The second anniversary of the Ukraine war - Winners and Losers

Two years have passed since no one believed that Russia would attack Ukraine or that a war could break out on the old European continent. Observers of this war have followed the changes that have taken place in Russia, Ukraine, and the entire world over these two years. Between two brotherly nations, after two years of intense conflict, I will attempt to explain in the following lines what significant changes have occurred, and who the losers and winners of this armed conflict are.

One of the reasons for Russia's aggression against Ukraine, was the rumors that Ukraine might become a member of NATO. Russia has always criticized the West's plans to expand NATO. While trying to eliminate this danger, something worse happened. With Finland's accession to NATO, the border between NATO and Russia extended by another 1,300 km. Furthermore, Sweden is also waiting in line to join NATO. 

Another significant institutional change is, the granting of official candidate status for full EU membership to Moldova and Ukraine in 2022, and to Bosnia and Herzegovina and Georgia in 2023.. The outbreak of the war in Ukraine led to the establishment of the European Political Community, an initiative that was launched. 47 countries, including Turkey, created a new pan-European framework for consultation. As many commentators initially stated, Putin did what others could not, even though he did not want to. In other words, he enabled European or NATO member countries to unite and  strengthen their solidarity.

After 2 years of war, there is now a self-confident Russia And we have a Ukraine where morale is no longer as high as it once was. The failure of the counter-offensive against Russia last summer disappointed Ukrainians as well as the international public. All of this has increased a sense of fatigue among European officials as well as ordinary citizens. The West seems to have lost interest in this war. However, the belief that Russia will not stop in Ukraine ensures that the West's interest in this war does not disappear. Moreover, if its military forces are sufficient, Russia will not be satisfied with just occupying Ukraine. Russia wants to control the entire former Soviet space. 

The Russia-Ukraine war has led to the awakening of Russian imperialism. Ukraine has always been seen by Russia as a "shield country" against any military threat that might come from NATO or the EU. Zbigniew Brzezinski, in his famous work "The Grand Chessboard"stated the following: "Without Ukraine, Russia cannot be a Eurasian empire".  In other words, it can only be an Asian empire.

The war has changed the attitude of European countries toward Russia. Before the war, they had warm relations with some countries. But now there is a full-scale arms race. More and more European countries, especially those near Russia, are realizing that they must be prepared for potential Russian aggression. International sanctions have not affected the Russian economy as much as the West had hoped. Russia redirected its exports to countries that have become its main allies in this war, such as China, North Korea, or Iran. Two years later, it seems there are no losers in this war, but

there are certainly "winners." Any war is primarily related to the economy and the arms industry. The war in Ukraine is providing massive profits to arms manufacturing companies. Among the world's 5 largest arms manufacturing companies are American firms, which we can call the only "winners" (in financial terms) of this conflict. US foreign military sales increased last year, reaching a record level of $238 billion. According to the State Department, the US government directly negotiated $81 billion in sales, a 56 percent increase compared to 2022. (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68136840)

In Germany, which has the highest military spending among EU countries, the profits of arms manufacturer Rheinmetall increased by 27 percent in one year, while its shares rose by 55 percent. Russian defense company ROSTEC Russia has increased its ammunition production 50-fold due to the war it is waging in Ukraine. Energy companies have also profited. While the US provided 60 percent of Europe's liquefied natural gas in 2022, Russia's exports to the EU, which provided 40 to 50 percent in previous years, fell to 12 percent.

Although Putin says he is not fighting with Ukraine, but "fighting with the West," the battlefield is still Ukrainian territory, and the victims are the civilian population and Ukrainian and Russian soldiers. Currently, 18 percent of Ukrainian territory is occupied by Russian forces. If Ukraine does not receive financial and military aid from the West, it may lose even more territory in the future.

While Russia seeks to change a unipolar world order that does not align with its own interests, the US and European states want to preserve this order. In this complex equation, what will be the future of Ukraine, whose fate depends on decisions to be made in Moscow, Brussels, or Washington?