What is happening in Yemen

In the Israel-Hamas War, the Islamic world generally condemned Israel and stood behind Palestine. However, the only party to translate a notable reaction into action was the Houthis, a Shiite group that controls the west of Yemen. The Houthis decided to intervene after the rocket that hit the parking lot of the Al-Ahli Hospital on October 17, and starting from October 19, they began carrying out attacks targeting southern Israel, and from November 19, they began targeting maritime trade linked to Israel in the Red Sea.

The Houthis, who launched an uprising against the Yemeni government in 2004, turned the uprising into a civil war in 2014. The Yemeni state could not cope with the Iranian-backed Houthis. The Houthis captured the capital, Sana'a, and began to advance toward the interior of Yemen. When it became clear that the Yemeni army could not stop the Houthis, Saudi Arabia intervened and, with American support, formed a coalition of Arab countries against the Houthis. Although it was initially thought that the Houthis would be defeated in a short time, this prediction did not come true. The coalition stopped the Houthi advance but could not take back the territory occupied by the Houthis. The civil war that began in 2014 is still ongoing.

The Houthis carried out attacks directly targeting Israel using long-range missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. No success was achieved in these attacks. The vast majority of the missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles sent were shot down in the air by Israeli forces and the American navy. The rest failed to find their targets and fell in irrelevant places.

It can be said that they have achieved partial success in attacks targeting maritime trade. As a result of the attacks they have carried out since November 19, the Houthis boarded two ships and hijacked one of them. They carried out their other attacks with missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, damaging eleven ships. Among the ships they attacked were those with no connection to Israel. It is currently unclear how much damage the maritime trade-based economic warfare waged by the Houthis has caused to Israel, and it appears to have had no visible effect on the course of the war in Gaza. However, they have almost completely ended maritime trade in the southern Red Sea. This means that the Red Sea is largely closed to navigation.

Shipowners have been deterred from using the Suez Canal and have shifted their routes to the south of Africa. This means an increase of up to 6,000 nautical miles in the ships' routes. This development has caused massive financial losses and chain disruptions. Tesla and Volvo paused production at their factories for a certain period due to a lack of parts. Since the increase in the transit time of ships has raised freight prices, everyone directly or indirectly connected to maritime trade passing through the Red Sea is at a loss, except for shipowners whose profits have increased.

The Houthis are not a group with significant offensive power by nature. Although they have shown unexpected resistance against the coalition led by Saudi Arabia in the civil war that has been going on for ten years, their offensive capacity is quite limited. On the other hand, their geographical location serves as a unique force multiplier for an economic war to be waged at sea. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait between Yemen and Djibouti is the only entry and exit gate to the south of the Red Sea. Ships entering the Mediterranean from the Indian Ocean or passing from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean using the Suez Canal must use this bottleneck and inevitably pass in front of the Yemeni coast. This makes them a very easy target. The missiles the Houthis received from Iran are not weapons with significant lethality, and they have not yet been able to sink a ship. However, since their goal is "deterrence," the ammunition fired does not even need to hit the ship. Harassing the target is sufficient. Using the geostrategic advantage of the region they are in, the Houthis have the capacity to carry out a more limited version of the economic warfare that the Germans conducted with submarines in the First and Second World Wars.

With the economic war they are waging, the Houthis have drawn the reaction of even China and Russia, which are often against Israel and America. It was inevitable that Israel and its allies would respond to the Houthi attacks, and the long-awaited response came from America and the UK on January 12. Since January 12, America and the UK have carried out aircraft and cruise missile attacks on Houthi military targets. The targets are currently limited to assets such as weapons and radar that harass maritime trade. The current goal of America and the UK is merely to deter the Houthis and destroy their offensive capacity. However, far from taking a step back, the Houthis have shown their intention to escalate the war by starting to target American and British warships in addition to merchant ships starting from January 14 (all rockets fired were shot down before reaching the warships).

Currently, the indicators point to the conflicts in Yemen intensifying further. The fact that the Red Sea remains closed to navigation is not an acceptable situation and is a problem that needs to be solved as soon as possible. It seems that the Houthis have no intention of taking a step back without stopping the war that Israel is waging in Gaza. It is thought that the Houthis, who have resisted a much stronger coalition for ten years, cannot be stopped by air strikes alone, and this makes a ground operation necessary. However, considering the determination and fighting capacity of the Houthis, a ground operation that America might carry out in Yemen could open the door to new problems in the region.