The signs are not a good omen!

It has been 12 days since America and Israel attacked Iran.

Not only the Middle East, but, so to speak, the very marrow of the entire world has been shaken. It is not just the blood, tears, and destruction brought by war; markets are also ablaze due to oil prices.

In other words, a regional war has begun to shake the entire world with the impact it has created.

As the cost of the war increases, things are getting complicated for Trump as well. By now, he should have realized that Iran is nothing like Iraq, Libya, or Syria.

Iran is not a country that can be brought to its knees with two or three weeks of airstrikes.

For this reason, there are reports that those in Washington are pondering a ground operation and that plans at the Pentagon are largely complete.

No matter what anyone says, launching a direct ground operation against Iran is an extremely risky option.

We can say that it is not an easy target, given its geography, population, the size of its army, and its paramilitary forces.

Those in Washington are aware of this.

And so is the American public...

Following what happened in Afghanistan and Iraq, the American public does not look favorably upon a new and major ground war; this is what the polls show. They do not want their children to die in a war that actually has nothing to do with them and return home in a plastic body bag.

For this reason, it is not difficult to guess that Trump and his cronies are looking for other options for a ground operation.

Without further ado, let us ask: Could Turkey be one of these options?

When we look carefully at some of the developments in recent days, we see that attempts are being made to gradually make Turkey a part of a new military tension through NATO.

For example, after two missiles fired from Iran were shot down in the air, the debris of the ammunition that hit those missiles fell into Turkey... Followed by statements from both NATO and the Ministry of National Defense!

Let us say that these are not exactly the usual kind; it is as if they are trying to find an excuse for the inexcusable.

NATO, which has turned a blind eye to Turkey's fight against terrorism for decades, seems to have fallen madly in love with Turkey when it comes to America's strategic interests in the Middle East...

The alliance's spokespersons came out and stated, "Another missile directed at Turkey has been intercepted. NATO is ready to defend all its allies against any threat."

If we did not know their past, our eyes would well up with tears.

Come, let us read between the lines of these sentences.

In diplomatic language, NATO has emphasized its own defense capacity and the alliance's will to protect Turkey following the incident, and so on...

But what it actually means is: Whether the target of the missiles fired from Iran is the British bases in Cyprus or the American base in Crete; it does not matter at all, I will shoot those missiles down over Iraq or Syria, and I will make the debris falling on Hatay or Gaziantep a cause for war under the pretext of protecting Turkey...

Could the calculation be to mobilize all NATO countries against Iran by saying, "Iran attacked Turkey"?

The message "We will defend every inch of NATO territory" is not for nothing!

Let us open a brief parenthesis here and ask: If you were so keen on defending Turkey, where was your mind when PKK terrorism was massacring 50 thousand of our people? And let us continue.

Secretary General Mark Rutte did not neglect to say that the incident was serious, making flashy sentences like, "NATO's air and missile defense neutralized the threat. This is proof that NATO will defend every inch of its territory," and so on.

At first glance, these expressions can be seen as a classic message of deterrence.

But that is not the case; despite saying the incident was serious, he did not bring up Article 5 of the alliance, which regulates collective defense.

Afterward, NATO decided to deploy Patriot air defense systems to Kürecik, Malatya.

The sending of the Patriots was presented technically as a "defensive measure," but it is a strategic step taken within a much larger military equation far beyond that.

Because Patriots are not just a defense system. They are also one of the first steps in effectively turning the region into a military operational zone.

Let us also remind you that Malatya Kürecik is a critical radar base in NATO's missile defense system.

This base had already been operating for years to monitor Iran's ballistic capacity. Now, the deployment of new defense systems around it suggests that the military preparation in the region is serious.

At this very point, the question that comes to mind is:

How will Turkey be included in this equation?

There is also a political dimension to the matter.

The answer to this question is hidden in the negotiations conducted behind closed doors between Washington and Ankara.

Let us recall...

The Halkbank case, which has been seen in America for a long time, was an extremely critical issue for Turkey. This case had the potential to produce direct political consequences.

It was hanging over the head of Tayyip Erdoğan and his family like the sword of Damocles, so to speak.

In other words, it was a case that concerned not only Turkey but also Tayyip Erdoğan personally. It was precisely during such a period that a decision was made to pursue a path of reconciliation instead of continuing the case. A "deferred prosecution agreement" was made between the Department of Justice and Halkbank.

The case has been halted for now.

The criminal case, which has been ongoing since 2019, has been suspended for 90 days. Now, Halkbank is expected to fulfill the terms of the agreement.

This is quite remarkable when compared to European banks that have paid billions of dollars in fines in similar sanctions cases!

Within the scope of the agreement, Halkbank is required not to engage in transactions with Iran that would violate sanctions, and an independent compliance auditor is to be appointed to oversee the bank's operations.

If the conditions are met, the case will be dropped.

Let us not go into the technical details of the matter, but this decision means the closing of a file that has been creating a crisis in American-Turkish relations for years.

Let us not beat around the bush; the equivalent of this gesture from Washington in diplomatic language is clear:

"If you are on my side in this war, I will provide you with the convenience you want."

Those who are somewhat familiar with these matters know very well that such messages are not given openly in international politics. But everyone understands.

On one side, increasing military pressure on Iran...

On the other side, NATO strengthening its military presence in Turkey...

And in the background, the closing of the Halkbank file...

These are not very good omens for Turkey.

America may not want to enter into a direct and large-scale ground war with Iran.

Will it push Turkey to the front line?

Let us underline this with a thick pen:

Turkey becoming part of a direct military tension with Iran would be a development that would further destabilize the region.

The economic consequences would be severe.

The security consequences would be severe.

The diplomatic consequences would be severe.

It would weaken Turkey's own decision-making mechanism.

It would become part of others' strategies.

Perhaps the most dangerous aspect of the developments taking place today is this. It is as if Turkey is being drawn into a much larger conflict slowly, step by step, without even realizing it!

In short,

Let us put a period to our article by saying that the signs are not a good omen.