Voter behavior, populism, and Artificial Intelligence

Research on voter behavior is a crucial field of political science, encompassing economic, political, cultural, social, ideological, psychological, and class-based dimensions. These discussions come to the fore after every election. Extensive commentary is made on what voters base their decisions on and what factors have the greatest impact on voting behavior. 

In recent years, both in our country and in the West, the generally accepted assumptions and trends regarding the impact of the economy on voter behavior are being questioned more than in previous years. The question, "Is the impact of the economic situation on voter behavior not as high as it used to be?" is being asked more frequently. 

The fact that voters in Turkey do not bring left-wing parties to power despite the state of the economy, that the ruling party still receives around 30 percent of the vote despite a poor economic track record, the loss of the US presidential election by Democratic candidate Kamala Harris—who prioritized the economy—and the erosion of center-left parties in Europe are the first examples that come to mind in this context. We can certainly multiply these examples. 

Voters' agendas regarding the economy are undoubtedly a priority and are decisive. However, they have other agendas as well. For the majority of voters, while the economy is in first place, other factors also stand out. The conjuncture is influential. Security concerns are influential. Democratic demands and expectations regarding the rule of law and freedoms are influential. But the economy comes first. 

There is more to it. For instance, the fact that center-left parties in our country and in Europe have shifted too far to the right, have been influenced by liberal platitudes, and have followed the US lead in foreign policy has shaken the trust of voters—especially those who would normally be expected to vote for the left—in these parties. In our country, the prioritization of identity politics over class politics by left-wing parties has narrowed their base. Increasing security concerns in our country and the world, and the reaction to refugees and immigrants (which is also closely related to the economy and unemployment), affect the voting behavior of the electorate. As seen in the latest US presidential election, because older immigrants are opposed to the arrival of new immigrants, they have supported Trump, who emphasizes anti-immigrant policies, far beyond expectations. It should not be forgotten that charismatic leadership also has an impact on voter behavior.

In recent years, especially in the West, the decline in interest in politics and the erosion of trust in political parties have also lowered voter turnout. Discussions regarding how ruling parties use state facilities and public resources, as well as allegations of corruption, nepotism, favoritism, and cronyism, and the inability to sufficiently audit the income sources and financing of political parties, are the main factors that shake trust in politics. 

Another negative development observed in politics in recent years is this: 

In the communication established between political parties and voters, by utilizing advanced technology, digital channels, and artificial intelligence, issues, problems, and facts are distorted, bent, and twisted on a post-truth plane. Reason and science are excluded, while superstitions, lies, rumors, conspiracy theories, and prejudices are brought to the fore. Objective reality and cause-and-effect relationships are rejected. Manipulation, misinformation, disinformation, black propaganda, and gray propaganda are prioritized. Attempts are made to cloud the minds of voters and influence their preferences by creating uncertainty and doubt. 

It used to be said, when listing the ways to grow in politics: 

Consistency and reliability in politics ensure credibility, and credibility brings growth along with it. Therefore, there is a relationship between a politician's respectability, reputation, and the votes they receive. Along with these qualities, predictability is also important in a politician. 

However, it is observed that the exact opposite situations have been increasing in recent years. Authoritarian populist rhetoric finds resonance with voters. Politicians who do this have no concerns about being principled, consistent, honest, or moral. They do not hesitate to act hypocritically or to lie. Denying today what they said yesterday and making statements that are diametrically opposed to each other are common characteristics of these politicians. 

All of this erodes trust in politics, politicians, and political parties, lowers voter turnout, and strengthens populist politicians.