The latest situation in the Russia-Ukraine War

The Kharkiv Operation, which the Russians launched on May 10, has almost completely lost its momentum. The Russians initiated this operation after locking Ukrainian forces along a 1,000-kilometer front line and wearing them down significantly.

In the early days of the operation, it was thought that Ukraine had no reserves left to put up a significant resistance against the Russians.

However, despite all the adversities, Ukrainian forces managed to absorb the Russian attacks. As of now, the struggle on the Kharkiv Front has turned into a static war of attrition, just like on the other fronts. Although the Russians still hold the upper hand, this superiority is not of a scale that will bring about a significant success.

In coordination with the Kharkiv Front, the Russians continue their operations on the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Kupyansk, Novopavlivka, and Kherson Fronts. In addition to ground operations on these fronts, air, missile, and drone attacks targeting Ukraine's industrial, civilian, and infrastructure targets are also ongoing.

Russia aims to deal a blow to Ukraine's fighting capacity with its aerial attacks on strategic targets behind the front lines.

Its targets include oil refineries, air and radar bases, air defense centers, and civilian targets of strategic value.

Ukraine is currently a country with limited resources. Despite this, Russia has not been able to deal a significant blow to Ukraine's war infrastructure in the strategic attacks it has carried out since the beginning of the war.

On the contrary, with the aid it has received from the US and European countries, Ukraine is increasingly improving its ability to launch drone and missile attacks from these points targeted by Russia against strategic targets within Russia.

Ukraine has many potential targets that it can hit, especially with long-range missiles. Since these targets are spread over a very wide area, it is not possible for Russia to defend all of them with its air defense systems. In this respect, Russia hitting the facilities where Ukraine's missiles are located seems to be the best defense. However, they have not been able to achieve significant success in this area so far.

Ukraine, on the other hand, has caused much more damage to Russia with its long-range strategic weapons than Russia has caused to Ukraine, and it will likely cause even more damage in the future.

Ukraine keeps Russian military targets, especially in Crimea, under pressure by constantly hitting them with missiles, and more importantly, it has achieved superiority in the Black Sea with missile and unmanned combat vehicles (air and sea).

The Black Sea is the region where Russia is most unsuccessful, and it has almost no presence in Ukrainian territorial waters. Ukraine owes this success to the weapons it has received from the US and Europe.

Considering that Ukraine will receive more long- and medium-range missiles in the future, it seems that, contrary to what Russia aims for, Ukraine's ability to carry out strategic attacks and eliminate Russian ships in the Black Sea will increase even further in the coming period.

Russia's primary goal in ground operations is to destroy as many Ukrainian ground forces as it encounters as possible and, through this method, bring the Ukrainian Army to its knees. It carries this out through a war of attrition conducted largely by artillery bombardment and air strikes. The Russians follow a strategy that centers on sending fire onto Ukrainian forces from as fixed positions as possible or by advancing with very slow and sure steps.

Although this method promises to minimize losses, it necessitates the consumption of resources on a massive scale. Indeed, since the Russians switched to a doctrine of war of attrition, they have destroyed a significant portion of Ukrainian forces. However, despite the effectiveness of their tactics, the much more capably fighting Ukrainian forces are likely inflicting more losses on the Russians.

However, while the Russians easily replace their losses, the Ukrainians, despite partially solving their mobilization problem, cannot show the same success and are struggling to hold the front line that has exceeded 1,000 kilometers.

The Russians have not yet been able to collapse the Ukrainian Army as they aimed, but despite the heavy cost of the war of attrition they are waging, they seem to be achieving success in their ground strategies.

In terms of territorial gain, the same cannot be said. Although the Russians manage to inflict heavy losses on Ukrainian forces, they can gain very little territory in their attacks due to their extremely slow tactics. This situation did not change in the Kharkiv Operation either.

The territory they have gained is very little compared to the resources the Russians have spent and the losses they have suffered. This means they are making turtle-paced progress in reaching their goals.

Although Ukraine is struggling to keep up with the war of attrition waged by Russia due to a shortage of personnel, it is currently solving its mobilization problem and has begun to compensate for losses on the front relatively better than before. This is reflected as stability on troubled fronts like Kharkiv. Furthermore, the fact that the aid sent by the US and Europe to Ukraine is accelerating seems to make the Russians' job even more difficult in the future.

As for the Russians, despite the heavy losses they have inflicted, they are still far from their goal of bringing the Ukrainian Army to its knees, and considering their rate of progress, it does not look like they will be able to achieve significant success in the near future.

Although Russia still maintains its superiority, there is currently a development in favor of Ukraine in the struggle. However, as of the summer of 2024, the only conclusion that can be drawn regarding the recovery of the Ukrainian Army is that the war will drag on even further and will definitely see 2025.