General elections and identity politics...

It is hard to make sense of current political developments in Turkey. The Republican People's Party (CHP) has gone through interesting times since the moment it emerged as the leading party in the local elections.

Immediately after the local elections, following the announcement that normalization and early elections were off the table, the public's excitement faded and everyone retreated to their corners. Meanwhile, economic hardships, the minimum wage, the desperation of retirees, price hikes, and taxes continued to make their severity felt. It did not stop there, of course; the dog massacre law, the newborn gang, the destruction caused by drugs on the youth, femicides, and public order problems on the streets caused social outrage from time to time.

Now, under the shadow of trustees, a brand-new foreign agent law is also being introduced. The voter, whose excitement was already suppressed after the local elections, will not want to get into trouble by saying anything in this apocalyptic environment. A society that has turned inward and an opposition trying to fight for democracy, justice, and freedom in this environment... To be frank, the Republican People's Party's job is truly very difficult. The arrival of Thursday was evident from Wednesday. Even if we wrote for days, the words to be said would not end... But it would be good to touch upon two issues fundamentally.

1. The Difference Between Local and General Elections:

The Republican People's Party concluded the 2024 local elections as the leading party with extraordinary success. While this provided high motivation to the social opposition, it became an important source of morale for the CHP's new management and organizations regarding the next elections. The government's inability to find solutions to current issues, its failure to find a remedy for high inflation, and the state of retirees and minimum wage earners, who make up a very significant segment of society, were undoubtedly a huge disadvantage for the government. On the other hand, the Republican People's Party's popular mayors, new and young names, and the change experienced in the CHP managed to make the opposition a center of attraction.

After drawing the general framework in this way, it is also necessary to touch upon the difference in voter behavior between local and general elections in recent years. In general elections, the perception of external threats created by the government and high-security-centered campaigns brought strategic voting to the forefront for voters. Therefore, while voters could express their stance in local elections without falling into strategic anxiety or even sometimes not going to the ballot box at all, they went to the ballot box and cast their votes with security concerns in general elections.

Although the government wanted to give the local elections the atmosphere of a general election, for the voter, both the 2019 local elections and the 2024 local elections created a favorable ground to warn the government and to realize the change that it could not find an opportunity for in general politics due to security concerns. In short, it turned into an area where it could move freely by bringing young and new politicians into Turkish politics. So much so that those who did not want to go to the ballot box found their preference in not going in the local elections, and this situation resulted in favor of the opposition in the 2024 local elections, where participation dropped.

At this very point, it would be appropriate to mention the reason for ANAP's loss in the 1989 local elections as an example from the past. According to ANAP officials in 1989, one of the main reasons they lost the election was that participation dropped by about ten points compared to the previous local election. Although some studies revealed that ANAP's failure was far above the participation rate and unrelated to participation, the general belief always continued in this way (Çakmak, 1990). It would not be very accurate to evaluate these days with the conditions of twenty years ago, of course...

Although local elections were seen as a rehearsal for the general ones in the pre-AKP period, it is necessary to determine that different reflexes have begun to develop for the 22-year single-party rule period today. A very simple example; the alliances formed for the opposition in the 2019 local elections did not show the same effect in the 2023 general elections. Strategic voting and security concerns were decisive in the general election results. In short, we can say that general elections and local elections have begun to operate differently in terms of voter behavior.

2. Identity Politics:

CHP Chairman Özgür Özel, both in his speeches before being elected Chairman and in his speeches immediately after being elected, said, "We will not engage in identity politics. Issues that cut across all identities horizontally; such as education, health, unemployment, inflation, livelihood, and anxiety about the future will be on our agenda." This approach was very correct and appropriate...

The most important point where the government has cornered the Republican People's Party until today was identity politics. The only way out of this was to go after the problems that trouble almost every segment of society with an inclusive, egalitarian approach that embraces everyone under the citizenship roof defined by the Republic. As a matter of fact, all the issues we are in today are the government's efforts to manipulate the agenda stemming from its inability to produce solutions to real problems.

While the problem and the solution are known in the final stretch, we are once again facing a general election and a government trying to drag the opposition into identity politics. This should not be a destiny... It is in the hands of the opposition to tear up identity politics and make the people's agenda the agenda of politics. Otherwise, identity politics has turned into a strategy that strengthens security policies on one hand and the perception of external threats on the other, and eventually returns to benefit the government.

As a result, I hope that the differences in voting behavior created by the general election will be taken into account and that the quagmire of identity politics will be exited as soon as possible.

Çakmak, C. C. (1990). 1987 General elections and 1989 local elections: a comparison.