What is happening in Texas and the rhetoric of civil war

As a result of the U.S.-Mexico border crisis that has been unfolding in America since January 11, some media and social media accounts in Turkey have claimed that America is heading toward a new civil war and that Texas will declare its independence. These claims are, of course, unrealistic and far from being a possibility. However, they are not entirely baseless, and since the crisis flared up, the same rhetoric has also been appearing in America.

Civil war rhetoric is a narrative that emerged in America after the Civil War, which took place between 1861 and 1865, and has persisted to this day.

Although the Civil War between the South (Confederacy) and the North (Union) did not leave behind seeds of hatred that were impossible to overcome, some have still not closed the book on the Civil War.

Following their defeat in the Civil War, a culture of revenge emerged in the Confederate states, including Texas. While the likelihood of a repeat of the Civil War has gradually decreased to near 'zero' today as America's prosperity has grown, the culture of revenge and the Southern identity formed after the Civil War have been carried forward to the present day.

The desire for revenge is a common phenomenon after wars. Much like the saying that a defeated wrestler never gets enough of wrestling, there are always proponents of a rematch among the members of the side that lost the war. If the number of revenge proponents is high, a revenge identity forms within that society, and this identity is passed down from generation to generation.

After the civil war that lasted more than 150 years in Japan ended in 1615, the leaders of the Choshu Clan, who were on the losing side, would ask their feudal lord every New Year's Day, 'Has the time come?', and the lord would reply, 'No, it has not.'

After continuing this tradition for 253 years, they took their revenge on the Tokugawa Clan, which ruled Japan in 1868, and by ending the Tokugawa Shogunate, they became the de facto decision-makers of Japan alongside the Satsuma Clan.

In America, such a radical revenge identity has not formed. However, there is a significant segment that cannot accept the Confederate defeat, and while this group often does not directly call for civil war, they still view the Northern states as as the 'other,' and they clearly state that they will not hesitate to take up arms against the authority of the United States when necessary. The revanchist spirit in Texas and other Southern states has resurfaced with this latest crisis. The crisis erupted due to the issue of illegal immigration, which has long been uncontrollable. On January 11, the Texas state government closed Shelby Park, located on the banks of the Rio Grande River that separates the United States and Mexico, and ordered the Texas National Guard to position themselves in the area and seal the border with barbed wire.

Shelby Park is a location frequently used by illegal immigrants entering the United States from Mexico. Shortly after the park was closed, a woman and two children drowned in the river. Although the Mexican government stated that the inflatable boat carrying the mother and children never entered U.S. territory, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the three individuals died because they could not enter Shelby Park, and on January 22, it ordered the federal Border Patrol to remove the barbed wire in the park. This order from Washington represents a direct intervention in Texas's internal affairs. It was almost certain that the Supreme Court's decision would trigger a reaction in the Southern states, which have had issues with central authority since the Civil War, and that is exactly what happened. Texas Governor Greg Abbott ignored the court's decision and announced on January 24 that federal officials would not be allowed into the park. 25 other Republican-led states also supported Abbott. In addition to Texas, all 10 states that fought against the North under the Confederate flag during the Civil War are among the 25 states supporting Texas.

Following Abbott's statement, some Republicans suggested that the Texas National Guard might be forced to choose between their state and their country, potentially leading to clashes, and some went even further, openly voicing the possibility of a new civil war.

Following this rhetoric and Texas Governor Abbott's declaration that the state guard would continue to lay barbed wire along the border, some Democrats in Congress demanded that the state guard be disbanded and its current units be incorporated into the U.S. Army.

This demand naturally drew the ire of Republicans, and some who had remained moderate until that point claimed that the federal government intended to incite a new civil war. Some even went as far as to say, "

This demand naturally drew the ire of Republicans, and some who had remained moderate until that point claimed that the federal government intended to incite a new civil war. Some even went as far as to say, "defiedthemlike Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who tweeted, "come and take it." Trump, not missing this opportunity, called on other states to send their national guards to Texas to help protect Texas's sovereignty and maintain its security. This call was accepted by the governors of Oklahoma and Florida.

 However, Biden, not wanting to escalate events, ignored the demands for the dissolution of the national guards and relatively lowered the tension.

Currently, the dissolution of the national guards is off the agenda. However, it is unclear what will happen if federal government officials attempt to remove the barbed wire, and there is a tense standoff between the national guards, who continue to lay barbed wire, and federal army units. Although the tension is likely to escalate, despite everything, a new civil war in America is the last and lowest probability.

The desire for revenge triggered a new civil war in Japan in 1868. However, this war was fought against an administration that could no longer promise anything to Japan, was politically completely bankrupt, and had long since accepted defeat. The feudal system, a medieval regime, needed to be urgently abolished, and a new regime suitable for the spirit of the time had to be established in Japan; the rebel clans that had captured the spirit of the time possessed a more modern and, consequently, effective armed force compared to the Shogunate and its followers. The war led by the Choshu and Satsuma clans was reasonable and relatively at least as necessary as the French Revolution. In America, none of these conditions exist. When it comes to bloodshed, the immigration crisis, which is currently one of America's most serious problems, is reduced to a trivial issue, and furthermore, the armed forces of Texas and the states supporting Texas have no chance against the American army.

In this respect, accepting the rhetoric of the possibility of civil war as an expression of a social culture and assuming that it will remain just talk seems to be the most reasonable approach.