The Medium-Term Program and the 2025 budget: Hope or illusion?

The 2025-2027 Medium-Term Program (MTP) and the 2025 budget claim to offer a roadmap for economic planning. However, this planning is as notable for its unfulfilled commitments as it is for its promising goals. Prepared by the Presidency's Strategy and Budget Directorate and the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, this policy document prioritizes economic stability and sustainable growth targets while avoiding facing certain realities.

IS THE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH TARGET REALISTIC?

The MTP includes long-term goals such as reducing inflation to single digits, transitioning to a green and digital economy, and increasing R&D and innovation capacity. However, the performance and data from the past year raise questions about how realistic these targets are. For example, the 4.5% growth rate targeted for 2024 deviated from the 3.5% realization estimate. Austerity measures and budget revenues similarly exceeded targets, creating additional burdens.

TAXES AND BORROWING: CHALLENGES AWAITING THE PUBLIC 

The projection of a 37% increase in borrowing in the 2025 budget means that this will be financed through taxes. In other words, the public faces high taxes and price hikes. Furthermore, the fact that the amount of tax revenue foregone in 2025 corresponds to 32.8% of total revenues points to a serious loss of income in public finance. The upward trend in interest expenses is another facet of the economic pressure.

UNEMPLOYMENT AND IMPOVERISHMENT CONTINUE 

Unemployment rates are estimated to rise to 9.6% in the coming period. This reveals a picture where economic growth is not reflected in society equally. When income inequality and poverty combine with inflation, it further strains the welfare of broad segments of the population.

CONCLUSION: BETWEEN CLAIMS AND REALITIES   

Although the 2025-2027 MTP is full of strategic and long-term goals, the realization figures from previous years cast doubt on how much of these goals will be implemented. Attempting to control inflation solely by curbing demand and raising interest rates seems like a method far from achieving economic balance, as it reduces the real income of the public. Therefore, the implementation of fairer and more realistic policies is inevitable. A system where economic stability does not progress in tandem with the welfare of the people cannot be sustainable in the long run.