The 2nd Battle of Kursk

Ukraine achieved an unexpected success with its surprise attack on Russia's Kursk Region (Kursk Oblast) on August 6, significantly changing the course of the war. We will see whether it can maintain the success it achieved in the continuation of the operation.

The Kursk Region, which Ukrainian forces attacked, is a place of historical significance where one of the fiercest battles of the Second World War took place. In the Battle of Kursk, which occurred in 1943 and took place on a battlefield larger than a quarter of Turkey, the Germans gathered the largest tank force they had been able to assemble up to that point, but they failed as they could not overcome the Russian defense. The secret to the Russians' success lay in their accurate prediction of the point where the Germans would attack well in advance. They had fortified the region for six months, and the Germans encountered a defense system stronger than they had expected. As a result of this battle, the tide of the Second World War turned decisively; while the Allies permanently took the initiative, the Germans remained in a defensive position until the end of the war.

In today's Battle of Kursk, we can say that what is happening is almost the exact opposite of what happened 81 years ago. The Ukrainians attacked the Kursk Oblast with a much smaller force than the Germans and caught the Russians off guard, achieving an unexpected success, at least as of the third day of the battle, when I am writing these lines.

Surprise, or in a more Turkish term, the "effect of surprise," is the result that every commander managing an offensive operation dreams of. A weaker force that manages to create the effect of surprise can achieve unexpected successes against a much stronger force, reverse the opponent's numerical, firepower, or positional superiority, and disrupt the opponent's plans. If the right strategies are followed in the continuation of the operation, the advantage gained in the opening move can be taken to the peak. Ukraine successfully created the effect of surprise and started the operation with a magnificent opening move, and Russia has not been able to show a reaction even on the third day of the operation.

Until recently, the Ukrainian Army was suffering from a serious shortage of reserves and was in a position where it could not replace the losses suffered on the battlefields. The Ukrainians began to solve the reserve problem starting from the beginning of June. It was a generally accepted idea that the reserves would be used to feed the defense lines, which had become quite thin and exceeded 1000 kilometers. As expected, the newly formed inexperienced units were sent to the defense lines without wasting time. However, at this point, Ukraine feinted to the right and struck to the left, withdrawing experienced units from the defense lines and sending them to the Kursk attack. The perception created by the Ukrainians' weakness in terms of personnel numbers made it possible for them to pull off such a surprise.

Since the Russians never expected such an attack, they had deployed very few units in the region. When the capability of experienced Ukrainian units was combined with numerical superiority, an unstoppable shock effect emerged. As of now, the Russians are not in a position to stop the Ukrainian advance in Kursk. We will see how much this situation will change with the dispatch of Russian reserves to the region. No matter how many units the Russians send to the region, it is inevitable that the operation will stop on its own after a certain period, as the Ukrainian Army is only capable of holding a certain amount of territory with the limited number of units it has. However, as of now, it seems that Ukrainian forces are about to carry out the most successful advance since the beginning of the war.

Ukraine's goals are currently unclear. Unlike previous raids into Russia, this operation was carried out with conventional forces. This suggests that the captured territory is intended to be held and occupied.

The captured territory has no significant strategic value, and the probability of Ukraine being able to advance to regions with strategic value is very low. Although the Russian military elements in the region have been destroyed, it cannot be said that significant damage has been done to Russia's capacity for war. Ukraine may have carried out this operation to draw Russian units currently fighting on the front lines into the region to relieve the defense in those areas, or to organize a new counter-offensive on fronts where Russian units have significantly decreased. Another possibility is to sit at the peace table with a stronger hand. However, it is too early to speculate on what the real goal is, and the operation may have a goal in a completely different lane than all of these.

The most important factor that will determine the course of the operation will be how the Russians react and how much success they achieve. The successes and failures of the parties in this operation will likely indirectly affect the battles on other fronts and will generally direct the course of the war. Considering that the Ukrainian Army carried out this operation by withdrawing its best units from the currently active fronts, it is also a very possible possibility that the tide will suddenly turn against Ukraine.

It is currently too early to make sound predictions about the course of the operation, its possible results, and how it will affect the war as a whole. The only thing that can be said for sure is that the course of the war has definitely changed.