2026-2028 Medium-Term Program: Macroeconomic stability? Or poverty?

Our country has been implementing IMF-like stability measures internally for a long time. These stability measures, just as in IMF programs, are built upon the low-income, the poor, the working class, and retirees. This means a transfer of wealth from the poor, retirees, and workers to the capital class.

When we examine the Medium-Term Programs of past periods, we see that they are a series of wishes. We see that none of the economic and financial forecasts in previous programs—such as exchange rates, inflation, national income, budget deficits, tax revenues, or current account deficits—have held true.

In fact, medium-term programs are a roadmap for our country's financial and economic planning. Their most important rhetoric is economic growth and economic stability. However, these two themes are present in all programs but never seem to materialize. This is because the rhetoric of the programs is built on spending. Yet, a program that does not target production does not bring stability or growth.

With this program, sustainable growth and therefore development cannot be achieved, unemployment cannot be prevented, industrialization cannot be ensured, and consequently, the welfare of the people will not increase. Programs should be mandatory and guiding. For this reason, this program is far from being a political document in financial, social, and economic terms. To summarize the program briefly:

-Domestic private savings are projected to remain almost the same between 2024 and 2028. This means the continuation of policies aimed at individuals and the private sector spending what they earn without saving. In other words, citizens will not be able to accumulate savings for a long time to come.

-The contribution of net exports to growth is projected to be 0.2% in 2028, down from 1% in 2024. In other words, it is projected that either exports will increase less than the growth rate or that inefficient products will be exported.

-The foreign trade balance (exports - imports) is projected to be -102 billion dollars in 2028, compared to -82 billion dollars in 2024. This means that imports will continue to trend higher than exports at even increasing rates. This shows that the government's domestic and national industrial policy is not taken seriously even in its own reports.

-While the budget deficit of local administrations is projected to be -9.8 billion TL for 2025, -7.8 billion TL for 2026, and 34 billion TL for 2027, the projection of -363 billion TL for 2028, which is an election year, is a manifestation of the traditional pre-election budget approach.

-The tax burden increasing steadily from 23% in 2024 to 25.3% in 2028 means that the tax burden on the public will increase by another 10%.

-The share allocated to investment in the 2026 budget has fallen to 1 trillion 310 billion TL from 1 trillion 316 billion TL in the 2025 budget. The share of investments in GDP fell from 2.1% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026.

-While revenues in the 2025 budget were at 12 trillion 465 billion TL, they rose to 16 trillion 216 billion TL in 2026 with a 30.9% increase.

-While budget expenditures in 2025 were 14 trillion 674 billion TL, they were increased by 28.99% to 18 trillion 928 billion TL in 2026.

While personnel expenses were 3 trillion 672 billion TL in 2025, they were increased by 33.63% to 4 trillion 907 billion TL in 2026.

While interest expenses were 2 trillion 052 billion TL in 2025, they were increased by 33.57% to 2 trillion 741 billion TL in 2026.

While the tax foregone in 2025 was 3 trillion, it rose to 3.3 trillion in 2026. Twenty-five liras out of every hundred liras of tax have been waived.

GDP in 2025 is projected at 1 trillion 569 billion dollars. It is estimated to rise to 1 trillion 658 billion dollars in 2026 with a 5% increase.

While a growth rate of 3.3% is projected for 2025, 3.8% growth is expected for 2026. Growth below 4% brings impoverishment and contraction.

The inflation rate, estimated at 17.5% for 2025, was revised to 28.5% for the year-end. There is a 62.8% deviation; this figure, projected as 16% for 2026, is not realistic.

While the average exchange rate projected for 2025 is 39.63 TL, it is projected as 46.60 for 2026. These exchange rate forecasts will not hold either.

The social, financial, and economic data we have listed above can be multiplied further. We must urgently return to a production economy; otherwise, our people will pay the price for this casino capitalism (shell game economy) mentality for many more years.

Prof. Dr. Duran BÜLBÜL