Will it start a war?

This time, the plans made at home did not match the reality of the marketplace.

Despite all the efforts of the palace media, they could not extract a success story from the Gaza issue to exploit in the local elections.

They wanted to play the mediator in this crisis that has turned the Middle East into a bloodbath and write their name in history, "The great leader who brought peace" they wanted to be, but the brakes failed. After saying whatever came to mind to Israel,  they declared that Hamas was not a terrorist organization, and the nature of the situation changed in an instant.

When Egypt and Qatar took the lead in the hostage exchange, their enthusiasm was cut short.

'It became clear that we could not proceed from here. Where else can we go?' even if he asked those around him, the current picture is not very bright in terms of what can be converted from foreign policy to domestic politics.

In the current state of affairs, 'hey America, hey Europe' the political return of posturing against the West by saying this is almost non-existent.

The Karabakh issue has cooled down. Moreover, Azerbaijan stands with Israel.

Shouting and yelling at Greece and Sweden no longer receives much applause either.

And what about Syria...

With the US and Russia there, the steps he can take are limited.

They might not find enough material here to fuel religious and nationalist rhetoric.

So, if the Eurofighter negotiations with the UK reach a conclusion in a few months, and if Germany also says "yes," would a Eurofighter jet brought to Turkey with a ceremony a week before the local elections, for example, tickle the fancy of the voters?

That seems unlikely.

The atmosphere has changed significantly since before May 14-28. The agenda on the streets in Turkey is different now.

The markets are on fire! No one can keep inflation in check.

The situation has become unbearable. To put it mildly, everyone is at their breaking point.

People's perception of prices has completely collapsed.

While the vast majority of the public is condemned to live below the poverty and hunger thresholds, the behavior of the vulgar, rampant minority that feeds and grows fat on the AKP's sick system—as reflected on social media and television screens—is enough to drive even the most mild-mannered people to madness.

Pensioners trying to survive on one meal a day, minimum wage earners who haven't been able to afford meat for months, and university students walking kilometers in the winter frost just to eat free meals provided by municipalities may have become normalized, but there are now babies and children in this country suffering from developmental disorders due to malnutrition!

In foreign policy, virtual tales of heroism adorned with empty rhetoric are no longer the valid currency they once were.

Until now, they have feasted on foreign policy, fueled by the hype of the palace media. They have managed to pass off the greatest defeats in the history of the Republic as victories to the domestic audience.

Because their algorithm is entirely geared toward winning elections, they have exploited this fertile source to the fullest to keep the Islamist and nationalist segments in line behind them.

However, this time the situation is manifesting in a very unfavorable manner.

The source of the rhetoric that has so far strongly fortified their voter base is beginning to dry up.

They cannot find the empty space to bluster as they did before, and even if they do, it no longer resonates either domestically or internationally.

It has lost its seriousness in the international community. No one even says hello unless there is an interest involved. 

His counterparts do not want to meet with him, even in passing, because they know he will use it for domestic consumption. 

Everyone has realized that the "world leader"image is nothing more than a balloon.

Especially the Westerners, knowing that he can quickly backtrack on his statements or political positions, do not feel the need to give a proper response regardless of what he says. When this is the case, the stage of mutual confrontation is never reached. All that remains is shouting and yelling at home, and even that does not yield the desired result.

The economic crisis, and the social and moral collapse that has emerged as a result, have perhaps overshadowed foreign policy for the first time during the 21-year AKP rule.

It is clear that he is afraid, and for this reason, he is in a futile effort to change the agenda.

First, he took the side of the Court of Cassation in the crisis between the Constitutional Court and the Court of Cassation, and then he brought up the 50+1 issue, but these do not matter to those who cannot take bread home, those who collect firewood from here and there, those who cannot put a few pennies in their child's pocket, the young people who tear up their newly received university diplomas to work as restroom attendants, or the earthquake victims who have to live in tents in the rain, mud, and the freezing cold of winter.

Moreover, it can no longer feed its own electorate as it once did. With the CHP taking control of major cities, especially Istanbul, it has been deprived of municipal resources; while its core base may not have shifted, a significant portion of the masses who vote for it has reached a breaking point.

There is a state of unhappiness and hopelessness within the 'ummah'! It is clear that empty rhetoric does not put food on the table, and the fear that they might seize my property under the newly enacted law is just the icing on the cake.

People believe that things will get worse after the local elections.

At that point, there will be nothing left to stop them from tightening their grip on the public's throat.

Even if they are not pushing too hard right now for fear of losing Istanbul or Ankara, the aftermath will be a deluge.

In reality, they are anxious about the possibility of the local elections turning into a vote of confidence for the one-man regime.

If the opposition can stop wasting time on trivial matters and succeed in this, then the ballot box might appear on the horizon before 2028.

Because of all this, they needed a grand success story before the election—one that would make them look like a hero in the eyes of the public, fortify their base which has begun to dissolve, and provide legitimacy to suppress all dissenting voices.

It didn't happen!

Despite all the efforts of Hakan Fidan, İbrahim Kalın, the self-proclaimed experts who appear on palace-aligned media every evening, and the propagandists who claim to be journalists, no such story has been found yet.

But time is running out. Despite all the incompetence of the opposition, the local elections, especially in Istanbul, are not a sure thing. They are even having trouble finding a candidate to run against İmamoğlu.

The one-man regime knows that the local election is a very important threshold for its permanence, for paving the way for a lifelong presidency through constitutional amendments, and for providing the necessary conditions for its successor. It is aware that it cannot achieve the desired result in the election without writing a great success story in foreign policy or on issues prone to being blown out of proportion, such as terrorism, which concern national security.

In the midst of such a major economic crisis, a mishap in the local elections could upend all its medium- and long-term plans.

Let us pose our questions: Will it suspend its reason and act recklessly to go into the election as a victorious commander, a hero, and to rally voters around it with Islamist and nationalist rhetoric; for instance, could it send four people to Syria just before the local elections to have eight missiles fired at Turkey, or in short, could it stage a scenario similar to the one in 2015? Let us leave it to the reader to think about the answers to these questions and conclude our article.