Will Tayyip wait until 2028?

The local elections on March 31 show that the end of the political Islamist mentality, which has descended like a nightmare upon the country for the last 22 years, is approaching one way or another.

Turkey must now rid itself of this medieval remnant, this postmodern mafia-like order, and this political anomaly.

Let us look at the results cool-headedly, without getting caught up in emotions.

There is a great success for the CHP, but this does not mean it has received enough support from voters to guarantee victory in a potential general election.

Across Turkey, the vote gap between the CHP and the AKP is only around 939,000.

If you consider the total vote of the People's Alliance, the gap widens to 4 million against the CHP. In other words, the political balance has not changed much since the May 14-28 elections.

At that time, the Nation Alliance had come in first in a significant portion of major cities, including Istanbul and Ankara.

The municipalities of these provinces have now been won by the CHP.

In other words, it cannot be said that there was a dramatic shift in votes between the last general election and the local elections.

However, winning Bursa and Balıkesir is very important for the CHP.

Let us make this observation!

Bursa ranked second after Istanbul in terms of the rent distributed by the AKP to its supporters.

Losing Bursa on March 31 means that one more of the money taps has been turned off.

In 2019, the CHP had entrusted Balıkesir to the IYI Party, but no result in favor of the Nation Alliance had emerged.

It is significant that Ahmet Akın has now won the election against Yücel Yılmaz by a wide margin.

We understand from this that if it had not been sacrificed to Meral Akşener's whims in 2019, Balıkesir would have passed to the CHP earlier.

When we look at the election results through a close-up lens, it becomes clear that a portion of the Nation Alliance's components cast strategic votes in favor of the CHP in the local elections.

Last year, the overseas votes and the support of the rural population were enough for Tayyip to maintain his power.

This time, the expatriates could not come to the rescue of their 'Reis,' whose policies allow them to live like kings when they come to Turkey by increasing the value of their Euros every day.

So, could the political landscape that emerged as of April 1 force an early general election before 2028?

In the coming period, we will discuss the possible answers to this question.

The fact that Tayyip has sent a message that there will be no elections for four years is of no importance. 

He has always thrived by feeding off crises until today.

He knows that in order to maintain his power and his own sense of legitimacy, he absolutely must polarize the people of this country.

By invoking religion, faith, God, and the holy book, and by scratching the nationalist vein, he can easily align the voters behind him.

In the four years he would spend without straining the country, the risk would arise that his base, which is increasingly hit by the economic crisis and living almost at the hunger threshold, would completely disintegrate.

He cannot risk this.

Even though his ambition for Istanbul did not yield results, since Tayyip's political algorithm is entirely geared toward winning elections, there is a possibility that he will pull an unlimited number of rabbits out of his hat until 2028.

As long as this bizarre regime continues to exist and he remains in that seat for life.

It is not difficult at all to guess how ambitious he has become just because he lost Istanbul.

Let us underline with a thick pen that he will want to go to a possible early election by eliminating the psychological superiority that the CHP gained in the local elections.

To make people forget the AKP's failure and to bring himself to the forefront again, it is highly likely that he will take risky steps that will fortify our people through security politics and force the CHP to submit.

No one should doubt that he would easily take drastic measures.

He is aware that losing the major cities could cost him his power. Moreover, he lacks his former energy, and his health is not very good.

Although there was no significant difference in votes across Turkey in favor of the CHP between the last general election and the local elections, he knows that this could grow like a snowball effect.

The prospect of the CHP using the municipalities it holds as a stepping stone to come to power is a nightmare scenario for Tayyip.

He might even risk plunging the country into an all-out war under the guise of fighting terrorism. After all, the terrorist organization is waiting in the north of Syria, ready for action. 

A few harassing shots directed at Turkey or a couple of bloody attacks would easily give Tayyip the opportunity he wants.

What happened in Turkey after losing the parliamentary majority in the 2015 general election is still fresh in everyone's memory.

The events that took place in Van following the election could be a warning flare for this!

It is difficult to say whether he will hit the brakes domestically due to the impasse in foreign policy.

It is clear that Western countries are not pleased with the prospect of Tayyip losing power and falling from office. The development of nationalist reflexes in Turkey does not serve the interests of the US or the European Union.

Furthermore, a potential early election would open the door for him to serve another term as President.

Let us emphasize this point as well.

Now, let us come to the ten-point expert question...

Is it possible to explain the political landscape that emerged on March 31 solely by the fact that the masses hit by the economic crisis, especially retirees, showed a red card to the AKP, the reaction against the refugees who have quietly occupied the country, the growing hatred against the nouveau riche, aggressive Islamist minority, and the accelerating social and moral decay?

Of course, these have a significant impact, but a large portion of our people living in major cities, in particular, have become completely fed up with this archaic mentality of political Islamists.

Hundreds of guided journalists, thousands of fed trolls, billions in budget, and unlimited state resources did not bring him success.

Because people want to be free, to breathe freely, to live freely, to listen to music, to go to concerts,  and to have a couple of drinks without feeling any pressure.

They do not want to be constantly exposed to someone's hateful words, ugly facial expressions, threatening sentences, or finger-wagging.

Political Islamists have killed the hopes of this country over the last 22 years.

The route for those wanting to flee Turkey is not just Europe and America. The number of people who want to come to Southeast Asian countries, where the standard of living is much lower than in Turkey, and build a new life there is not insignificant.

In short, Turkey has reached a turning point.

The CHP has a historic responsibility. Let us conclude our article by saying that it needs to start working for a potential general election now without squandering this success and must take its steps without making any strategic mistakes.