Foreign policy, national interest, and the nature of alliances

The process in Syria, which culminated in Assad taking refuge in Russia and HTS coming to power, continues to hold its place on the global agenda. What can be said for now is that the US and Israel have emerged as the winners, while the hands of Russia and Iran have been weakened in Syria. 

On the other hand, the contraction in the world economy, the slowdown in growth, and economic problems seem likely to trigger new geopolitical tensions. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world economy will continue to grow very slowly over the next 10 years. Unemployment, poverty, the high cost of living, and inflation will continue to remain at the top of the agendas not only for poor and developing countries but also for developed countries. National debts will multiply. Again, according to IMF reports, the debt stocks of many developed countries exceed their national outputs, reaching up to twice as much in some and nearly three times as much in others. Debt in the private sector, the public sector, and among households is increasing.  

Despite this picture in the West, the Chinese economy, which has grown by nearly 10 percent annually on average for about a quarter of a century, is still growing at over 5 percent, even if it has fallen below that growth rate in recent years. This strengthens China's hand not only on an economic scale but also in foreign policy. 

Yes, the US dollar is still the most widely used currency in foreign trade and the most preferred reserve currency by a wide margin, but BRICS member countries are prioritizing trade in their national currencies. Yes, the US is still the world's largest economy, but the US, which alone produced half of the world's output when World War II ended (1945), can now only produce nearly a quarter (23 percent). Yes, G7 member countries hold a very important position in the world economy, but BRICS member countries are also strengthening their positions. 

The trouble in the world is not limited to the economy. Instability, tension, and social and political polarization are also coming to the fore in the domestic politics of countries, including those in Europe. There is no one who thinks that stability will come to the Middle East anytime soon, that Israel's oppression, massacres, and barbarism will end, or that the war between Russia and Ukraine will end in a short time. 

Under all these conditions, it is essential to think about foreign policy more cautiously, prudently, carefully, and attentively, and to maintain distance from rhetoric aimed at domestic politics on this issue.

Because foreign policy is a field that is influenced by and influences many elements, actors, and developments. Economic problems, income inequality on a national and global scale, inequalities on a national and global scale, natural disasters, irregular migration, conflicts, tensions, social issues, and polarization within and between countries are all elements that affect foreign policy. Of course, one should not forget the conjuncture. Because while searches for cooperation on a global scale and tendencies toward detente in world politics come to the fore in certain periods, inward-looking tendencies and reluctance regarding global cooperation draw attention in other periods. 

In recent years, it has been observed that countries have been following such a line in foreign policy: 

Countries generally prefer tactical alliances rather than strategic ones, short-term relationships rather than long-term ones, bilateral relations between countries rather than between pacts or blocs, and single-issue, topic-based relationships rather than package deals containing many topics. In this way, they can act faster, more comfortably, and more flexibly. They think their room for maneuver has expanded and believe their hands have been freed.  

In foreign policy, as needs change, alliances also change, and another alliance is born in the face of every alliance. 

In short, one should not forget the following words of the famous British Prime Minister Lord Palmerston, who wrote the book on diplomacy, intelligence, and imperialism in the world: 

“England has no eternal friends or enemies, only permanent interests.”