Will the mullah regime collapse?

Let's get straight to the point: the mullah regime in Iran will not collapse easily.

Those who think "the time has come" by looking at opposition movements—almost all of which are fed from the outside and are not independent of regional and global developments—may be disappointed.

The multiplier effect of a nearly thousand-year-old state culture combined with Shiism has kept Iran standing in some way despite all external pressures since the Islamic revolution.

Let us not ignore the support of Russia and China in this, but the example of Syria has not yet become history. Let us refresh our memories; Moscow and Beijing standing behind Assad was not enough to keep him in power.

In other words, the issue is not just support from the outside.

For this reason, we can say that internal dynamics are more decisive in the regime's ability to maintain its existence.

Until today, it has resisted all kinds of foreign threats and harassment with strong social fortification. The vast majority of the public was not exactly at peace with the regime, but when it came to the survival of the country, people became united against the enemy.

But this time, the picture seems "a notch" different! Ultimately, empty pots have driven people to the streets.

Yeşim Demir, one of 12punto's valued writers, penned an extremely detailed and informative article on January 2 titled "Life is stopping in Iran, the streets are speaking," as an academic who knows these matters well.

Let us look at the issue from a journalist's perspective.

First of all, we must emphasize that the developments in Iran are the latest link in the critical process that began after Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

Neither America nor Israel felt the need to hide that the ultimate goal for them was Iran. Imperialism's ability to move comfortably in the Middle East, as if walking through a village without dogs, depended on breaking Iran's resistance.

It was of critical importance that America's interests in the region were not harmed and that it remained in "constructive" cooperation with Israel.

So far, things have not gone exactly as they wanted. Although they have dealt major blows to its proxy organizations one after another, they have not been able to crack Iran's shell.

However, the nature of the situation has begun to change in recent days.

Let us try to explain as best we can.

The current breaking point of the Middle East today is Iran. Let us emphasize this with care!

Tehran is currently going through an extremely difficult test in a triangle of external pressures, economic collapse, and widespread social anger; this should not be underestimated at all.

How the process will conclude is unknown for now.

Because this test is not only about Iran's internal dynamics, the regime, or the legitimate demands of the people; the developments are testing the entire region from Turkey to the Gulf countries, and even the regional-global power balances and security architectures shaped on the American-Israeli axis.

When we put on our close-up glasses, we see that it is not just students and the youth taking to the streets in Iran; the Grand Bazaar tradesmen and merchants, who act with economic reflexes, are also taking part in the protests despite being historical supporters of the regime.

This indicates that the danger level for the Iranian regime is not just symbolic but structural.

Let us elaborate a bit more.

The wave of protests in Iran first began on an economic basis. In addition to the rial falling to record levels, inflation rising rapidly, and the public's purchasing power hitting rock bottom, this collapse also began to threaten small tradesmen. For this reason, tradesmen, especially in traditional trade centers like Tehran's Grand Bazaar, closed their shops and joined the protests.

This showed that despite the rhetoric of the religious elites, the regime was increasingly squeezed by economic demands.

The participation of the commercial sector in the protest is extremely important symbolically.

Because this mass was the social base of the regime. It was known for the relationship of loyalty it had established with the regime since its inception. The Islamic Republic leaned on this base and derived its legitimacy from it. Tradesmen had stood by the religious elites in many waves of protest since 1979.

In other words, they had protected the regime in some way.

But today, the same segment has taken to the streets with political-economic demands.

With the situation as it is, state institutions have begun to struggle not only to calm the streets but also to ensure the legitimacy of the regime.

There are a few main demands at the center of the tradesmen's protests:

Controlling the dollar exchange rate and eliminating commercial uncertainty, protecting small businesses that are facing the danger of bankruptcy due to rapidly rising inflation, and improving economic policies and the living conditions of the people...

Let us underline once again with a thick pen that the protests of the bazaar tradesmen, which started with ordinary economic grievances, have evolved into anti-regime rhetoric. The fact that some slogans directly target the upper echelons of the regime indicates that the protests have become a direct question of regime legitimacy, not just "economic demands."

Today's Iranian regime stands on three legs:

The security apparatus, that is, paramilitary elements like the Basij and the Revolutionary Guards; state ideology, religious legitimacy, and the tradesmen and working classes...

Economic collapse and widespread dissatisfaction have seriously eroded the weakest of these three legs, namely the social base.

However, the regime's security apparatus is still strong and has the capacity to apply harsh repression. Indeed, hundreds of people have been detained to suppress the protests, and harsh interventions have been made against the demonstrators.

Although it is too early to talk about the collapse of the regime in Iran today, the social reactions that the economic collapse will create show that the current government cannot manage the conditions on its own. But the regime may buy time with minor reforms and government changes.

So far, this strategy has always worked.

Well, will it be a balm for Iran's deepening economic troubles and the wounds of society that have reached the stage of gangrene?

Unfortunately, it does not seem very possible.

Deep economic fractures and the loss of social legitimacy carry a risk of long-term instability, which concerns not only Iran but the entire region.

Let no one have any doubt that the impact of the social and political earthquake that will emerge with the breaking of the fault line in Iran will be enormous.

Let us say that we will make the possible reflections of the developments right next to us on Turkey, whether it will cause the flare-up of Kurdish separatism, and more importantly, whether it will trigger a process leading to fragmentation like a Syrian model, the subject of the next article, and let us put a period here for now.