What should the three states in the Caucasus focus on?

The Caucasus is a small region in terms of its place on the world map, but a large one in terms of its importance both in historical and contemporary regional developments, as well as in the competition between major powers. The three states in the South Caucasus—Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia—are surrounded by three states: Turkey, Russia, and Iran. Among these, Russia is a major power, while Turkey and Iran are regional actors defined as medium-sized states. In this context, the three Caucasian states stand out both in the competition between their large and medium-sized neighbors and in the competition of global powers over Eurasia, Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Black Sea, and the Caspian Sea. As in history, they are known today as both parties to and the stage for this competition.

There are several reasons why the Caucasus has stood out as a region that must be dominated, captured, and held by warring parties in the two major world wars we experienced in the last century. The geopolitical location and strategic importance of the region immediately come to mind. The religious, sectarian, and ethnic identity and cultural diversity of the Caucasian peoples is an important factor. The value of Azerbaijan's rich energy resources and the Caucasus's energy transit routes should also not be forgotten.

When the relations of the three South Caucasian states with major powers (the USA, Russia, China), regional actors (Turkey, Iran), and significant non-regional powers (Germany, France, the UK) are considered, the picture becomes even more complex. This is because both the relations between the three states themselves and their relations with other countries are highly susceptible to external influences.

Azerbaijan-Armenia relations are, as is well known, very problematic and tense. They have fought wars in the last few years, and in the end, Azerbaijan liberated and reclaimed its occupied territories in Karabakh from Armenia. Armenia's relations with Georgia are also strained. In contrast, Azerbaijan-Georgia relations are strong. Beyond their historical, social, and cultural ties, there is cooperation in the energy sector and commercial relations between them.

Among the three Caucasian republics, Azerbaijan is the most stable politically and the strongest economically and militarily. It observes regional and global balances in its foreign policy. It is cautious, prudent, and circumspect regarding entering international alliances. It values regional cooperation. It is neither in the wake of the USA nor under the guidance of Russia. Azerbaijan and Turkey view each other as "strategic allies" and define themselves as "two states, one nation." Azerbaijan, which has very close relations with Israel, has also seen its relations with Iran begin to soften recently, in parallel with Iran changing its stance on Armenia.

Armenia is unstable in its domestic politics. Its economy is weak, and its people are poor. The influence of the USA, Europe—led by France—and the Armenian diaspora in the West in domestic politics narrows the maneuvering space for politicians. Recently, its relations with Russia have been quite tense. For this reason, it attaches great importance to developing its relations with NATO and has announced that it will withdraw from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. Armenia's formal recognition of the Palestinian state has been interpreted by foreign policy experts as a reaction to the support Israel has given to Azerbaijan.

Georgia is also known for its weak economy, widespread poverty and unemployment, and unstable politics. In this country, too, there is a fierce competition in domestic politics between pro-Western forces and pro-Russian factions, just as in Armenian domestic politics. In Georgia, which was the scene of the first of the color revolutions that took place in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan in 2003, 2004, and 2005 respectively, power has changed hands several times between pro-US and pro-Russian factions. After the Georgia-Russia war in 2008, Abkhazia and South Ossetia broke away from Georgia and declared unilateral independence, with Russia's support, of course.

Ultimately, when the state capacities, alliance relations, and relations of the three republics in the South Caucasus with each other, their other neighbors, and global and regional actors are examined, it is seen that all three must act carefully and cautiously. Since the resolution of the problems between them (which is not easy) would have a multiplier effect on a national and regional scale, focusing on this is the most logical path.