The real issue is the Black Sea...

About a week ago, the Russian president's traditional press conference took place. It has become a tradition to answer the questions of Russian citizens at the end of each year. Many topics were discussed during the press conference, which lasted approximately 5 hours. As expected, most of the questions were about the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Putin, who described the war as "a great tragedy, a war between brothers," declared that the war would continue until Russia achieves its goals and would only end once those goals are met.

Let us recall the goals: the neutrality of Ukraine, and its demilitarization and denazification. However, it did not go unnoticed that when asked by foreign journalists, Putin insistently stated that "everyone knows that Odessa is a Russian city." According to Putin, everyone living in southeastern Ukraine has always been pro-Russian. This region was ceded to Russia following the Russo-Ottoman wars. Although many foreign political commentators stated when the war began that Russia wanted to prevent Ukraine's access to the sea by capturing its Black Sea cities, Russia denies these accusations by stating that it wants to achieve the aforementioned goals. However, Putin's statements regarding Odessa show that Russia is actually pursuing other objectives.

ODESSA – THE JEWEL IN THE CROWN OF THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE

The city of Odessa was founded in 1794 by the order of Catherine the Great, two years after the Tsarist victory of the Russian Empire against the Ottoman Empire. For centuries, Odessa has been home to numerous nations. Even today, the ethnic-social structure of Odessa is very diverse. The port city, which has immense strategic importance, represented the USSR's only gateway to the Balkans, the Middle East, and the rest of the world.

The capture of Odessa would cut off Ukraine's connection to the Black Sea and turn it into a landlocked country. This would mean a dramatic blow to the Ukrainian economy. Odessa is the most important port in the Black Sea and is still controlled by Kyiv. Ukraine's third-largest city is very close to the Danube River. It has an international airport and railways passing through this region; it is a point from which goods are exported to the continents of Asia, Africa, and Europe. The Black Sea is an intercontinental port connected to the Mediterranean via the Istanbul Strait and the Dardanelles. Major powers such as Russia, the EU, the US, and China build their geopolitical, geostrategic, political, and economic policy understandings by taking the Black Sea and the neighboring geography into account.

Let us also note that Odessa is only 100 km away from Transnistria (a separatist region in eastern Moldova), where the Russian 14th Army is stationed. This means that if Odessa, and thus the entire Black Sea coast, were to be captured by the Russians, there would be no obstacle left for Russia to reach Transnistria. Today, there is an ammunition depot belonging to Russia in Transnistria, which poses a great danger to Eastern Europe and this region, containing approximately 20,000 tons of ammunition.

Ukraine's counter-offensive against Russia has failed. The hopes of both Ukrainians and Western countries have been dashed. Putin is aware of this. It is becoming increasingly difficult to believe that Ukraine will return to its 1991 borders. An even more pessimistic scenario could even be the loss of new territories if the US and European countries do not provide material and financial aid to Ukraine. In the US, Republicans blocked the $106 billion package proposed by the Biden administration. The results of a Gallup poll show that 41% of Americans believe that "the US is doing too much for Ukraine," while 33% think that "the aid is sufficient." In Europe, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán blocked the approval of 50 billion euros in support.

The Black Sea is a sea where Russia and NATO face each other. If Ukraine and Georgia, along with Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania, were to become part of NATO, Russia's control would become difficult. Therefore, the capture of the Ukrainian coast by Russia would mean preventing the Black Sea from turning into a basin controlled by NATO countries. For Russia, the Black Sea has always been indispensable to its imperial identity.

According to Halford Mackinder's Heartland Theory, whoever rules Eastern Europe (along with the Black Sea) rules the Heartland (the heart of Eurasia). Whoever rules the Heartland rules the World Island. Whoever rules the World Island rules the world. It is evident that Putin has read and been influenced by the works of the British Mackinder, as well as the works of his favorite Russian philosophers such as Vladimir Solovyov, Nikolai Berdyaev, Aleksandr Dugin, Ivan Ilyin, Evgeny Korovin, and Egor Kholmogorov.