The "Bad Economy" Perception Among Voters and the Unchanging Trump Reality

There are 12 months left until the 2024 US Presidential election. The race expected to take place between Joe Biden and Donald Trump and the possible scenarios are starting to dominate the agenda of the American media. The status of the Democratic Party in national politics from 2022 to the present and the voters' view of the country's general direction form the essence of the election debates. Especially the poll results that have started to arrive since July serve as a serious warning for Biden.

However, what is truly striking is that the figures coming from the field do not overlap with the 'bad economy' perception in the minds of voters; there is a serious contradiction between reality and perception. This contradiction is important in terms of determining the voter's likely choice at the ballot box.

According to the results of the CNN poll conducted by SSRS between June 1 and July 31, public confidence in President Biden is at the 41% level. When viewed solely through the economy, this rate drops to 37%, and when focused on inflation, it falls to 26%. Half of the population (51%) believes that the economic situation in the country is bad and getting worse. Compared to Democrats (45%) in the US Congress, confidence in Republicans (54%) is higher. 68% of voters do not believe that the American Congress, where Republicans hold the majority in the House of Representatives and Democrats control the Senate, can produce solutions to any problem.

The New York Times / Siena College poll results conducted between October 22 and November 3 are thought-provoking for Biden. In the 5 key states that will witness a real struggle in the elections, consisting of Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Trump, who is battling criminal charges, finishes comfortably ahead of Biden. In Wisconsin, another key state, Trump (45%) is just behind Biden (47%). In these 6 states, when asked "who do you trust more in the context of the economy?", the voters' choice is Donald Trump with 59% against 37%.

According to the assessment of Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia, if the election were held today, Biden would lose the elections across all demographics, especially in the Midwest region of the US. Miles Taylor, former chief of staff (2017-2019) at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, who made a similar assessment, describes the situation for the Democratic Party as "not a smoke alarm ringing, but a fire alarm."

PUBLIC PERCEPTION DOES NOT OVERLAP WITH FIGURES IN THE FIELD

According to the Roosevelt Institute, the current policy, also called Bidenomics, which marks a historic break from the neoliberal monetary policies of the Reagan era, is yielding results, contrary to the negative atmosphere prevailing in public opinion. Bidenomics focuses on increasing wages and the quality of life for the working and middle classes. In a study published in March, David Autor from MIT and Arindrajit Dube and Annie McGrew from the University of Massachusetts show that the income inequality and economic injustice that have grown over the last 40 years have improved by 25% under Biden.

Under the Biden administration, gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter of this year. In the US, which saw the highest inflation level of the last 40 years (9.1%) in June 2022, this rate is now around 3.7%. Gasoline prices, which saw an average of $5.03 per gallon in June 2022, have fallen by 32% to the $3.418 level. In his article for Bloomberg Law Analysis, Robert Combs points out that union halls are at their most active position in the country's history during the Biden era. For the National Labor Relations Board, a federal agency that plays a role in improving income and wages and determining political decisions and obligations between workers and employers, unions won 662 representation elections held in the first six months of 2023.

Looking at the order of priority, in the eyes of the voter who will go to the polls, "economic concerns" (44%) are the most important factor that will determine their political preference. This is followed by "inflation and cost of living" (19%) and "the economy in general" (16%) linked to the economy. At this point, for Biden, who is preparing to enter the 2024 Presidential election race by emphasizing economic gains and increasing prosperity, it is of vital importance to break the "everything is getting worse" perception in the minds of voters. Despite the inflation that has been falling since June, 71% of voters continue to cut back on kitchen expenses as they did in December 2022. 48% of voters say they use their cars less. Yet, there has been a significant drop in gasoline prices since December 2022. Only 20% of voters acknowledge the improvement in the economy.

REASONS FOR THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN PERCEPTION AND REALITY

The assessment of Tim Ryan, the 2020 Presidential candidate from the Democratic Party, who spoke to CNN on November 6, 2023, about Bidenomics and the latest poll results, is important. Ryan says that despite all of Biden's concrete achievements, the economic message he gives to the electorate is wrong. He also mentions that identifying the implemented economic policy with Biden's name is a strategic mistake that could harm the election campaign in the next 12 months. Moreover, the current economic policy, which the voter does not view very positively, bears the name of the 2024 Presidential candidate. Not very smart.

According to Ryan, Biden deserves praise, especially for putting the US back into a new industrialization process. So far, the inflation reduction act, clean energy, electric vehicles and battery production, the chips act for domestic production of semiconductors, and the infrastructure act are among Biden's revolutionary and successful initiatives. However, telling the voter "you are in a better situation than you feel" or telling a voter who thinks they are having problems, "actually you are not having problems" gives the impression that you are disconnected from the voter's concerns and feelings, which loses votes. Basically, the situation is perception management. And for Biden, trying to manage the perception calmly rather than forcing it on the voter is the only option right now.

On the other hand, young voters are psychologically looking for a new direction and a new excitement. They are not happy about having to choose between Biden and Trump. According to Ryan, 70% to 80% of the country now wants to see new names emerging from the young generation. Biden's advancing age is perceived as a desperation by the general electorate. Voters look at Biden as an individual. They do not see Biden as a politician who has social and economic policies and who can touch and contribute to the flow of life with his decisions. Also, there is a significant voter base that looks at Trump's Presidency with nostalgia and longing.

LATEST STATUS IN THE TRUMP - BIDEN COMPETITION

Donald Trump, who has become identified with the Republican Party and has established himself as a cult leader in the eyes of voters, is 31 points ahead of his closest rival, Nikki Haley, as the Republican Party's Presidential candidate. The CNN South Carolina poll conducted by SSRS on October 18-25 shows that Trump has a comfortable lead over all his rivals in the intra-party competition with 53% of the vote. Trump did not see it necessary to attend the third debate held on Wednesday evening, November 9, before the primaries that will determine the Republican Party's Presidential candidate. By saying, "Republicans need to stop wasting time on candidates that no one will vote for," Trump signaled that this Presidential race will be a rematch that will only take place between him and Biden.

The election poll conducted by SSRS for CNN between October 27 and November 2 shows that Trump could win the Presidential election with a total of 49% of the vote, four points ahead of Biden. Another point that draws attention is that Trump, who faces a total of 91 felony charges in four different states, is not struggling in the Presidential race despite the legal process he is in. This situation also damages the brand value of the Democratic Party.

Before the 2024 elections, Trump being found guilty in one or two of the cases he may face and a possible 6% shift in votes from Republican voters could determine the winner of the election. Or, if the Republican Party repeats the strategic mistakes it made on the issue of abortion rights in the 2022 midterm elections, it could push its own voters to vote for the Democratic Party. We will see these in the next 12 months.

As of now, there is only one thing left for Biden to do. That is to move the elections to a calmer and more constructive ground, far beyond anger, complaints, and meaningless debates. If Biden steps back and emphasizes what this election means for the country, he might be able to turn the tide back in favor of the Democratic Party against Trump.