What if Turkey gives up being a 'guarantor'?

Two days ago, we wrote that the Central Asian Turkic Republics' recognition of the Greek Cypriot Administration as the “Republic of Cyprus” and the appointment of an ambassador in exchange for the EU's 12 billion euro investment pledge was the most critical own goal Turkey has suffered in its foreign policy in recent years.

Moreover, not only was there no reaction from the government, but not even a decent statement regarding the matter was issued.

It was striking that there was no effort shown to prevent this.

We had said, “They didn't do it, they didn't want to do it; perhaps they thought it was time to completely write off the TRNC, or perhaps they didn't want to spend such an important trump card (refugees) for Cyprus, other than keeping their own power guaranteed, we don't know.”

The information coming from the deep corridors of Ankara is not a good sign.

Let's get straight to the point:

The government could write off the TRNC at any moment; in other words, we should not be surprised if, within a short time, it begins taking steps to abandon its right of guarantee stemming from international treaties and recognizes the Greek Cypriots as the legitimate representative of the Republic of Cyprus.

Do not think, “That wouldn't happen.” When the Annan Plan was put to a referendum, it was a near miss. If the AKP dared to do this when it hadn't even completed its first two years in power, it can certainly pull the plug on the TRNC now.

Those who are somewhat interested in foreign affairs know very well that these things are done gradually. A policy change is not made suddenly; potential domestic reactions and the resulting political cost are calculated, carefully weighed and measured; then the people of our country are persuaded, and then the button is pressed.

For example, the meeting Tayyip Erdoğan held with the President of the Greek Cypriot Administration (GCA), Nikos Christodoulides, at the European Political Community Summit held in Hungary last November was marketed on state-fed news channels as “President Erdoğan met with world leaders in Hungary.”

Moreover, Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis and Hakan Fidan also attended the meeting.

If such a meeting had taken place 25 years ago, it would have caused an uproar in Turkey; no matter who was in power, the opposition would have turned everything upside down.

Of course, since there is hardly anyone left in the country to ask, “There is no wedding, no feast, why did my brother-in-law kiss me?” and question why such a meeting was necessary, not many people probed the matter too deeply.

It is understood that Tayyip Erdoğan is heading toward a serious paradigm shift in foreign policy.

Since he has little left to sell domestically to maintain his power, we can say that he intends to proceed through geopolitics from now on.

His attempt to get cozy with the Greek Cypriots is for this reason.

The issue, of course, extends to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.

For Turkey to have a say in the East-West trade and energy corridor, Cyprus must cease to be an “issue.”

The bargaining taking place in the Syria, Israel, and Cyprus triangle is of critical importance for the future of the regime that Tayyip Erdoğan is trying to establish domestically. The pressure he has increased on the opposition, such as the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu and operations against CHP-run municipalities, should also be viewed from this perspective. In other words, he is telling Europe: “You can only carry out these matters with me.” There is no doubt that the Europeans have received the message.

Moreover, with recent developments, he has achieved a balance on the seesaw between America and Russia.

As for Trump, things are already going well.

He knows that Tayyip Erdoğan will not go against his word, one way or another.

Now let's get to the crux of the matter...

He is aware that in order to handle all of this smoothly, he must guarantee the Islamist-Kurdish regime through a constitutional amendment at home. That is why he throws anyone who speaks out, or has the potential to speak out, into prison without blinking an eye.

We do not know how aware the opposition is of all this.

In short, Turkey is going downhill like a truck with failed brakes.

Turkey losing Cyprus would mean the Anatolian geography remaining defenseless against any kind of threat coming from the Mediterranean. Let us conclude our article by saying that it would be impossible to compensate for such a major mistake.