The latest situation on the Kursk Front

The Battle of Kursk, the latest large-scale operation of the Russia-Ukraine War, continues at full speed. As the operation launched by Ukraine on August 6 enters its third week, Russia has still not been able to show a significant reaction to the Ukrainian offensive, and the size of the area captured by Ukrainian forces has exceeded 1300 square kilometers. Although the operation has lost momentum, this is a situation stemming more from Ukraine's limited resources and the fatigue of the units participating in the operation than from Russia's success.

The Ukrainian Army owes its success as much to excellent planning and execution as it does to catching the Russians off guard. Thanks to the element of surprise it achieved, Ukraine managed to penetrate a very deep area.

With the loss of the element of surprise, the purpose of the operation also began to become clear. In a statement made on August 18, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the operation aimed to relieve the Ukrainian defense and that the goal was to destroy as many Russian military elements as possible.

The Ukrainian Army has been highly successful in this objective. Many military targets were destroyed or captured in the vast area penetrated. Airstrikes are also being carried out on Russian regions surrounding the captured territory. The Russian Army suffered very heavy losses because it was caught completely unprepared for this attack and could not react quickly due to its cumbersome structure. The Russian Army is a cumbersome force that, throughout its history, has only been able to organize effective operations after large-scale and long-term preparations. The Ukraine War has once again revealed that this fact has not changed. Russia has still not been able to show a significant reaction to the Ukrainian operation currently underway in Kursk. The fact that the Ukrainian advance is still continuing, even if it has slowed down, means that Russian military capacity will continue to be damaged.

In the continuation of his speech, Zelensky stated that they aim to increase the support given to them for the war to end in a fair manner, and in this respect, Ukraine needs to enter the autumn much stronger than before.

The Ukrainian Army seems to have done more than its best to achieve this goal as well. The Kursk operation is indisputably the best-planned and best-executed operation of this war. With this operation, the Ukrainian Army has demonstrated that Russia does not have an undisputed superiority, that Ukraine can hurt Russia, and that a Russian victory is by no means inevitable. Whether this battle will be a turning point, we will see in time. But with their success in Kursk, the Ukrainians have shown that the military aid provided is not a futile effort and that it can significantly change the course of the war. In other words, with this operation, the Ukrainians successfully sent the message that if the aid provided is increased, this crisis could result in favor of Europe and America.

Zelensky also expressed that they aim to create a buffer zone in the aggressor's territory, revealing their intention to remain in the region until peace talks begin. In other words, this operation does not have the nature of a raid like previous Ukrainian offensives. The goal is to exchange the territory captured in Kursk for the Ukrainian lands occupied by Russia. With the success it has achieved, Ukraine has gained a trump card that the Russians cannot ignore in peace talks. However, for this to be ensured, it must hold the territory it has captured until a ceasefire is achieved. We will see if Ukraine can achieve this with its limited resources. Aid from the West will play a critical role in this regard.

Although Russia has still not been able to establish superiority in the region, it is transferring more troops to Kursk every day. Russia will likely achieve a decisive numerical superiority in the region in a short time, and the Ukrainian advance will naturally stop completely. It is highly probable that Russia will launch a counter-offensive after achieving numerical superiority. The Ukrainians will likely establish a strong defensive position in the region in line with this possibility and wait for the next Russian attack there. For Kursk to be used as a trump card at the peace table as Zelensky aims, it is essential that Russian offensives reach a stalemate here, just as they have on other fronts, and that the clashes drag on for months.

However, it is also possible that Russia might write off Kursk or try to compensate for the defeat suffered in Kursk on other fronts by delaying the counter-offensive to be launched on Kursk. Ultimately, although the move made by Ukraine is successful, it cannot be said with certainty that it will force Vladimir Putin to change his war goals.

Furthermore, Zelensky's goal of using Kursk as a trump card at the peace table is a time-dependent situation, and in this process, Russia can recover the situation with the right moves and can even put Ukraine, which has spread its limited resources over a very wide battlefield, in a more difficult situation.