The great country with a shrinking population

In addition to the war launched against Ukraine, three major problems in Russia continue to worsen: separatism, the economy, and demographics. This article will address the issue of demographics in Russia.

Demographics is the most significant problem for which Russian authorities are seeking an urgent solution. When Putin came to power, demographic policies were among his primary concerns. According to him, the demographic crisis was "a threat to the country's future." He demanded the urgent implementation of a series of reforms (modernizing hospitals, improving the quality of healthcare services, providing financial aid to large families, incentivizing birth rates, etc.) for the protection of families, the restoration of "traditional family" values, and an increase in the birth rate. However, it appears that these measures have not yielded the desired results, as the negative demographic index persists.

Under the conditions of war with a neighboring state, Russia's demographic crisis is entering a new phase. The largest state in the world is facing the risk of not being able to find enough citizens. American researchers label Russia as "a deadly European country like Africa." Russia is searching for a solution to this problem.

Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church has submitted a proposal for the banning of abortion. He sent a letter to the speaker of the State Duma (the lower house of the Russian Federal Parliament) demanding that a law be enacted to ban abortions in private clinics across the country, making them possible only in state clinics. According to the religious leader, such measures would solve the demographic crisis "like a wave of a magic wand." In the view of the Patriarchate of the Russian Orthodox Church: "Abortion is a form of euthanasia for the people, a kind of suicide for the nation." Furthermore, the Patriarch suggested that the task of drafting the bill should not be given to the Health Protection Committee, but to the State Duma Committee on Security and Anti-Corruption.

President Putin also agrees that "the issue of abortion is a serious problem." However, initiating debates on abortion will not be to the president's advantage in the upcoming presidential elections next spring. Some Russian lawmakers argue that Russia cannot escape a deep demographic crisis without an abortion ban. However, experts in demographic policy claim that these measures will not improve the demographic situation and will cause great harm to women. They point to Poland, a European Union member country known for its very restrictive anti-abortion laws, as an example.

So far, abortion has been banned in private clinics in 5 regions of Russia and in Crimea. Fines will be imposed on those who commit to performing abortions. Some lawmakers are introducing legislative proposals that are very difficult to implement, attempting to persuade Russian women not to have abortions, to give birth, and then to hand the child over to the state. These proposals have sparked a wave of debate in Russia. Another inconceivable suggestion from Russian lawmakers is to enact laws that make university education and career advancement difficult for young girls, encouraging early marriage and having many children instead. Although abortion is not legally banned in Russia, some religious groups have been distributing military-themed banners since the beginning of the war with the slogan: "Protect me today so I can protect you tomorrow" or "A country that kills its children cannot achieve prosperity."

According to official data, Russia's population is currently approximately 146 million. The pessimistic scenario of Rosstat, the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, suggests that Russia's population could fall to 134 million over the next 20 years, and experts from the Sociology Department at Moscow State University predict that if the decline in the birth rate continues, only 38 million Russians will live in Russia by 2080.

From the statements of the Russian Orthodox Church, we understand that the cause of the demographic problem in Russia is not the war, but that women are responsible for having abortions. In the world's largest country, women may no longer have the right to decide what they want to do with their bodies. Only men can decide what will happen on behalf of women.

What will happen to women's decision-making autonomy in Russia? Will a woman have the right to decide whether or not to have children? Will women have sexual and reproductive rights? Will a woman's dignity, life, health, and rights over her own body remain? Time will, of course, show the answers to these questions.