An uncontrolled, unsustainable crisis: The Israel-Palestine War

American foreign policy was associated with historical scandals during the Trump era and had lost significant influence in the eyes of the international public. Biden, in turn, created his own diplomatic scandals within the very first year of his presidency, such as the AUKUS crisis with France and the poorly managed U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The recovery of American foreign diplomacy and the restoration of lost trust would only occur with the Ukraine war that began in 2022.

This war would not only bring the U.S. back to the world stage under Biden's leadership, but it would also pave the way for a controlled and sustainable crisis with Russia, from which it could feed its own domestic and foreign policy. The Ukraine war was an irreplaceable gain for the American foreign policy establishment (or the 'deep state'). 

When we come to the Israel-Palestine conflict, the current situation tells us a different story.

If the Biden administration cannot control the Netanyahu government, we will see that this crisis, which was thought to be 'controlled and sustainable,' is developing in an undesirable direction and that the process will cause serious losses in American domestic and foreign policy.

This scenario is the worst-case scenario for Biden, who is preparing for his election campaign and portrayed himself as a world leader in his Address to the Nation on October 19.

In his speech, watched live by 20.3 million people, Biden stated that the U.S. is a beacon of light and hope for humanity. He noted that desperate people around the world who desire a better life need not to be forgotten by the U.S. and reiterated the emphasis on the U.S. as the 'indispensable nation.' According to Biden, 'American leadership is what holds the world together.'   

Although Biden portrays himself as a respected world leader defending justice against forces 'opposed to independence and freedom' such as Russia, China, and Hamas, this has no real resonance among American voters focused on domestic politics. However, the perception of a 'bad economy' makes Biden a weak candidate in the eyes of the general electorate, who are already seeking change and new excitement.

In this regard, the assessment of Julian E. Zelizer from Princeton University is significant. According to Zelizer, "given the depth of the political polarization we live in, the severity of the crisis or the President's performance in crisis management will not affect the voters' choices." In other words, the emphasis on a savior or a freedom fighter does not carry much weight with the American public.  

THE DEMOCRATS' TEST WITH NETANYAHU

The Democratic Party has always maintained a distance from the Israeli government in terms of its political line. The nuclear deal signed by the Obama administration with Iran in July 2015 was not welcomed by the Netanyahu administration. Netanyahu, who lost the prime ministerial seat to Naftali Bennett for the first time in 12 years on June 13, 2021, said, referring to himself, "Israel needs a prime minister strong enough to say 'no' to the US when necessary."

Meeting with then-Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid in Rome on June 27, 2021, Blinken emphasized the normalization process taking place between Israel and Arab states in the context of the Abraham Accords. On the other hand, he warned the Israeli government by stating that this process could not replace addressing the unresolved issues between Israel and Palestine. 

Within the Democratic Party, there is also a serious disagreement between a liberal wing composed of young politicians who are unhappy with Israel's policies and the older 'moderates' who represent the establishment.

Following the 24-hour deadline Netanyahu gave for the evacuation of northern Gaza, 55 Democratic members of Congress sent a letter to Biden and Blinken on October 13, drawing attention to the humanitarian tragedy in the besieged Gaza Strip. At that time, 423,000 civilians had been displaced, and 1,500 Palestinians, mostly civilians including 500 children, had lost their lives. The letter noted that Israel is obligated to act within the framework of international law and called on Biden to take action. 

A similar disagreement occurred in September 2021. The liberal wing of the Democratic Party, which wanted to tie military aid to Israel to certain conditions, demanded the cancellation of the $1 billion budget allocated for the 'Iron Dome' and stated that they would not approve Biden's $3.5 trillion social infrastructure package until this was done. Although aid to Israel was initially removed from the package, it was re-included and approved in the larger package on September 23, 2021.           

If we interpret American foreign policy through the lens of the Israel-Palestine conflict, Biden took a wrong step from the start by hastily choosing a side in a conflict he fundamentally cannot control. By giving open support to Netanyahu—whose ideas he does not embrace and who disregards diplomacy and the laws of war—he has sailed into dangerous waters. On July 9, 2023, he expressed his dissatisfaction with Netanyahu by calling his administration "the most radical government in Israel's history, which constantly escalates tensions between Israel and Palestine." However, as Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University has noted, the American establishment requires that Israel be supported under all circumstances. Otherwise, Biden could face a devastating attack in domestic politics. This attack would not come from the American public, but from the political class in Washington, a structure that transcends American presidents. 

A CONTRADICTORY POLICY AND AN AMERICAN PRESIDENT UNDER PRESSURE

Despite the support given to Israel, a quiet crisis is unfolding behind closed doors between Netanyahu, Biden, and the American foreign policy establishment. Time will tell how much longer Biden can tolerate Netanyahu, who insists on pursuing a policy contrary to the message of justice and peace he delivered to the world in his State of the Union address.

However, Biden, caught in the middle due to his position, does not have much time left for a solution. The tensions among students at Tulane, Harvard, and Cornell universities are a sign of the rising pressure within American society.

FBI Director Christopher Wray pointed out that antisemitism has increased by 400% nationwide since October 7, noting that the potential risk of terrorism has "reached a whole new level." 

On October 12, 2023, the U.S. Department of State asked its diplomats working in the Middle East to avoid using terms such as "de-escalation/ceasefire," "ending violence and bloodshed," and "restoring calm" in their press statements. This message was sent to the relevant parties on Thursday, after the Israeli administration gave residents of northern Gaza 24 hours to leave their homes.

During his visit to Israel on October 13 to show support, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin warned Israeli officials to act in accordance with the laws of war. By highlighting civilian casualties, he stated that they must absolutely avoid turning the international public against them. 

In his statement in Israel on October 18, Biden gave a cautionary response to Netanyahu's remark that "October 7 is Israel's 9/11." He stated that the American policy followed after 9/11 was a misguided policy that brought disaster. Furthermore, drawing attention to the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza, Biden noted that the Palestinian people are not Hamas and that Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people. In this speech, where he emphasized the importance of adhering to international law of war, he stated that regardless of Hamas's war tactics and strategy, it is important for Israel, as a serious democracy like the US, to act with this awareness and responsibility. 

In his second White House speech on October 25, 2023, Biden's disagreement with Netanyahu surfaced once again. Biden said, "There has to be a vision of what comes after, and in our view, it has to be a two-state solution." However, looking at the reality on the ground, the possibility of a two-state solution is now a serious question mark. In a two-state solution, the areas that would be the territory of the State of Palestine have already been largely cleared and are under Israeli occupation. 

Ultimately, the different dynamics between the Biden administration and the American establishment are forcing Biden to tread on very delicate ground.

At this point, the sustainability of this war for Biden is no longer possible. The only move Biden can make will be to focus on humanitarian diplomacy to reduce international public pressure and to pressure Netanyahu to end the war as soon as possible.

It would not be a surprise to see rapid diplomatic traffic in this direction in the near future.