'Voter' fortification on a knife's edge!

The war in Gaza, which began with Hamas's attack on October 7 and continues with Israel's heavy retaliation, has brought the government in Turkey to the threshold of a new era in its relations with Western countries.

In the early days of the crisis, Erdoğan was displaying a cool-headed approach with statements that were somewhat measured and more balanced than before, inviting the parties to act with restraint.

Just as he did between Ukraine and Russia, he was presenting a neutral stance immediately after the Hamas attack that would provide him with room for maneuver on both sides.

However, this did not last long.

Last week, in a way that would make Western countries' hair stand on end, he increased the dose of his criticism after saying, "Hamas is not a terrorist organization, but a liberation and mujahideen group."

He did not stop there; he said he had canceled his plan to visit Israel and that Israel was "acting like an organization" against Palestine.

The notable detail in his sentence was that while criticizing Israel, he had not placed the term "terror" before the definition of "organization."

His attempt to look charming to the West by using supposedly diplomatic language was not enough to save appearances!

He was subjected to a heavy bombardment of criticism.

The Western press launched a salvo.

Yet, Erdoğan had been trying to get closer to Western countries for some time.

The economic crisis in Turkey was turning into a depression, and hot money was needed to overcome it.

Hot money coming from Western countries could have given Erdoğan a breather before the elections.

Mehmet Şimşek was also leaving no door unknocked in search of money.

On the other hand, Erdoğan was looking for an opportunity to meet with US President Biden, even though he knew he was not particularly fond of him.

Taking what he considered an important step, he signed the document regarding Sweden's NATO membership and sent it to the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM) for approval.

Thus, he could solve the F-16 issue before the election, get back some of the money for the F-35s, and perhaps even make an official visit to the US.

He could have used a few photos taken with Biden to the fullest domestically, with the pro-government press hyping it up.

But whatever happened, Erdoğan suddenly took his foot off the brake.

And he did so at the risk of leaving the contacts that Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek were trying to conduct with sensitivity abroad in dust and smoke.

Let us answer the question of whether this change in attitude was due to the war in Gaza gradually turning into a massacre, or because he saw that he would not be given a place in the diplomacy being conducted and the possible peace table to be established later, by saying "it depends on the situation" for now, and continue.

Although some of the Western diplomats in Ankara think that he gave an emotional reflex due to his beliefs, when Erdoğan's pragmatism is taken into account, we can say that the background of this approach is an effort to fortify the conservative, nationalist voter to align behind him before the elections.

While it is obvious that the votes that fled from the AKP in the May 14-28 elections went to the MHP, Erdoğan will not leave this field empty.

It would be naive to think that he will not exploit the Gaza crisis for all it is worth until the local elections.

The rally held in Istanbul one day before October 29 was the first step of this.

Will the strategy of "fortifying his own base through inflammatory rhetoric against the West," which he has applied before almost every election for 21 years, succeed this time, and even if it does, will Western countries digest Erdoğan's support for Hamas and his approach toward Israel and say "let's look at the next matches"!

This is where the rubber meets the road.

Even if the Islamist oligarchy and its cronies do not feel the economic crisis, a large part of society is struggling with deep poverty and the trauma created by this poverty.

There are retirees trying to live on one meal a day.

Developmental disorders have begun to appear in our children due to malnutrition.

The state of university students who do not study while living with their families is dire...

In the markets and bazaars, the era of 150-200 grams has begun. Fruit has started to be sold by the piece.

Because refugees drive down the labor market, people are working for almost just enough to feed themselves.

In other words, "voter fortification" through topics that do not directly affect the Turkish public, like Palestine, is no longer as easy as it used to be.

There are now many more people on the streets with the attitude, "We cannot feed our hungry stomachs. What is Palestine to us?"

If he loses his balance on the issue of Hamas and Gaza, there is a risk that this will turn against Erdoğan.

On the other hand, the West does not look at Erdoğan as it used to.

In a sense, it is now being voiced more loudly that his "expiration date" is about to pass.

There is no longer an Obama in Washington or a Merkel in Berlin.

Elections will be held in the US in a year.

Can it be a question of Biden, who feels Trump's breath on his neck, inviting Erdoğan, who makes statements in support of Hamas, to Washington while looking into the eyes of the Jewish lobby?

Although those who believe he will pull a surprise move argue that if he is invited to Washington, he will change his stance toward Israel, it is necessary to understand that this strategy of Erdoğan's will no longer yield results.

Leaning on Putin in this period is not very rational.

Blackmail against European countries, especially Germany, through refugees, only works up to a point!

The white-bearded father of history keeps a list of leaders whom Western countries cooperated with as long as it suited their interests, and then buried in the dusty pages of history without batting an eye.

Moreover, this list is quite long!

Unfortunately, Erdoğan is not aware that the Gaza crisis is a very deep regional crisis that will have very important consequences in a strategic sense, and that this war Israel has entered with Hamas constitutes the starting point of a new global system.

His diplomatic literacy does not go beyond providing material for domestic politics from foreign policy.

His whole issue is to win Istanbul in the local elections and ensure the continuation of this diseased system with the huge rent that will come from there.

However, it seems that the math at home will not quite match the math in the market this time, and with that, let us put a period to our article.