Bullets at the border, crisis within

The government in our country is demonstrating sound management by maintaining that war is an unjust crime and by avoiding involvement in the process unless absolutely necessary. 

However, it is clear that those who initiated this unjust war will never be able to account for it to history and the world, and that its effects will continue for a long time even after the war ends.

As these two ignoble, one-and-a-half states claim they will change the regime in Iran, it seems inevitable that these states themselves will primarily experience a change in government. As for the US president, whose name I consider it a disgrace to mention, his legitimacy in his own country will be debated for a long time, and he will not be able to account for this unjust war to his own people.

Our country has paid and continues to pay a heavy price for the long-standing economic crisis. Just as our country thought it had fully recovered from the crisis, a corruption scandal erupted a year ago. Because of this corruption, the public has paid and continues to pay heavy economic costs. Those who engaged in corruption became so brazen that they went as far as to say that whatever they did, they did it for the salvation of the country. Yet, because of this corruption, fuel prices, food prices, interest rates, foreign exchange rates, and our debt have increased even more.

Now, the dreams of these one-and-a-half states that are trying to drag our country into war in one way or another will surely be dashed. Even though our country is not entering the war, the economic cost will be very high. It is said that the economic cost of this war to the US is around 24 billion dollars. It is a fact that the US is offloading this cost onto both its own people and developing countries. The cost of this war to Israel is said to be around 7 billion dollars.

If we briefly evaluate the economic effects of this war on our country: This war has changed all budget projections. Inflation, interest rates, foreign exchange, and fuel prices in our country have completely changed. Although the exchange rate is being suppressed, it will inevitably rise; while the trend of interest rates was downward, they will be tried to be kept stable for a certain period, but an increase seems inevitable. While inflation was projected to fall to single digits, it will exceed 40% again. All these economic deviations mean high price increases and high taxes. This war will seriously affect our exports.

If we make an assessment solely in terms of Central Bank reserves; as of February 27, CBRT reserves are:

Gross reserves: 210.3 billion dollars  

Gold reserves: 136.8 billion dollars  

Foreign exchange reserves: 73.5 billion dollars  

IMF reserve position + SDR: 7.8 billion dollars  

Net reserves: 91.8 billion dollars  

Swap amount: 13.0 billion dollars  

Net reserves excluding swaps: 78.8 billion dollars  

As of March 27, CBRT reserves (billion dollars):

Gross reserves: 155.3  

Gold reserves: 100  

Foreign exchange reserves: 55.3  

IMF reserve position + SDR: 7.8  

Net reserves: 35.1  

Swap amount: 14.9  

Reserves excluding swaps: 20.2  

When we evaluate the Republic of Turkey Central Bank reserves in the one-month period from February 27 to March 27, 2026:

Gross reserves decreased by 55 billion dollars  

Gold reserves decreased by 36.8 billion dollars  

Foreign exchange reserves decreased by 18.2 billion dollars  

Net reserves decreased by 56.7 billion dollars  

Swap amount increased by 1.9 billion dollars  

Reserves excluding swaps decreased by 58.6 billion dollars  

According to the CBRT analytical balance sheet data, it shows that 42 tons of gold swap transactions and 26 tons of gold sales were made last week.

While the total gold sales by the CBRT since March 9 have reached 48.8 tons, the total gold swap transactions have amounted to approximately 76.4 tons. The CBRT's net foreign exchange position is 9.3 billion dollars.

Gross gold reserves stand at 702.5 tons, and net gold reserves stand at 523.5 tons.

As I briefly summarized above, the economic toll of this ongoing unjust war in our region has been heavy, and it will become even heavier.

To compensate for this heavy toll, we will pay an even heavier economic price. Our country is experiencing an economic situation typical of the Second World War.