Are the cold waters of the Baltic Sea heating up?

Following the recent publication by the German newspaper "Bild" of a report prepared by the German Ministry of Defense, which states that Germany and other NATO countries are preparing for a potential attack from Russia in 2025, an increasing number of commentators and strategists have begun to discuss this issue. The same report notes that two years after the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia is expected to mobilize 200,000 troops in February, and that it will attempt to destabilize the situation in the Baltic states between June and July. It is assessed that this would be made possible through Belarus, Russia's ally in the war against Ukraine. Even if this issue is just a scenario, let us not forget that we cannot ignore the fact that an attack on Ukraine occurred from Belarusian territory (from the north) two years ago. 

Given the high political tension in the region and the concentration of numerous NATO military detachments on the borders of Belarus and Russia, it is within the realm of possibility that the intelligence services of the Baltic states are aware of Russia's action plans in this region. Many commentators are of the opinion that the war in Ukraine could spread north to the small, sparsely populated Baltic states. The accession of the Baltic states, which are former Soviet countries, to NATO in 2004 greatly angered Russia. Russia experienced the same sentiment with Finland's accession to NATO in 2023. Claiming that Finland was forcibly "dragged" into NATO, Russia has not hesitated to threaten Finland repeatedly. Russia accuses NATO of creating an artificial conflict between Finland and Russia.

Following these criticisms, Finland decided to strengthen its border by deploying military units. Russia did not remain idle either. The Kremlin announced that the Russian army has begun forming the Leningrad Military District and sending military units to northwestern Russia to strengthen its military posture on the NATO border. Poland has also deployed additional troops to the country's eastern border. If the possibility of Sweden joining NATO, which is also on the agenda in our country, becomes a reality, the Baltic Sea will become a NATO lake and Russia's room for maneuver will be further restricted.

In the coming months, NATO forces will conduct various military exercises in this region. The same German newspaper writes that Russia could attack NATO between November 2024 and January 2025, a period that coincides with the current US president leaving office and the election of the next US president. Russia hopes that Donald Trump will win the election and assesses that "anything can happen" during his term.

The Baltic Sea region and the territory of present-day Poland were important battlefields used in both World War I and World War II. Those familiar with the geography know well that the "Suwalki Corridor," referred to in the Western press as "Europe's most vulnerable spot" and "the next point Putin will attack," is located here. This approximately 100 km strip of land between Lithuania and Poland connects Belarus with Russia's exclave of Kaliningrad. According to many commentators, this is the most dangerous point on the map of Europe. If Russia wanted to confront NATO directly, it would do so in this region. The Suwalki Corridor is the only land strip connecting the Baltic NATO member states to other NATO states.

The Kaliningrad region is of great strategic importance to Russia as it hosts Russia's only ice-free port on the Baltic Sea and Russia's Baltic Sea fleet. The biggest problem is that Kaliningrad has no land border with Russia, which makes the export or import of goods to and from Russia difficult. Last year, political tension in the heavily militarized Kaliningrad region increased significantly after Lithuania announced it would ban the transport of goods to Kaliningrad by rail. However, after several harsh statements from Russia and the insistence of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Lithuania changed its decision. Although not discussed very often in the Russian media, separatist sentiments are quite evident in the Kaliningrad region. In 2014, headlines such as "Kaliningrad and the Ural region want their own republics following the Siberian example," "Kaliningrad is in favor of federalization of the region," and "Crimea has arrived, is Kaliningrad leaving?" were published in the Russian press. Furthermore, many protests were held in 2014 against Russia's actions to annex Crimea. After Russia annexed Crimea, the Baltic states began to worry about their own security.   

A 2015 report by the American think tank RAND states that the Russian army could conquer the 3 Baltic states in a maximum of 60 hours. The fact that these countries could only be reclaimed by NATO after about 180 days demands a revision of the defense plan by increasing the number of troops there. The fact that nearly 25% of the citizens of the Baltic states are of Russian or Belarusian ethnic origin will create a significant stability problem before and after a Russian attack. For example, 2 days ago in Estonia, a Russian professor suspected of spying on behalf of Moscow was arrested.