Where there's smoke, there's fire!

The statement that brought this issue to the forefront of Turkey's agenda came from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Speaking to reporters at Esenboğa Airport after his meetings in Ankara, he said, "We also had important steps and important discussions regarding the evacuation of civilians from Gaza."

After that, the debates began.

The issue quickly moved to the top of the agenda on social media.

It was even claimed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, "We have reached an agreement with Erdoğan for 1 million Palestinians to become Turkish citizens and live in Turkey in exchange for 2 billion dollars."

Experienced diplomat and newly-minted politician, CHP Istanbul MP Namık Tan, also posted on social media: "While Turkey has become a refugee warehouse for people fleeing Afghanistan, Syria, and various African countries in recent years, the possibility of 750 thousand people coming to Turkey from Gaza is now being discussed."

Let us open a brief parenthesis here and say that these sentences should be read keeping in mind that Namık Tan is a former Ambassador to Tel Aviv and Washington, and has a very good grasp of the pulse of both centers, and then let us continue.

When one end of the issue touched Recep Tayyip Erdoğan through Netanyahu, the Presidential Communications Directorate joined the debate.

The Center for Combating Disinformation denied the news that Netanyahu had reached an agreement with Erdoğan for 1 million Palestinians to become Turkish citizens and live in Turkey in exchange for 2 billion dollars.

It underlined that no such meeting or agreement had taken place.

However, it did not address the comments regarding the statement Blinken made after his visit to Ankara.

When these sentences, which were expressed with diplomatic sensitivity, are examined, it is understood that even if there is no consensus between Turkey and the US for now, a formula is being sought regarding the evacuation of civilians from Gaza.

Looking at the statement, it is a matter of Turkey "taking important steps" on this issue in the coming period.

What could these steps be?

Turkey's operational initiative on the ground is limited. 

Because it has no border with either Gaza or Egypt. Moreover, the relationship between Erdoğan and Netanyahu is quite strained.

Humanitarian aid is already being provided, and this has no direct connection to the evacuation of civilians from Gaza.

All that remains is bringing civilians from Gaza to Turkey through a comprehensive evacuation operation.

So, will the government open its doors to Palestinians? 

No one can clearly answer "no" to this.

Because a similar situation was experienced during the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.

It was claimed that a verbal agreement was reached for Afghans who cooperated with the US during the occupation to come to Turkey in exchange for the political support Biden would secretly give to Erdoğan—who needs this support to maintain his power.

Although these allegations were officially denied by the US Embassy in Ankara, Afghans began to arrive in Turkey in droves in the following months.

Especially young Afghan men were coming to Turkey via Iran, waving their arms, without encountering any obstacles, and even being protected and looked after by official authorities, and not content with that, they were sharing videos on social media showing how they crossed the border.

Could a similar process be experienced regarding the planned civilian evacuations from Gaza?

Of course, if Erdoğan makes such a decision, it is impossible for it to happen secretly as it did with Afghan migration. 

Because it is almost impossible to carry out such an operation by land. That is, civilians in Gaza cannot walk to Turkey like the Afghans.

The only option left is evacuation by sea. 

It could be considered to bring civilians to Turkey by ships from any port in Egypt or from the coastline of Gaza. 

Of course, since this cannot be done quietly, Erdoğan will need to find a cover for such an operation—especially one that can convince his own base.

Let us underline that the approach of consolidating his own voters through the brotherhood of the Ikhwan (Muslim Brotherhood), the Ansar-Muhajir rhetoric, and anti-Israel sentiment, while also silencing the opposition by blaming them, has largely lost its validity.

Although official figures show it as low, it is no longer a secret that there are over 15 million foreigners in Turkey under classifications such as "asylum seekers, irregular migrants, and Syrians under temporary protection."

Adding one million, or at best 750 thousand, Gazan civilians to this could cause major fluctuations in society.

The reaction of the masses, who are already deeply troubled by asylum seekers and are increasingly hit by the economic crisis, could be triggered.

While society is suffocating in the grip of poverty and deprivation every passing day, can Erdoğan risk this before the elections?

If economic aid can be provided to Turkey—directly from the US, or secretly from Israel, or perhaps from EU or UN funds—in an amount that would help keep the dollar below 30 liras until the local elections, Erdoğan might say "yes" to bringing civilians from Gaza to Turkey.

Thus, the price hikes that rain down almost every day could be postponed until after the elections, and with the false spring that will emerge in the economy, Erdoğan could win the major cities, especially Istanbul.

Moreover, with the hype of the Palace media, a story of "hero Erdoğan, the protector of the oppressed Palestinians" could even be created for him from this.

It is also possible to read the initiative launched by Emine Erdoğan to bring orphaned Palestinian children to Turkey and the Ministry of Health's plan to treat approximately one thousand cancer patients from Gaza in Turkey as an effort to convince public opinion before Turkey opens its doors to Palestinians.

Let us put a period to our article by saying let us make what this means for Turkey and its possible consequences the subject of another article.