A Shelved Ukraine War

The tension ignited in the region by the October 7 Hamas attacks has become an expected yet unspoken turning point for the war in Ukraine, which is rapidly losing its importance on the American political agenda. The sustainability of the war, which has been ongoing since February 2022, had been debated behind closed doors for the last 6 months, and a reluctance regarding the economic and military support provided had become dominant. Biden has requested an additional $68 billion from the US Congress this month, on top of the $130 billion in aid he has provided so far. The newly elected speaker of the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of Congress, Republican Mike Johnson, had stated that he would block all of Biden's support efforts and would work to have the $68 billion aid package requested for Ukraine sent to Israel. 

On the European wing of the North Atlantic alliance, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni fell victim to a prank call by two Russian comedians posing as the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, but her words overshadowed this tragicomic incident. In the audio recording from September, Meloni stated that Ukraine's counter-offensive would not yield the expected results and that a point had been reached where everyone was convinced that this war needed to be ended. On the other hand, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Slovak counterpart Robert Fico began to openly express that they would block the European Union's potential military and economic support for Ukraine.    

THE WRONG WAR FOR UKRAINE

Contrary to expectations, Russia's ability to continue the war with determination brought Ukraine, which already lacked sufficient human and military ammunition resources but was fighting with the encouragement and support of the US, to the expected end. Furthermore, it was a strategic error to think that Russia, which views this war as a struggle for survival, would easily throw in the towel. It was also a serious mistake to believe that a Russia with very rich underground resources and potential trade partners in every geography could be brought to its knees with economic embargoes.

At this point, Biden, caught between Republicans in the US House of Representatives who oppose the support given to Ukraine and an out-of-control crisis in the Middle East, has effectively ended the Ukraine war in his mind as he prepares for the 2024 Presidential election. As for the $68 billion aid package he requested from Congress, Biden is most likely trying to prevent the inevitable Ukrainian defeat from turning into a sudden collapse and the loss of reputation that would cause.   

The statement made by Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi to The Economist on November 1 regarding the current state of the war, which was condemned by Zelensky, is noteworthy. Zaluzhnyi stated that the war had reached a stalemate and that no revolutionary new war technology that could overcome this deadlock appeared to be on the horizon in the near future. Noting that Russia has lost 150,000 soldiers so far and that this number would normally force a country to withdraw from a war, Zaluzhnyi also mentioned that Ukraine does not possess such human resources. 

The assessment of American political scientist Prof. John Mearsheimer supports Zaluzhnyi's concerns from a different perspective. According to Mearsheimer, who is himself a West Point graduate, in these types of wars (wars of attrition) built on wearing down the enemy, situation analysis is not done by looking at regional gain/loss ratios. In such a war, the 'casualty exchange ratio' determines whether the war has reached a stalemate. Viewed from this perspective, Ukraine has already lost the war. 

Mearsheimer's assessment also vindicates the former Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, given the current situation. Towards the end of the summer of 2022, the Ukrainian army had achieved tactical successes. Milley had said that Ukraine should have sought a deal with Russia while in an advantageous position, and that continuing the war from that point on would develop to Ukraine's disadvantage. General Milley was indeed proven right in his foresight.         

General Zaluzhnyi says that while there is no obligation to help Ukraine, the US policy of "ensuring Ukraine does not lose the war but also that America is not effectively drawn into the war" has negatively affected this struggle. Zaluzhnyi complains that military support that could make a difference in terms of quality on the front, such as M1 Abrams tanks and 'Army Tactical Missile Systems' (ATACMS), did not arrive when it was most needed. The indecision among allies works to the advantage of the Russian army, which has returned to a defensive position during this time, and renders previous gains void. Most recently, Germany announced that it would not be able to provide the 1 million artillery shells the European Union aimed to supply to Ukraine before March. 

It is thought-provoking that exactly 6 days after these criticisms by Zaluzhnyi, his assistant and friend, Major Gennadiy Chastyakov, lost his life when a hand grenade inside a package sent to him as a birthday gift exploded in the hands of his 13-year-old son.            

PROXY WAR AND THE DESTRUCTION IT BROUGHT

Although not discussed in the international press, the Ukraine war was a crisis that the US encouraged, mobilized every diplomatic element to convince international public opinion, and ensured the continuation of. The fact that the US withdrew from the war it started after throwing Ukraine into the fire, once conditions and priorities changed, serves as a lesson for many states from the Caucasus to the South China Sea. In terms of regional geopolitics, although it could not encircle Russia in the Black Sea, Biden got what he wanted in a sense by bringing the US back to the world stage as a 'global hegemon'. 

A ruined Ukraine remains. Yet, in March 2022, during closed-door negotiations held in Istanbul with the participation of Ukrainian and Russian delegations, the parties were very close to an agreement. In the draft presented to him, Zelensky had accepted the condition of pursuing a neutral policy and not hosting military bases belonging to foreign countries in his country. However, with the suggestions of the West and the US to continue the war, the Kiev administration left the table and decided not to continue the negotiations. This development was followed by an effective propaganda process on behalf of the war. 

Support for Ukraine was sought by creating a "Russian threat" perception in the world public opinion. By drawing parallels between Putin and Adolf Hitler, the perception that Putin invaded Ukraine for a personal whim and with imperialist reflexes was successfully established. This thesis claimed that Ukraine was only the first stop and that more would follow. For example, former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, who also served as the chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, ignored all geopolitical realities and compared the situation to Hitler's invasion of Poland in 1939, not hesitating to say that the real target was Europe. 

The truth is that the real goal was to expand NATO eastward, towards the Russian border, by including Ukraine and Georgia, and to prevent Russia from reaching the Black Sea and consequently the Mediterranean by encircling it. It was, of course, not expected that Putin, who looks at developments from a realistic window, would remain indifferent to this. Moreover, speaking at the 2008 Munich Security Conference, Putin had warned the Western alliance that Ukraine and Georgia were Russia's red lines.

Ignoring the warnings, the US also played an indirect role in the overthrow of the then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who followed a neutral and balanced policy, in a coup in February 2014. In response to Zelensky's provocative tone in April 2021, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that potential NATO membership would have irreversible consequences for Ukraine. In this context, we can say that Putin has maintained a consistent stance in line with regional geopolitics in the time that has passed since Russia's annexation of Crimea in March 2014.

AN IRRATIONAL AND MEANINGLESS PUSH

War propaganda that will completely exhaust Ukraine's human resources and risk the country's inevitable destruction is still ongoing. In an article he wrote for The Washington Post on November 6, Max Boot says that if the Zelensky government is not supported with mine-clearing equipment and air defense weapons, it will lose the war and this will have frightening consequences for the whole world. Lee Hockstader, also from The Washington Post, points out in his article on November 2 that the wind has turned against it in European and US politics, and claims that if Ukraine loses the war, Russia will pose a serious security risk for NATO countries. Most recently, during his visit to Kiev on November 16, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron tried to refresh confidence by sending the message that they are behind Ukraine until the end in this war. 

After this point, the only correct move would be not to push this illogical and irrational process any further and to save Ukraine from destruction by announcing that NATO has abandoned its expansion policy.