Russia's Near East

October 7, 2023, the day Hamas attacked Israel, is also the day the already murky waters of the Middle East began to boil. Those familiar with the geography and the conflicts in this region were aware that, given the Middle East's history of violence, this conflict would spread like a domino effect, affecting other countries in the region as well. Yemen is the poorest Arab country, having experienced civil war for years. Houthi rebels in Yemen launched drones and missiles at Israel. They attacked dozens of ships in the Red Sea. These developments have been placed under the microscope by the international public.

Iran's bombing attack on Pakistan, the bombing in Iran, the explosions in Iraq and Syria, and the tense situation on the Lebanon-Israel border are events that neighboring countries view with concern. I will attempt to answer what Russia's stance is regarding these developments in the Middle East and what interests it is pursuing in this region.

We must note that the region we know as the "Middle East" is referred to in Russian academic and media sources as the "Near East," a term used during the Soviet era. The term Near East also expresses the geographical proximity between the regions considered the backyard of the "Soviet home" and the Arab countries.

In the conflict between Hamas and Israel, Russia has adopted a neutral stance toward the parties involved, holding the US responsible for the catastrophe in Gaza. Russia does not view Hamas as a terrorist organization and has expressed its readiness to mediate in the resolution of this conflict. Russia's close monitoring of this geography and the interest it shows in its "Near East" is not new. Following the 1948 Israel-Palestine (Nakba) war, many Arab countries sought help from the USSR against the countries supporting Israel (France, the US, and the UK). The USSR was a major arms supplier to the Arab states in the region.

In general terms, Russia is pursuing two main goals in the Middle East: continuing to import weapons from Iran (imports it depends on to sustain the war in Ukraine) and maintaining its military presence in Syria. Immediately after the collapse of the USSR, Russia was neither present nor active in the Middle East until 2015, when it became militarily involved in Syria. Russia has supported the Damascus regime from the beginning of the civil war in Syria. A change in the Bashar al-Assad regime would have meant, for Russia, the loss of the last Russian stronghold in the Middle East and an important ally in this region. This would also have resulted in Russia losing its two permanent military bases (the airbase in Latakia province and the naval base in Tartus on the Mediterranean).

The outbreak of the conflict between Hamas and Israel benefited Russia. Because for several consecutive months, public attention turned to the conflicts in the Middle East rather than the conflicts in Ukraine. Although Russia diplomatically states that it wants to see peace in the Middle East, it secretly desires the continuation of the war between Hamas and Israel or the emergence of another explosion of violence, as this would mean that US military aid, US attention, and US resources would be directed toward this region rather than Ukraine.

Russia advocates for the resolution of this dispute through the "2-state" formula proposed by the UN, by way of establishing an independent Palestinian state. Russia also defended the Palestinian cause during the Soviet era. However, Russia also has old, friendly relations with Israel. There are more than one million Russian-origin Israelis in Israel, and most of them arrived there after the 1990s. In fact, the close friendship between Russian President Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is also well known. However, this friendship did not prevent the Russian President from comparing the situation in the Gaza Strip to the blockade imposed on Leningrad during World War II. While Putin said in a statement, "Despite all the pressures on both sides, of course, we must also think about the civilian population," he ignores the civilians his own country kills every day with drones or missiles in Ukraine. Here, the double standard frequently used by heads of state is clearly revealed.

There are 22 million Muslims living in Russia. There is a Russia that has had to adopt a neutral position in the Gaza conflicts to prevent mass protests from breaking out among the Muslim population, such as the anti-Semitic attack that took place at the Dagestan airport on October 29, 2023, against Jewish refugees arriving from Israel.

Moscow is embarking on a highly complex and dangerous geopolitical balancing act in the Middle East. Russia's cooperation with Iran—the country's most important ally in the region and also Israel's number one enemy in the region—naturally disturbs Israel and puts it in a difficult position. At the same time, Russia clearly states that it does not want a leadership position in this region, but it definitely wants to be influential and for its economic, energy, and military interests to proceed without obstruction. The establishment of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and Putin's visits to these countries are a clear example of this. Russia provides large quantities of weapons to the Middle East, and the continuation of any armed conflict in these Arab countries also means a further increase in the demand for Russian weapons. After cutting off diplomatic and economic relations with European states and other states that imposed economic restrictions on Russia, Moscow has had to seek allies and friends in the Middle East as well.

The Middle East is an area where the interests of three major external powers (the US, Russia, and China) collide. With its important geopolitical position throughout history, significant hydrocarbon resources, and the international sea routes passing through this region, it has always been and will continue to be a geography desired by great powers. Alongside the other two major external powers, Russia is showing the whole world, with slow but sure steps, that it will continue to make its presence felt in the Middle East effectively for a long time to come.