A Montreux-like model is essential for the Strait of Hormuz

With the Iran-US&Israel war entering its 39th day following the April 8 ceasefire, the classic free passage regime in the Strait of Hormuz has effectively collapsed. The structure that has emerged today is a selective passage model trapped between the law of peace and the law of war, and this situation is creating a fracture not only for the regional but for the global system.

The disruption occurring in this artery, through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass daily, is producing chain reactions ranging from energy supply to production, while effectively eliminating the assumption that straits are open under all conditions.

The issue is no longer the existence of passage, but rather under what rules and under whose supervision it will be conducted. The new traffic regulation announced by Iran after the ceasefire also institutionalizes military control under the name of maritime spatial planning and effectively turns the strait into a security zone.

While this structure may be legitimate in war, it is not sustainable in peace. The solution is to adapt a Montreux-like regime to Hormuz during peacetime. Because the example of the Turkish Straits has proven that it is not unlimited freedom, but regulated freedom, that brings stability.

Extra-regional military buildup must be brought under control through tonnage, type, and duration limitations, and Iran and Oman should ensure security on the basis of co-ownership.

The de facto practices emerging on the ground show that passages are now conducted with security premiums and even non-dollar payment systems, simultaneously turning Hormuz into a field of competition for financial systems.

However, this model will face international resistance in the long run: Therefore, the most rational path is a multilateral regime that balances security with economic interests.

Otherwise, the fragmented structure beginning in Hormuz will also fragment global maritime trade.