The importance of energy in the wars in Eurasia and the Middle East

Whether it is the Russia-Ukraine war in Eurasia or the oppression and genocide committed by Israel in Palestine with the backing of the US and Europe in the Middle East, these conflicts are closely related to energy competition, among other dimensions. This is because the US is attempting to break the influence Russia has established over Europe through the energy it sells, reduce Russia's financial gains, and transport energy from the Caucasus and Central Asia to European markets while bypassing Russia. At the same time, the US wants to include Israel in the energy equation in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. Since the question of which energy resources will be transported via which routes is also a matter of economy, politics, diplomacy, security, and intelligence, detailed answers must be provided regarding energy.   

We know that security of supply in energy is important. It is important that energy supply is sustainable. Efficiency is important. Clean energy is important. Because energy has an indispensable importance in a very wide field, from transportation to housing, from industry to agriculture.  

When thinking about energy consumption, the focus is on population and population growth. The focus is on vehicles, automobiles, public transport, and shipping. The focus is on the efficiency, continuity, security, affordability, and quality of energy. The focus is on energy dependency (on a single source, a single country). For example, the share of road transport in Turkey is at the 95 percent level. Therefore, even though Turkey is one of the lucky countries in terms of solar energy and geothermal, high external dependency on oil and natural gas always increases the energy bill. Because Turkey imports 92 percent of the oil it consumes and all of its natural gas. This situation is one of the most important reasons for the current account deficit. Turkey imports 41 percent of the natural gas it consumes and 52 percent of its oil from Russia. Therefore, Turkey must use the resources it has very consciously, very efficiently, and very economically.  

There is a direct relationship between energy consumption and industrialization, economic growth, population growth, and enrichment. Turkey is behind developed countries in energy consumption per capita. Although the energy sector in Turkey is one of the 5 largest energy sectors in Europe, energy consumption per capita in our country is half of the OECD average. 

WHAT IS THE STATE OF OIL CONSUMPTION IN THE WORLD? 

The US is one of the world's largest producers of oil and natural gas. In its foreign policy, as well as its defense and security policy, the importance of having control over energy resources and routes and being effective in energy trade is great. While the share of LNG (liquefied natural gas) is increasing in the world, the US is one of the important producers in this field as well, along with Canada and Qatar. The increase in LNG consumption reduces the demand for natural gas, which pulls down the price of natural gas. 

According to information provided by International Energy Agency President Fatih Birol, 85 percent of the power plants established in the world in 2024 were renewable, 10 percent were coal and natural gas, and 5 percent were nuclear power plants. Electric cars account for one-quarter of the cars sold in the world. 6 out of every 10 electric cars sold in the world are produced in China. Interest in nuclear power plants is increasing in the world. 

Today, the growth in oil demand is not as fast as it used to be. There are several reasons for this. The first is the slowdown in growth in the Chinese economy. Because while more than 60 percent of oil demand came from China alone in the past 10 years, China was growing at over 6 percent during that period. Since the Chinese economy has been growing at around 5 percent recently, oil demand has decreased. The second is the increase in electric cars in the world. One out of every 4 cars sold in the world is electric. China has made large-scale production in this field, lowering production costs and equalizing them with other cars. This has reduced the demand for oil. The third is that oil production in the US, Canada, Brazil, and Venezuela remains at a high level. This pulls prices down. The fourth is that the increase in natural gas production and LNG production continues in the world, especially in the US and Qatar. This also pulls prices down. 

Fatih Birol reminds us; the Industrial Revolution triggered coal consumption. Now we are in the age of oil and natural gas. This situation will last for many years. Then the age of electricity will come. In the last 10 years, global electricity demand grew twice as fast as global energy demand. In the next 10 years, it will grow 6 times faster. The widespread use of air conditioners also plays a role in this. As people's income levels increase and the weather gets hotter, the use of air conditioners and electric vehicles increases. Moreover, with the spread of artificial intelligence, data centers that run continuously consume large amounts of electricity. 

Fatih Birol draws attention to China's position: China alone produces 70 percent of the world's batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines. It produces a lot, and it produces cheaply. In the future, their share in the market will be equal to oil and natural gas. The US and India are also making moves in these areas. While global growth is slowing down, China alone accounts for 30 percent of global production. The global automobile market is 90 million, and China produces 45 million automobiles per year.

ENERGY-FOREIGN POLICY RELATIONSHIP

We know that a state's energy policy must be in line with national interests. Energy policy must be holistic. Because energy policies are multidimensional, ranging from industry to transportation, from foreign policy to the environment, from defense and security policies to urbanization. Therefore, all these dynamics must be considered together, and all must be taken into account. 

Let us repeat; energy supply security is a fundamental issue not only in the context of economy, industrialization, development, and production, but also in terms of foreign policy and national security. In addition to energy supply being reliable, cheap, uninterrupted, and stable, it must not be dependent on a single energy source and a single supplier country. Diversity in energy sources and supplier countries is mandatory. For example, Turkey is dependent on natural gas for electricity generation and on Russia for natural gas supply, and this is not a healthy situation. 

ENERGY, TECHNOLOGY, INDUSTRY, AND TRADE RELATIONSHIP

The energy sector is immediately, directly, and heavily affected by developments in foreign policy, regional crises, internal conflicts, and wars. Moreover, the energy sector is a sector where technological competition is intense due to the use of advanced technology in exploration and operation technologies. Searching for, finding, extracting, processing, and distributing energy is a high-cost business. For this reason, scarce resources must be used very carefully, meticulously, and accurately. In this context, priority planning is essential. 

Energy policy must be national. There cannot be an energy policy that changes significantly according to the different ministers of the same political party. For example, Turkey must first determine in which regions of our country it will search for oil, natural gas, and coal. Only then can scientific answers be given to those who say "there is no oil in Turkey," and only then can it be understood how scientific it is for the AKP to find natural gas in the Black Sea before every election. For this, it is essential that the state's energy institutions and organizations work autonomously, away from political interference.   

In energy policies, clean energy, domestic energy, and renewable energy are of course the priority. Turkey is a country with high potential in renewable sources, especially solar and wind. It is necessary to put this great potential into action with support, incentives, and appropriate loans. If this is achieved, these energy sources can be easily used for heating and lighting in the provinces and regions where they are put into operation. Energy saved through efficient and conscious use of energy is equivalent to the energy to be obtained from several large power plants. 

WHAT SHOULD TURKEY DO?

Let us emphasize that the continuity, accessibility, and price of energy are very important. They are all interconnected. Since so much energy is consumed in industry and the industrial sector is the locomotive of the economy, it is essential that the energy consumed in industry is stable and reasonably priced. Energy, industry, and trade policies are interconnected. 

Turkey must be more courageous, more planned, and more willing to search for and put its own resources into operation. It must use its existing installed capacity in the most efficient way and reduce the loss-leakage rate in energy transmission to the lowest level. Most importantly, energy must be a state policy, and continuity, institutionalization, and planning must definitely be taken into account.