Trump’s Wild West and the Greenland move

Just as in the 19th century, the US is becoming an actor that no longer establishes order through its central authority, but rather instrumentalizes conflict.

The US is now openly questioning the legality of Denmark’s control over Greenland and is not ruling out an annexation scenario. According to statements by Stephen Miller, Trump’s domestic security advisor and Deputy Chief of Staff, "we live in a real world governed by power and strength..." US Vice President JD Vance also summarizes it as follows: "Friendship is friendship, but Greenland is ours. Europe and Denmark could not ensure the security of Greenland. The US will protect its interests and is ready to use force if necessary." These words, uttered at a time when the US Defense Budget is proposed to reach 1.5 trillion dollars in 2027 and, under Trump’s directives, US federal agencies have ceased participation in and funding for 31 UN bodies and 35 non-UN organizations, remind us of the era two centuries ago.

A Repeat of the Wild West

The Wild West era of the 19th century represented not only America’s geographical expansion to the west but also a mentality where "state authority retreated, brute force replaced the law, and individual violence was legitimized." The federal center was weak, rules were temporary, and only power and weapons spoke. Justice was often shaped by the hand of the one who drew their gun faster. As settlers advanced, railroads were built, borders changed, and the old order was dismantled, but a new one could not yet be established in its place. Although this chaotic interim period later became a romantic adventure film scenario for Hollywood, it was in reality a history of lawlessness, arbitrariness, and the desire to establish order through force. The picture the US has entered today with the Trump era resembles a modern version of this new Wild West mentality. Institutional checks and balances are eroding, the binding nature of the law is being questioned, and an "order first, rules later" approach is coming to the fore in domestic and foreign policy. As the value of agreements in the international system declines, the language of threats, sanctions, and unilateral decisions is becoming normalized. Just as in the 19th century, the central authority is becoming an actor that no longer establishes order but instrumentalizes conflict. For this reason, the Trump era should not be read as an exception or a temporary deviation, but as a harbinger of a new era of Wild West-style lawlessness on a global scale. This period, where rules are dissolving, borders are being pushed again, and the use of force is justified by pragmatic rather than moral reasons, is a dangerous transition zone showing that the old order has closed but the new one has not yet been born.

Welcome to the Era of Anarchy

The last year since Trump returned to the stage shows that the international system has entered an anarchist phase that is no longer "extraordinary" but directly out of control. The support and legitimization by the US of an open massacre and genocide in Gaza; the attack on Iran via an Israeli order; the installation of a militant once associated with terrorism at the head of Syria; the conducting of drone attacks on Putin’s residence with CIA support while Ukraine and Russia continue peace talks; military pressure and operations against Nigeria in Africa; the kidnapping of the head of state and open regime interference in Venezuela; the seizure of a Russian-flagged tanker by an American Coast Guard vessel in the open waters of the North Atlantic Ocean in a manner reminiscent of piracy; and finally, Greenland becoming a "geopolitical object" that can even be demanded... All these developments are not isolated crises. They are signs that the area known as the Western Hemisphere has ceased to be a rule-based order and has entered a collapse process similar to the Wild West. Law, norms, and institutions have been replaced by brute force, faits accomplis, and naked calculations of interest.

It’s Greenland’s Turn

Trump’s declaration to incorporate Greenland into US territory, right while the intervention in Venezuela was ongoing, became perhaps one of the most serious breaking points of this wild era. Because the NATO Secretary General, the UK, and EU countries, who reacted very weakly to the US operation to kidnap Maduro, entered a serious crisis of confidence in the face of this demand by Trump. Because the US was sacred to them. They could not imagine a world without the US in terms of both energy and defense. The same US, let alone going to the defense of Europe if necessary, was openly demanding territory from Europe. After heavy targets like Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela, it was the turn of Greenland, an inseparable geographical part of the North American continent. But why is the island of Greenland, which has 42 thousand km of coastline and a native population of 50 thousand and is the territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, so important? It is very important because it controls the Arctic Ocean.

Melting Glaciers and Changing Geopolitics

With the acceleration of global warming, the Arctic Ocean has turned into a field of not only ecological but also geopolitical rupture. Since 1978, the ice area in the Arctic has shrunk by approximately 39 percent, with an average of 70 thousand square kilometers of ice melting recorded annually. Simulations show that after 2040, the region will largely be open to year-round maritime transport. This situation has both opened new doors for maritime transport and brought long-inaccessible energy and mineral resources to the center of global competition. Today, it is estimated that approximately 30 percent of global natural gas reserves and 13 percent of crude oil reserves are located in the Arctic basin. For the Russian Federation, which owns approximately 65 percent of the region’s coastline, this situation is of vital importance; because approximately 80 percent of Russia’s hydrocarbon reserves are located in this field. Indeed, Russia has long viewed the Arctic Ocean as its "front yard" and has reinforced this approach with both economic and military moves since 2007. On the other hand, the US share of maritime jurisdiction in the Arctic Ocean is around 3%. If it incorporates Greenland into its own sovereignty, this value will approach 15%.

New Maritime Routes

The second fundamental reason why the Arctic has become critical for the global system is the new transport routes that will revolutionize maritime trade. Thanks to melting glaciers, lines such as the Northern Sea Route (NSR), the Northwest Passage, and the Arctic Bridge dramatically shorten the distances between the Atlantic and the Pacific. In this way, significant fuel savings have become possible, and dependence on the Suez and Panama canals has begun to be questioned. According to a study conducted in China, if China uses the Russian-controlled Northern Sea Route between Europe and its own coast, it can save nearly 100 billion dollars a year.

Chronology of Transitions

This transformation has moved out of theory over the passing years and has been proven by de facto passages. The use of the Northwest Passage by the passenger ship Crystal Serenity in 2016, the arrival of the container ship Venta Maersk in the Baltic via the NSR in 2018, the unescorted passage of the LNG tanker Christophe de Margerie in winter conditions in 2021, and the successful completion of the Saint Petersburg–Shanghai voyage by the non-ice-class container ship Flying Fish 1 in the winter months of 2024 have shown that the Arctic has become a systemic, not an exceptional, transport area. With these developments, the NSR has become the first large-scale global maritime transport route operating outside the de facto control of American naval power. The US derives its power from its ability to control global maritime trade routes at the place and time it wants, and to implement closures and blockades if necessary. However, it cannot do this in the NSR. If it possesses the island of Greenland, its opportunities to do so will increase.

Military Mobilization in the Arctic

Developments in the Arctic have created a strategic rupture in terms of the US disadvantage. Washington, which did not invest enough in the Arctic in the post-Cold War period, is facing a serious asymmetry against Russia’s icebreaker fleet of 11 ships, 8 of which are nuclear, its Northern Fleet, and its infrastructure buildup. Russia, as the only country in the world with nuclear icebreaker ships, has established a de facto monopoly in the Arctic. The Northern Fleet constitutes approximately 67 percent of the Russian Navy; the region is being militarily fortified with bases centered in Murmansk and Yamal, early warning radars, airfields, and rapid response forces. The fact that over 50 percent of the Arctic Ocean is in the status of Russian continental shelf and exclusive economic zone, and that the open sea area is limited to only 12 percent, further strengthens Russia’s legal and geographical superiority. The US is trying to balance this situation through NATO. Norway, as the only NATO country with a permanent military headquarters north of the Arctic Circle, has become Washington’s battering ram. The Trident Juncture, Cold Response, and ICEX exercises, the continuous deployment of British and American troops in Norway, and the admission of Sweden and Finland to NATO in 2024 are parts of this strategy. However, these moves are far from eliminating Russia’s extraordinary geographical and military superiority in the Arctic against the US. That is why Greenland is coming to the fore.

The GIUK Gap and the Military Importance of Greenland. Greenland, the world’s largest island, is two-thirds the size of India and has only 56,000 indigenous people living on it. On the other hand, Greenland has been one of the keystones of the strategy to monitor and limit the exit of the Soviet, and today the Russian, navy into the Atlantic via the Northern Fleet since the Cold War. Russian nuclear submarines and surface warships emerging from the Barents and Norwegian Seas must largely pass through the GIUK Gap (Greenland–Iceland–United Kingdom line) to reach the Atlantic; that is why the area around Greenland has been placed at the heart of the US submarine warfare architecture. SOSUS-type acoustic detection systems laid on the seabed capture the acoustic signatures of Russian submarines in this strait line, providing early detection, tracking, and engagement capabilities if necessary. In 1951, the US and Denmark signed a security cooperation agreement between them. According to this agreement, the US was responsible for the defense of Greenland against the Soviet threat during the Cold War. The US operates the Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base), which is part of the NORAD missile and space tracking system today. The base houses ballistic missile early warning radars, space surveillance-satellite tracking, Arctic command-and-control, and critical sensor infrastructure supporting the northern leg of the GIUK Gap; although its presence, which reached 8–10 thousand personnel in the Cold War, has dropped to approximately 600–800 military and civilian personnel today, it retains its status as the first ring of US homeland defense and the key point of the architecture for monitoring and limiting Russia’s access to the Atlantic due to its high technology density. In short, Greenland is not just a geographical island; it is a strategic gate that controls the access of Russia’s naval power to the Atlantic. However, the US does not intend to settle for the single base it has. This is one of the most critical reasons for the US interest in Greenland and its "wanting this island." Control of this line, which prevents the free maneuver of Russian naval power in the Atlantic, is the insurance of US nuclear deterrence and Atlantic dominance. On the other hand, Greenland is much closer to the US than to Denmark. Therefore, the US views Greenland directly as a security zone.

The American Nuclear Weapons Scandal of 1968

Although Denmark is a country that has banned nuclear weapons on its territory, it was revealed as a result of an accident in 1968 that the US had secretly placed nuclear weapons in Greenland. On January 21, 1968, a B-52G Stratofortress bomber belonging to the US Air Force was flying over Greenland and Baffin Bay during a continuous nuclear-armed flight mission called "Chrome Dome." The plane was carrying four B28-type thermonuclear bombs. After about six hours of flight, a fire broke out in the cockpit, and the plane crashed on the ice about 13 km away from Thule Air Base, and the conventional high explosives detonated, shattering the protective casings of the nuclear parts of the bombs and spreading radioactive material over a wide area. There was no nuclear chain reaction in this accident, but radioactive substances such as plutonium were spread to the environment, and the region was seriously contaminated. This event also showed that Greenland had been a part of nuclear strategy for a long time without Denmark even knowing it. Nothing has changed today either. The US views Greenland as a strategic zone, and Trump wants not just to show presence, but sovereign control.

China and the Arctic Region

Another element that makes the balance in the Arctic even more complicated for the US is China. Beijing defines itself as a "near-Arctic state"; it aims to add the NSR to the Belt and Road Initiative within the scope of the Ice Silk Road. For China, this route means getting rid of the Malacca Strait dependency, reducing transport costs, and guaranteeing energy supply security. The Gazprom–CNPC partnership with Russia, LNG and oil transportation, mining investments in Greenland, and energy agreements made with Alaska are concrete reflections of this strategy. Greenland possesses 25 of the 34 critical minerals. These minerals are used in electric vehicle batteries, defense systems, chips, and modern technology fields. Previously, glaciers made mining impossible. Today, however, the melting of the ice creates easier access and lower costs. This makes Greenland a strategic treasure. Therefore, China’s investments in the region and its interest in the Arctic basin, but most importantly the Russia–China cooperation, have turned the Arctic into a multi-actor, not a bilateral, field of competition. While Greenland is becoming a transit point, the US is worried about China entering its backyard.

Conclusion

The Arctic Ocean has become one of the most critical hegemonic conflict zones of the 21st century. As the glaciers melt, not only are the seas opening up, but the fundamental assumptions of Anglo-Saxon maritime hegemony are also eroding. Global maritime control based on US dollar and naval power is facing a permanent alternative for the first time. This new geopolitical reality creates a high-risk area open to direct great power contact rather than proxy wars. What is happening in the Arctic today is not just a picture of new trade routes or energy reserves emerging with the melting of glaciers. This picture signals the dissolution of the sea-centered Western order built after World War II and a new era where naked power replaces rules. Along with the chain of crises extending from Gaza to Syria, from Africa to Latin America, the Arctic has turned into the coldest but most naked stage of this dissolution. Greenland is the cancer of the Arctic struggle. For the US, the main field of struggle will be the Pacific Ocean, but the Arctic Ocean is at least as important as that. Because this Ocean surrounds the geopolitical living space that the US has newly built for itself, namely the Western Hemisphere, from the north. How much can the US tolerate this? On the other hand, Greenland, which gained autonomy in 1979, obtained the right to hold an independence referendum with the Self-Government Act in 2009. Today it has its own parliament and government; Denmark’s authority is largely limited to defense and foreign policy. In recent years, the possibility of going to a referendum has become seriously debated. This picture creates a "window of opportunity" for the US. According to Trump, Denmark’s control is weakening and Greenland wants independence. On the other hand, China is entering the Arctic and the region is opening up strategically with the retreat of the ice. For this reason, Greenland has become very important for Trump.