US–Israel aggression and Iran’s strategy

The attacks by US imperialism and Israeli Zionism on Iran continue. With this war, the US is also sending a message to the world and to China. This is because Iran is known for its anti-US stance. It stands out as one of China's important oil suppliers and one of the foreign trade partners that China values. However, no matter what the US does, its influence across the world is not what it used to be; it is weakening. Whether it is its banditry and piracy in Venezuela or its aggression and barbarism in Iran, none of it can mask the decline in the US's capacity for hegemony.

The prominent initial results of the ongoing war can be listed as follows:

First, the victimhood that Israel has constantly brought to the agenda due to the Jewish genocide committed by Nazi Germany during World War II, the shield of immunity it has acquired, and its exemption from criticism are no longer valid. The Israeli genocide in Palestine, Israeli aggression in Lebanon, and Israeli barbarism in Iran have caused a front to be formed against Israel in the West, including the US, and have led to Israel being harshly criticized all over the world. The stance taken by Spain against the attacks of the US–Israel duo on Iran, the reaction shown to Israel in the US across a wide spectrum ranging from former soldiers to university rectors, and the objections coming from the US Congress against the US attacking Iran alongside Israel require careful examination. In Europe, too, the old sympathy for Israel no longer exists among the public, if not among the political elites.

Second, it is one thing for the reactions of regime opponents in Iran toward the regime to be justified and legitimate regarding important topics such as freedom, human rights, democratic participation, women's rights, oppression of the people, corruption, unemployment, poor governance, and the high cost of living; it is quite another to pin hopes on the attacks of US imperialism and Israeli Zionism against Iran. The Iranian people will bring democracy to their country only and solely through their own struggle, not through the attacks and intervention of US imperialism.

Third, it is noteworthy that US President Trump has harshly criticized Spain—which does not stand in line with his country and, moreover, objects to US aggression—and announced that he would cut off trade with this country, and that he has condemned the UK (the other being Israel), one of the US's two strategic partners, on the grounds that it does not follow the policy the US wants. Germany, as the leader of the European Union, has once again shown by following the US that it has no global ambition, no courage, and no will. It has been seen once again that the European Union has no influence in the resolution of any global problem. The European Union has neither seriousness nor deterrence, neither effectiveness nor prestige.

Fourth, the person proposed by Westerners and liberals who are against the current regime in Iran to replace the existing regime is Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah of Iran. Pinning hopes on a monarchy or a dynasty for democracy to come to Iran has demonstrated the hypocrisy and lack of principles of Westerners and liberals, and has proven their desperation.

Fifth, it has been seen once again that Iran, aside from its technology, production capacity, and target-hitting rate, has the courage, will, determination, and capability to strike Israel. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz (roughly one-fifth of the world's energy trade passes through this strait) is also an important step. This step has immediately increased oil and natural gas prices and caused panic in Western economies and in countries that are dependent on foreign energy supplies.

Sixth, by attacking US bases in Gulf countries led by Saudi Arabia and the British base in the Republic of Cyprus, Iran has sent an important message to both Arab countries, the British, and the Greek Cypriots. It has shown that if they attack Iran or open their territories to aggressors for attacks against Iran, they will become targets.

Seventh, the US's efforts to persuade the Kurds in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq to attack Iran, in order to squeeze Iran on several fronts at once and divide the power of the Iranian army, have not yielded the expected result so far. The US-backed separatist Kurdish organization PJAK within Iran is also an imperialist-guided terrorist organization that the US has deployed to the front, just like the PKK.

Eighth, the US wants Turkey and Azerbaijan to attack Iran. Turkey and Azerbaijan, which have land borders with Iran, are particularly important as Turkic states. They are important due to the high Turkic population within Iran, the Shia population of Azerbaijan, and the fact that both countries have land borders with Iran. Furthermore, Azerbaijan has very close relations with Israel. The border that Turkey shares with Iran, where it has 3 border gates, is our oldest border. The 1639 Treaty of Zuhab (Qasr-e Shirin) is the treaty that largely determined today's borders.

Ninth, Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is among the actors that Iran calls the axis of resistance and the Shia crescent, has entered into conflict with Israel. The Houthis in Yemen, who stand out among Iran's proxy forces, will also join the war sooner or later.

Tenth, the primary military objectives of the US–Israel duo are to destroy Iran's military capacity and eliminate its nuclear capability. Their political objectives are primarily to change the regime and then to divide Iran. US imperialism and Israeli Zionism, which want an Iran divided among Turks, Persians, Kurds, and Balochs, thus desire to maximize Israel's effectiveness in the region, break apart states that are against Israel, and shape the Middle East in line with the needs of imperialism.

Eleventh, the US and Israel are doing everything they can to incite a Shia–Sunni conflict, a Turk–Persian conflict, an Arab–Persian conflict, and a Kurdish–Persian conflict. One must be careful against this.

Twelfth, as Karl Marx said, "Every war is at the same time a civil war." The fact that Israel has such a wide network of informants and agents within Iran, that it is organized enough to produce drones within Iran, and that it knows the places where the cadres governing Iran and the civilian-military security bureaucracy live, work, and hide, and kills them by attacking those places, has once again shown the security weakness and intelligence gap within Iran.

Thirteenth, the US–Israel aggression against Iran has increased the determination of a significant portion of regime opponents in Iran to defend their homeland against imperialist attacks, provided that their objections to the regime remain reserved. The situation of Iranian dissidents and regime opponents who demonstrate with US and Israeli flags alongside the Iranian flags of the Shah era is a cautionary tale.

Fourteenth, the separatist Kurds, Baloch militias, and the People's Mojahedin organization that the US has deployed to the front against the regime in Iran do not have the power to overthrow the regime in Iran. Even if the Iranian regime is battered, worn out, tired, or even if very important cadres are killed, Iran does not resemble Iraq, Syria, or Venezuela. The regime in Iran is not dependent on a single man, and even if it is not as much as it used to be, its support among the people is still high enough not to be underestimated and not to be destroyed by external intervention.

Fifteenth, Iranian Shiism and Iraqi Shiism are not one and the same. Iranian Shiism is fed by the Qom and Mashhad schools, while Iraqi Shiism is fed by the Karbala and Najaf schools. Iran's influence in Iraq cannot be explained solely by the Shia sect; Iran has other tools as well.

In conclusion, it is difficult for the US to risk a ground operation against Iran, and it is also difficult for such an operation to be successful. With its population reaching 93 million, its surface area exceeding roughly 1.6 million square kilometers, its depth of front, its mountainous geography, its war-experienced armed forces, and its defense industry developed with the contributions of China, Russia, and North Korea, Iran is a very formidable enemy for the US. The prolongation of the war and the increase in the impact of the missile and rocket attacks Iran has carried out against Israel will strengthen Iran's hand.