The Munich Security Conference and the limits of US power

The 62nd Munich Security Conference, held in Munich, Germany, has once again shown that the differences of opinion within the Atlantic alliance are not to be underestimated. However, despite all the ambitious words spoken by European leaders, they possess neither the courage, the capability, nor the will to put these words into practice and do what is necessary.

What is happening in the Atlantic alliance is not new; it is an old debate. Western leaders are having a difficult time not only in foreign policy but also in domestic policy. From poverty to unemployment, from inflation to the refugee-migrant issue, their tasks are difficult. US President Trump also sees this. His country's state capacity is weakening. Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans can stop the decline in its hegemonic capability and ecological dominance. The US cannot prevent the rise of its rivals, such as China and Russia, or their forming an alliance among themselves.

Since international relations is a discipline where needs and necessities come to the fore rather than preferences, alliances change when needs change. Every alliance gives birth to a new alliance against it.

The US is struggling to adapt to changing balances. This is the reason for its hardening, its irritability, and its declaration that it will no longer abide by the order whose rules it set and whose institutions it established itself. This reality is already reflected in the country's economy, diplomacy, and social structure. In a country with a population of 343 million, 7.3 million people are unemployed. The country's federal debt is very high; 38.7 trillion dollars. Its economic size is 31.2 trillion dollars. Income inequality is at a frightening level. The wealth of the 50 richest people is equal to the wealth of half the population. By the end of 2025, the 10 richest billionaires in the US added another 698 billion dollars to their wealth in one year. More than 40 percent of the US population and half of its children are considered low-income. According to OECD data, the US ranks first in relative poverty, second in child poverty and infant mortality, and second to last in life expectancy.

Therefore, when talking about the US, it is essential to pay attention not only to the imperialist character of the country but also to its economy, social structure, problems in the health and education systems, high crime rates, and overflowing prisons. There are many and varied political, social, cultural, and class divides in the US. It is difficult to solve these problems in the short term.

US POLICIES REGARDING CHINA AND RUSSIA

The biggest rival of the US is China. This situation is already reflected in foreign policy, national security, defense, and strategy documents. China, along with Russia, is characterized as a "hostile state" and a "state that challenges US hegemony." However, despite their political and diplomatic problems, the US and China both cooperate and compete on an economic scale. The country to which the US is most indebted is China. The country to which China is most owed is the US. Economic relations come to the fore with their mutual investor dimension, debtor-creditor dimension, export-import dimension, and competition dimension. It is impossible for them to give up on each other.

China, the world's second-largest economy after the US, has surpassed the US in calculations based on purchasing power parity and has become the largest economy. China is the European Union's second-largest partner in goods trade after the US. China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3.357 trillion dollars by the end of 2025. China surpassed the US in production in 2011, in goods trade in 2013, and in the number of patents in 2019. It became the world's largest consumer market in 2020. It is expected to be the world's largest economy in 2030.

The US led the quadrilateral alliance called QUAD (US, Japan, India, Australia) to encircle China from its immediate vicinity. It is striving to expand this alliance even further. The US is trying to prevent the rapprochement between China and Russia and to neutralize the institutions that these two countries participate in and lead (such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS). It strongly desires that India, in particular, be in close cooperation with the US against China. It is developing a special strategy called the Indo-Pacific Strategy in this regard. But so far, it has not found what it hoped for.

It was seen once again at the Munich Security Conference that when Germany says it wants to be a political, diplomatic, and military power commensurate with its economic, industrial, and technological power, it experiences problems in its relations with the US. However, despite these words, Germany cannot take action. It is increasing its defense budget and making big promises about joint steps in defense, security, and foreign policy, and even nuclear deterrence, together with France, but it cannot do what is necessary. Let us remember that in recent years, the US and Germany admitted that they had been wiretapping each other's leaders through intelligence agencies and had imposed large fines on each other's major companies.

With Donald Trump's return to the White House, the US began to send more moderate messages to Russia. Its sensitivity regarding Ukraine has decreased. It took steps to cool down Russia's close relationship with China a bit. It did not find what it hoped for.

Russia is a great power with its rich natural gas and oil resources, its defense industry based on high technology, and its capacity to build nuclear power plants. It has the largest surface area in the world. It is rich in terms of trained human resources. Its state experience, bureaucratic tradition, and leadership ability, which has come to the fore with Putin, are solid. It is also benefiting from the eroding power of the US, especially in Ukraine.

TURKEY'S RELATIONS WITH THE WEST

The US has a strong and deep-rooted influence in Turkish political life, bureaucracy, civil-military security institutions, the business world, academia, and trade unions. Loyalty to NATO is strong in Turkey, both in the government and the opposition. On the diplomatic level, although Turkey sometimes experiences problems in its relations with the US and the European Union, economic relations are solid. Turkey's largest economic partner in foreign trade is the European Union, and specifically Germany within the European Union. It is followed by Russia and China. Russia is Turkey's largest energy supplier. The Russians are also building Turkey's first nuclear power plant in Mersin Akkuyu.

The greatest threats to Turkey's independence, integrity, and sovereignty originate from the US and Europe. The biggest supporters of anti-Turkey terrorist organizations such as FETÖ and the PKK-PYD-YPG are the US and the European Union. In addition to terrorist organizations, the support the US has given to coups and coup attempts is also known. The US is trying to establish a Kurdish state by dividing 4 countries in the region (Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey). In the past, many problems have been and are being experienced between Turkey and the US, such as the Johnson Letter, the U-2 spy plane crisis, the missile crisis, the embargo imposed after the 1974 Cyprus Peace Operation, the March 1st memorandum, and today's CAATSA sanctions, the F-35 fighter jet and S-400 crisis, the Halkbank case, the Pastor Brunson crisis, and the support given to the so-called Armenian genocide allegations. The US always positions itself against Turkey in bilateral and multilateral issues to which Turkey is a party.

The US is an imperialist state. Its priorities, expectations, political culture, principles, values, goals, interests, concerns, threat definitions, and threat perceptions are different from those of Turkey. Furthermore, the US is not just the White House. Congress, the bureaucracy, intelligence agencies, the Treasury, the Departments of State and Defense, the business world—led by the military-industrial structure—academia, think tanks, the media, and lobbies are power centers that must be taken into account.

For the US, Turkey is important due to its geopolitical position, its Muslim identity, and its possession of the second-largest army in NATO. It is not a strategic ally of the US. It is a solution partner whose cooperation it values in Middle Eastern issues. Because Turkey purchased the S-400 air defense system from Russia, the US did not give Turkey the F-35 fighter jets for which it had already paid. It excluded Turkey from the production process of these aircraft. It activated CAATSA sanctions.

US-MIDDLE EAST RELATIONS

The US won in Syria. It broke the influence of Russia and Iran. Although the US gives priority to China and devotes a significant portion of its energy to containing China, it will not withdraw completely from the Middle East. Even if it reduces its military presence in this region, it will never leave entirely. The US interest in the Middle East can basically be explained by these 7 points:

First is the security of Israel. Second is the effectiveness of the US over energy resources and routes. Third is regime change in Iran. Fourth is the establishment of a Kurdish state. Fifth is ensuring the security of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries it leads. Sixth is reducing Russia's influence in the region. Seventh is curbing the growing weight of China in the region.

Due to its declining state capacity, as has been seen more clearly in recent years, the US is putting its allies in the region more to the fore. It is prioritizing dark warfare methods, proxy wars, and hybrid wars to destabilize the region, including the use of terrorist organizations.

There is no great power that challenges the US in the Middle East in terms of its power. A state that wants to establish hegemony on a global scale must be able to compete with the US on an economic, industrial, technological, and military scale. It must have offensive capability, deterrence, the ability to form alliances, and the skill to deprive its rival of area dominance in military terms. It must have economic and cultural power and public diplomacy tools that influence other countries. It must be able to produce consent and convince others of its own leadership.

THE DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN THE WORLD

The US has around 800 bases, large and small, in more than 150 countries around the world. This military presence is also the guarantee of its economic power. It is the guarantee of the use of the US dollar as a circulating currency on a global scale. However, for the US, this situation is not sustainable on a global scale. It also accepts this with the Monroe Doctrine. This is the reason for its focus primarily on its immediate vicinity, the American continent. The fact that Trump is less willing to use military force, even though the US has a navy on the high seas, is not a preference, but a necessity.

The US is trying to protect the superiority it gained after the Cold War in these 4 areas at all costs: Economy, technology, defense, and culture. However, the US is not at its former strength. There is no absolute, far-ahead US hegemony today. The US is far from the days when it led the world with its culture, cinema, music, academia, lifestyle, clothing, sports, and nutritional habits, alongside its economy, industry, technology, and military power. It has ceased to be the locomotive of growth and production. It has lost its former appeal.

There is no longer a US that stands out with both occupations and color revolutions in a vast geography from the Middle East to Central Asia, from Africa to Latin America at the same time. The world must see this reality and act accordingly.