the economic crisis hurts, the government loses ground. The cost of living, youth unemployment, the housing issue...

Because they cannot write a compelling story on these topics, they need emotional mobilization.

Identity politics is the shortest way to drown out rational debates.

We have all learned this since 2002.

With the agitation of sycophantic television channels, some retirees, minimum wage earners, and housewives will likely turn the rudder again, but whether it will be enough is unknown.

Tayyip Erdoğan is at a highly critical turning point.

He needs to plan his contingencies very well for what comes next and proceed in a way that does not risk the election results.

With the situation as it is, we were all waiting to see what rabbit he would pull out of the hat this time, when we saw that the same old trick that has kept political Islamists in power since 2002 has been put back into circulation.

Let's say the same play is on stage in the country's political theater. The scenery changes, the actors age, the lines are updated; but the script almost never changes: divide the people of this country in two along a fault line, raise the tension, and then step onto the stage as the "natural leader" of that tension.

Today, that new—or rather, old but reheated—tension line is being constructed along the "religion and secularism" axis.

This means they will try to pit the people of this country against each other once again over religion and faith.

There is no need to emphasize how dangerous this is.

Polarizations like religious vs. secular, Muslim vs. secularist, respectful of national-spiritual values vs. enemy of Islam work in their favor.

Scratching at social sensitivities over the month of Ramadan, veiled messages directed at the lifestyle of the secular segment, giving the conservative base the feeling that "look, your values are under threat"...

These are not spontaneous developments; they are the conscious use of political psychology.

Circulars sent to schools, profiling students who do not fast, playing religious hymns instead of the school bell, openly imposing religious rituals under the guise of Ramadan events...

Then...

A provocative broadcast on a pro-government television channel claiming that pork was specifically placed in front of a conservative family...

As if the secular segment in Turkey eats pork every Ramadan!

The messages Tayyip Erdoğan gave at his party's group meeting are already very familiar; things like, "Why does it bother you that our children will learn to pray and fast?"...

We are actually familiar with the picture that emerges when all these pieces are put together.

They are carefully pressing the nerve endings of the people of this country so that they react.

For example, the recitation of the Salafi oath used by the Tawhid and Sunnah Community by students in the schoolyard at the Necip Fazıl Kısakürek Imam Hatip Secondary School in Istanbul...

"Our Lord is Allah, our leader is Muhammad (pbuh), our agenda is revelation, our invitation is to tawhid and sunnah, our struggle is against shirk, bid'ah, and disobedience. Our fear is our sins, our hope is divine mercy. Our wish is to be among the truthful, the martyrs, and the righteous."

Moreover, the footage was shared from the community's social media account.

Now, let someone try to criticize it.

Within three nanoseconds, someone will press the button and start a lynching campaign on social media. If that's not enough, the judiciary will take action, and they will immediately detain and arrest them on charges of "openly inciting the public to hatred and hostility" or "openly insulting the religious values adopted by a section of the public."

It never fails.

What happened to secularism, freedom of expression, and the political unity of the country, which are guaranteed by the Constitution...

Afterward, every reaction Tayyip Erdoğan gives will not only consolidate his own base but also cause confused voters to turn the rudder in favor of the government.

If he thinks he cannot turn the economic picture in his favor during the upcoming election process—which everyone knows does not seem possible—he will prefer to create a controlled social tension and go to the election in that atmosphere.

The possibility that the "our values are under attack" rhetoric will override rational evaluations at the ballot box is not zero.

However, this strategy has two risks.

First, extreme polarization creates fractures in society that are difficult to reverse. The fault line scratched today for a short-term election calculation could turn into an uncontrollable social tension tomorrow.

Second, the fact that the voter is no longer the same voter...

The younger generation, in particular, is not as submissive to identity politics as before. Even religious youth prioritize their economic future, areas of freedom, and merit. A political language that constantly produces crisis and tension has created fatigue after a point.

The picture is not simple for the opposition either.

If it responds to the trap set on the religion-secularism axis with emotional reflexes, it will fall into the game set by the government.

It is of critical importance that the CHP, in particular, defends secularism with self-confidence and awareness of its historical responsibility, without falling into the trap but also without being timid.

At this point, any hesitant attitude or step backward will cause Tayyip Erdoğan to gain political ground.

It must prevent the government from establishing the political equation of "Muslim people on one side, CHP on the other."

It is necessary to expose the setup in a language that the people of this country can understand.

It is extremely important to bring the agenda back to the topics of economy, law, and justice with a cool head, without escalating the tension in a way that would benefit the government.

There is no other way.

Otherwise, it's all over.

Let us underline this with a thick pen several times, and with that, we conclude our article.